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Old 01-03-2013, 03:12 AM   #8476
AdamSchwartz
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Dreger blowing PM is sfw because Pierre's dick is on top of his neck
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:37 AM   #8477
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

FREE THE NHL!!!

imo
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:43 AM   #8478
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Let's get the leaks going for another day, yes...

Michael Grange
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A couple of encouraging details: #NHL has agreed to two compliance buyouts/team in 2013-14; and variance on contracts in 20% range now
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:57 AM   #8479
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

whats a compliance buyout?
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:56 PM   #8480
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

an amnesty buyout ldo

by variance in contracts at 20% does that mean any year of a contract can be within +/- 20% of the first one or that contracts can change by 20% every year

prob the former

i don't like all these leaks
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:13 PM   #8481
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

we hockey yet? also went to a hockey game last night that was exactly like a sharks game: tons of shots, no goals. ****ing brillant goaltenders duel tho.
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:43 PM   #8482
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
an amnesty buyout ldo

by variance in contracts at 20% does that mean any year of a contract can be within +/- 20% of the first one or that contracts can change by 20% every year

prob the former

i don't like all these leaks
I'm 99% sure it's the former.
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:04 PM   #8483
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Renaud Lavoie ‏@RenLavoieRDS
NHLPA executive board will begin the process to have players approval to disclaim if no agreement is concluded by today.
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:20 PM   #8484
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

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Renaud Lavoie ‏@RenLavoieRDS
NHLPA executive board will begin the process to have players approval to disclaim if no agreement is concluded by today.
They gotta keep it as a bargaining chip, letting the owners know it's still on the table.
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Old 01-03-2013, 03:10 PM   #8485
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

DP guys,

Serious question: Roughly how much longer (if ever) before we can bet on NHL games with a degree of reliability that at least is in the same ZIP code of MLB and/or NFL?
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Old 01-03-2013, 03:50 PM   #8486
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You mean as far as being able to accurately handicap them?
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Old 01-03-2013, 03:52 PM   #8487
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

I think that's what he's getting at, yes.

I learned a long time ago to stay away from playing NHL on ProLine.
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Old 01-03-2013, 03:53 PM   #8488
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Cwizzy,

Yes sir.
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:18 PM   #8489
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

As soon as the entire game changes and 1 single player on the ice has as much impact as a QB or pitcher.
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:20 PM   #8490
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

There are some people doing quite nicely specializing in hockey handicapping.
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:20 PM   #8491
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Well I've been giving this a lot of thought actually, so good timing. As far as moneylines go, preliminary research showed that the Wild were dogs in most games last year even after their run hotter than the sun start, so it seems the bookies had that part figured out at least. I think there are edges to be exploited, but the question is how big are they and where are they?

Check this out, though: http://www.oddsportal.com/hockey/usa...7/#home-away;1

In that game, the vig free Pinny line has MIN as a 57.6%/42.4% favorite over Colorado. At the time, COL is a .508 FenClose team, and MIN is a LOL .440. Colorado ran horrendous at the start of the season and Minny ran awesome, but both were in the middle of regressing either way. I don't know how often Minnesota wins that game, but I'd say Colorado is at least a 55/45 favorite, and that's probably a generous estimate.

I want to try and dabble in some betting this year if I can get some money on a few books, but the edges in moneylines seem to be pretty small from what my one hour of research the other night has shown so far. I do believe there is outrageous value in betting futures, though. I've been planning a futures article for NHLN for quite some time, just waiting for the return of the hockey so people will actually care enough to read it.
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:29 PM   #8492
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Just bet the over on every Flyers game and you will be ScroogeMcduckswimmingingold.jpg
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Old 01-03-2013, 04:31 PM   #8493
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Geddy Lee View Post
I think that's what he's getting at, yes.

I learned a long time ago to stay away from playing NHL on ProLine.
From what I hear they have patched most of the holes now, but back in the day, you could make a lot of money "playing" Proline. One of the best days was the first week of the season, it was as if whoever set the odds were not aware that a lot of players changed teams in the off season.

Just to give you one example, the season after EDM traded 99, you could bet on LA to win their home opener against EDM and get paid 4.6 to win. The true odds of winning were about 33% so that was a pretty sweet overlay. That week, I myself bet out somewhere between 4-500 bucks on 132 different 3-team combinations involving that game. LA won as did a lot of my "connecting" games and I made a profit of about 4 grand.

One more example, the next season, Carolina's home opener was against PIT who won the cup the previous year. They paid 7-1 to win IIRC, their winning chances were about 33% so the overlay was enormous. Luckily, they did infact win, so many people had caught on by then that Proline actually lost money that week LOL and that lead to them tightening up with a lot of new rules and such. What went on until that point was just amazing at times though, I could go on and on.

From what I hear, there are still rare moments where you can find an edge on ProLine but they don't come along very often. Used to be a lot of fun though.

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Old 01-03-2013, 04:32 PM   #8494
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Easiest hockey exploit is to get a coaches pattern down for goalie starts, and bet against backups before they are announced as starters.
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Old 01-03-2013, 05:20 PM   #8495
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamSchwartz View Post
There are some people doing quite nicely specializing in hockey handicapping.
Got any literature on that sort of thing?
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Old 01-03-2013, 05:54 PM   #8496
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

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Old 01-03-2013, 05:58 PM   #8497
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

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Holy s..t! I can't remember ever seeing a better shootout goal. I haven't watched hockey in ages, is there often goals like this scored? If so, maybe someone should start a thread. So beautiful.
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:00 PM   #8498
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

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Originally Posted by AdamSchwartz View Post
There are some people doing quite nicely specializing in hockey handicapping.
Do tell.
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:04 PM   #8499
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Quote:
Originally Posted by cwicemvp12 View Post
I've been planning a futures article for NHLN for quite some time, just waiting for the return of the hockey so people will actually care enough to read it.
I know this is old fashioned, but do you have a mailing list?
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Old 01-03-2013, 06:05 PM   #8500
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Re: Bettman Lockout III Thread (aka NHL Offseason: Now & Forever)

Quote:
Originally Posted by TJay View Post
As soon as the entire game changes and 1 single player on the ice has as much impact as a QB or pitcher.
lol goalies though
and looking at save percentage etc is nice but can be very deceiving. scoring chances, posts hit. watching a team play can give valuable info. watching and evaluating if a goalie is giving space that a player may or may not hit is valuable. form rather than results.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamSchwartz View Post
There are some people doing quite nicely specializing in hockey handicapping.
yes
handicapping goalies, injuries, travel are the obvious.
analyzing style of play, size differences etc. a little more indepth. knowing whats going on behind the scenes, and a teams 'mood' is also of value. hockey often comes down to effort (as opposed to talent), and knowing if a team is focusing or coasting.
even knowing if it's a "fathers" trip can relate to effort given.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TJay View Post
Easiest hockey exploit is to get a coaches pattern down for goalie starts, and bet against backups before they are announced as starters.
with the internet and the ability to get local news feeds it's pretty hard to surprise the informed. more than one site dedicated to "fantasy" goalie news. I paid $10 to a site last year, and it saved me tons of time and money.

tip 1: no nhl team is much more than a -250 favorite. very, very, very rarely would I lay more than that.

tip 2: don't be afraid to fade AdamSchwartz if he's cold

btw, the shootout is great for books. no need to consider ties. I hate them for betting. take a road dog that fights hard (like you knew they would) and instead of getting paid on a +.5 +140, you have to sweat a shootout for your +210.
Spoiler:


If you have other questions or thoughts I would love to get a nhl betting thread in sports betting. It's a **** forum with **** moderators and I can understand wanting to keep the betting in the regular season thread.
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