Kaep probably has Luck in arm strength. Dude has a big league arm. Luck is just better at everything else.

Luck has strength in arm strength vs. Kaep? I would say Kaep has a better deep ball as well and in game speed--luck has no chance in getting 55 yards on a scramble or 100+ yards in a playoff game rushing. But a ton of things luck as the edge on.

Would be surprised if Kaep wasn't always a high variance qb game to game. Quarter to quarter. It's in his blood.

checking down is a skill. maybe Kaepernick needs to be watching more Alex Smith tape.

eta: seriously, though, I wonder how much of it, if any, is a mindset thing. It's a casual fan take, but it does seem at times like he's overly enamored with his own arm and wants to try to make every throw. And (like we saw yesterday obv) 2-3 missed decisions can carry a high cost. Staring down that throw and trying to force it just seems very bad and avoidable.

I doubt it's an arrogance thing. He's just not that good (yet?) at reading a defense, analyzing a situation, calculating risk/reward for different throws, and then making an optimum decision. All of this is done unconsciously within a few seconds, which is why it takes time and experience for QBs to develop. I think it was Steve Young who said it isn't until a quarterback's 5th season until they start to feel truly comfortable at the NFL level. This is part of the reason why you don't want to switch to a rookie quarterback in the middle of a Super Bowl run just cuz he has ze cannon arm.

"Checking down" (if that's what you want to call not locking onto your #1 read until the Kapocalypse is upon us) is, in fact, a skill when it's your 3rd or 4th option that is your best choice on a given play. Doing this well leads to results like your offense being #2 in the league in YPP, #1 in completion %, #1 in interception rate, and top 2 or 3 in yards per attempt. i.e. a highly efficient offense that does not make ******ed risky throws just because omg look at the deep bombs. I leave it up to the casualfan whether this is better or worse than what you saw yesterday.

this has been a consistent compliant from much of the fanbase e/c the most extreme kap homers. he ignores the easy play A LOT.

If only there were an offense that very closely meets your description led by a 2nd year ("Rookie" ITT) QB.

lollllllllllll. Luck's deep ball is insane good already.

Kaep most certainly does not have a better deep ball than Luck.

Kaep goes deep a ton. Like Luck's short to medium route are infinitely better than Kaep. Kaep's strength is his deep ball--issue on the 9ers is other than VD, nobody on this team can really go deep and VD's hands are weak. Deep ball is insanely overrated anyways. I wish Kaep's short to medium accuracy were a ton better and that he didn't believe in his deep ball that much.

Keep is dog**** constantly put in great positions. Even then he ****s up constantly.

kap does not have the ability to survey the field when in the pocket

he stares at one guy for a few seconds. if the guy gets open he throws it, if not he starts scrambling around looking for other receivers that get open (or a running lane)

he needs a full overhaul to be anything other than a gimmick

edit: and if they try the overhaul it'll probably be a long and painful process involving a ton of sacks and sub-rookie errors

loses in the SB in his 7th game and the NFC Championship in his 25th. confirmed overrated bust.

didnt sanchez get to two straight championship games to start his career

By that logic he appears to be regressing

It's almost like having a great defense can help win games.

Who are you referring to here? Foles? I think Foles is really really good and going with him over Vick ROS was an easy choice. Vick was 2-4 as a starter, Foles finished 8-2, and he absolutely demolished Vick statistically when he played (119.2 QB rating). It's not like the Eagles were mid Super Bowl run with a QB who was completing 70% of his passes for 8 yards/attempt and a 104 QB rating, then just decided to say f it and bench him for a ~"rookie". I'm fine with making QB swaps when the younger guy is clearly superior (right now, not some hypothetical time 3-5 years in the future) and you're not rolling the dice in the middle of a Super Bowl run. It's not an analogous situation.

That said, I fully expect Foles to regress next year as defenses learn how to play against him and Chip's offense. Like Kap this year. Defenses adapt and unless Foles is a quarterbacking genius he probably hasn't figured everything out yet.

If you weren't referring to Foles, oops and nevermind.

basically everything that makes foles great is what makes Kaep suck though

Foles is basically already at brady/manning level of going through progressions and finding the open man (just watch some of his game tape and the spread of catches from his receivers)

he lacks the physical ability and arm strength of kaep/luck but makes up for it by not forcing balls (ie barely ever throwing picks) and just being way more in tune with progressions and flow of the game

don't be shocked if foles replicates his stats from this year over a full 16 games (or least comes close with maintaining a high td/int ratio)

this so f'bad its comical, luck probably has the best long ball in the game right now or at least tied with arod...

having a big arm does not make you a good deep ball passer (see jawsh freeman)

luck will never get 100 yards rushing because he doesn't have too, he is certainly big/fast enough to however if his coaches felt the need to limit his passing attempts and design sweep plays for him

Kaep is one bad season away form being demoted to offensive weapon which is probably the best use for his insane running ability anyways

The overall Kaepernick hate is pretty suspect imo, even if he does have glaring flaws. The advanced metrics reflect that he actually recovered to have a very decent season, overall: Kaepernick finished 7th in EPA/P (.16, a slight decrease from .19 last season, but at least somewhat attributable to injuries early in the season) and 8th in WPA/G playing an incredibly hard set of defenses. When adjusted for defense, even his pure passing metrics look good: 7th in DVOA and 8th in DYAR.

If it's a gimmick, it's still an effective one.

Yeah, I still think Kaep could potentially be a stud if he has the brain and personality type to learn from his screwups and develop into a good pocket passer. Who knows how long that will take. It's 100% mental with him (not an in a mental block way, but in a "does he have the metacognitive skills to fix what's wrong" way). His physical tools are through the roof.

I know you know I don't like EPA and WPA all that much, but I'm curious: what is the difference Kaep puts up in these stats when he plays good defenses vs. bad defenses and is it in line with above average QBs? I get the feeling he puts up good to great stats vs. average to poor defenses (because of his athleticism), but craps the bed vs. top defenses (because of his flaws). If that's true, he obviously needs to narrow that gap to win 3-4 straight in the playoffs.

you just cited QB Rating which is a much much worse stat.

Yup. Every stat you listed (EPA too!) Foles/Eagles were at or near the top, but he is generally excluded from the discussion of top 2nd year QBs.

I get it. He didn't play much last year, only 10 games this year, and he's not a great athlete (neither are Brady/Manning). It's almost as if quick, sound decision-making is more important than athleticism and a bazooka arm.

Could Kraep's athleticism hinder his mental development? He'll get less experience working the pocket since he likes to tuck it and go.

He gets a slap on the ass when he ****s up.

Gets worshipped like a hero when he forces it in.

He's never going to learn under these circumstances.

Here's his game log. Just looking at the superficial numbers, he only really had three awful games (@SEA, IND, and CAR), who are 1st, 3rd, and 13th in pass defense by DVOA. (Just as a note, Crabtree wasn't available for any of the three games.) On the other side of the ledger, he put up a very nice game in the divisional round @CAR, put up good games @ARI (5) and @TB (11), played well against SL's average pass defense, and put up a few mediocre performances against good defenses, as a QB of his level is wont to do (SEA, SEA, NO, AZ).

I don't see any drastic splits, really, and it's not like his performances (by EPA or EPA/P) seem to be very polarized. He has trouble against Seattle, but they could be the best pass defense ever, so it seems harsh to hold that too far against him.

what's comical? your apparent hate for the guy? like I don't think kaep is that great EITHER, I'm just saying he does have some strengths. ZOMG, LUCK IS THE BEST PLAYER ALL TIME BS that everyone has here like the guy who ever said anything bad about the guy. The guy is great. To repeatedly say Luck is better than everyone else on this list at everything is a ****ing joke. It's like Kaep isn't good at anything yet in back to back seasons he's gone pretty deep in the playoffs and won 3/4 on the road against some really good/tough teams. Yes I know his D is good. But he's carried the 9ers at times the last 2 years.

This is almost like the Epipen arguments we used to have. McHale doesn't do these things or won't do them but he obviously he has the skill set and could do them if he had to. ZOMG, Kaep is a pretty damn good deep ball. Last year he had the best (he had an absurd accuracy his 2nd year). This year it wasn't as good but still pretty damn good.

http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2013/01...with-accuracy/ (2012 stats)

1. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 33

Completions: 19

Drops: 1

Accuracy percentage: 60.6

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Attempts of 20-plus yards: 62

Completions: 26

Drops: 7

Accuracy percentage: 53.2

2013 Stats:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...-deep-passing/

Kaep doesn't make the top 10 or bottom 10 list, neither does Luck. Wilson is by far the #1 in deep ball % and deep ball accuracy this season after not making it last season.

ZOMG, Kaep is going to be the all time leading NFL QB in playoff rushing, and he's only in his 2nd year starting. i'm really going out on a limb and saying that he is a great rusher in game. Obviously Luck has those same skills at rushing the ball as evidenced by what? Kaep has 507 rushing yards in 6 career playoff games at almost 10 yards per attempt. Andrew has 85 yards in 3 career playoff games and 7 yards per attempt. Obviously still good.