I'm not saying Miami has good receivers. They are probably about the same as the Panthers or slightly better. That makes them well below NFL average.

The only QB's in this group who actually have an above average receiving corps is Jags, Bengals, and Colts. If/when Percy gets healthy Seattle will be average to slightly above average and same for 49ers if Crabtree makes a full recovery (unlikely).

no, but their depth at receiver is definitely better than what most teams have. the dropoff from 2nd and 3rd on pretty much every team listed after the dolphins is massive

You're seriously citing yards per completion and accuracy percentage over a 5-6 game sample? I think you are completely missing the forest for the trees here.

It's great that Tannehill's throwing a lot (though it might be in his best interest; bad runs lead to predictable passing downs). But he hasn't remotely come close to approaching Cam's effectiveness, and I don't think the difference between the Panthers' supporting cast and the Dolphins' is remotely close to explaining the gap in offensive production. The Panthers have been about the 8th-best offense in the league with Cam (despite Rivera!). The Dolphins have been about the 23rd-best offense in the league with Tannehill.

So the discrepancy between time in the pocket and play selection is irrelevant too amirite?

You're citing team statistics when there's a massive difference in supporting cast performance.

It's not irrelevant, it's just not as relevant as you think it is.

edit: if you think the supporting casts (including coaches and playcalling) explain the massive gap in both team and individual production between each QB, we'll simply have to agree to disagree. I don't think it's at all close.

edit again: passing a ton might hurt efficiency stats like EPA/P, but it should definitely be a net benefit to decent QBs on team-level drive stats.

This is a pretty weak argument in the face the multitude of stats you're ignoring.

Time will tell but as of right now it doesn't seem like a debate.

1. where can u find accuracy %?

2. i don't think tweedy's argument is that unfair seeing as how iirc tannehill's still on pace to set the single season record for sacks

3. however only 5 qbs throw deep more infrequently than tannehill and 3 of them are lolgabba gabba, smith and gleenon. now this of course could be a function of a terrible offensive line not allowing deep routes to develop as frequently as tannehill can be able to throw them BUT it still has to be factored in when touting his accuracy when frankly his accuracy hasn't been able to truly be tested. i understand that throwing under pressure isn't easy, but when 86% of your passes are within 15 yards, even with pressure, it stands to reason his accuracy will be high. without looking i assume the 3 people ahead of him are romo, ryan and GOAT?

Rofl I'm not debating how ineffective Lamar Miller is running behind a porous Miami line. You don't need to convince me how much better the Carolina running game is.

They're 5th in 1st down % on running plays at 38.74%, while Miami is 30th at 19.01%. Perhaps picking up twice as many 1st downs via running helps extend drives.

Perhaps having Cam Newton at quarterback helps the running game? I mean, at the risk of stating the obvious here.

Newton has a similar advantage in individual stats to the one he has in team stats, fwiw. That doesn't erase the supporting cast arguments, but Newton crushes Tannehill in EPA and EPA/P, and that doesn't even take into account any positive effect he has on RB runs.

I almost word for word put that sentence in my post but figured I would let you IGGY me.

Yes, I'm aware of what running QB's do for teams' running games. Cam is not world's better than Tannehill at running, and I suspect if Cam were in Miami there would not be as significant a spike in the running game. Teams have to be more disciplined with their contain when they're facing a QB that can move, like Cam or Tannehill. The effect of that QB's running ability is much less apparent when there's quick enough pressure every play. Cam does not see pressure insanely early while Tannehill does.

lol wat

Cam is an ultra mega elite QB runner. Tannehill is fast for a QB but you have to be trolling at this point.

I think we all agree that Tannehill is a good young QB worth keeping an eye on. There's probably close to 20 teams that wouldn't mind having him as their starter right now partly because he looks good but also his cheap rookie contract (lol Flacco). If you tried to trade a QB to Miami I'm not sure there are even 10 guys Miami would trade Tannehill straight up for.

Comparing him to Cam who is a year younger and better in every way is just not a good look though. If you called up Carolina to swap QB's I think they instantly hang up the phone unless you are offering Luck and even then they'll think about it before probably accepting.

.....

So you're saying that if the Panthers threw 68% of the time like the dolphins, they would be a better offense?

These yards/drive stats that you cite are nice for evaluating an entire offense, but it doesn't isolate how effective a team is running and throwing.

The Dolphins are 1st in passing first down % at 76.19%, while Carolina is 28th at 51.35%. Obviously they move the ball better through the air, and they ofc predictably throw it a ton. Yet, they don't have an elite offense. It's almost like running in the NFL matters (*gasp*).

I think you're grossly underrating the impact of a balanced offense (as most of SE does afaict), simply because it's difficult to quantify.



I'm saying we're not talking about Vick vs Peyton or something. I'm not disputing Cam's running ability. He's a significantly better runner, yes. Tannehill is probably a top 10ish runner and Cam is a top 3ish runner (with a decent gap after the top ~5).

Something like - Vick, Cam, RG3, Kaep, Wilson, Pryor...then Luck/Geno/Tannehill/Cutler/Rodgers in some order.

looooooooooooooooool, even from a Cam homer cmonson

It's much closer to correct than what you've been saying.

What current NFL QBs career arc is the absolute minimum you would take to swap for Luck?

Yeah this. Tweedy is ignoring the majority of the data, plain and simple.

If you draft Tanny over Cam in a dynasty draft you're either a raging homer or woefully inept at evaluating the situation.

It's not INSANE to believe Tannehill is a better long term asset than Cam. I think I understand the position. Putting lolstats aside Tannehill has improved dramatically (in before need stats to support my claim). Over certain series, even entire games, his ceiling looks unlimited. Taking these and thinking he can put it all together on a consistent basis with time isn't unreasonable. It's just an opinion of how you feel about his future. In lieu of believing Cam has plateaued it makes a lot of sense.

I'm still taking Cam. Not buying this plateau talk. It sounds similar to Matt Ryan leveled off year three; of course, he didn't. That was widely believed at the time though. It takes several years for quarterbacks to completely geasp the game in ~every instance.

Brees for sure.

Luck seems to be extremely durable and doesn't figure to decline early due to a well-rounded skill set. I would think a Rivers or Roethlisberger arc is a bit thin. Brady/Peyton are obv snap calls due to longevity. Perhaps Brees if he retires like now.

lol what exactly have I ignored

It's literally not possible Cam has plateaued with Rivera and those receivers in the equation. Imagine if he were paired up with Chip and he had more than 1.5 people to throw to.

Tannehill dinks and dunks his way to a nice first 3rd of a season and people want to act like it's not completely asinine to take him over Cam.

I expect this from reddit but not here.

If I understand this question correctly: Tony Romo?

Without the injuries. Although that maybe cheating.

To me the two greatest passing QB's ever are 1. Peyton and 2. Marino. They are so far above everyone else and I'm not sure who I'd put at #3. Marino's 1984 season was so good it took 20 years and enormous changes to how offenses operate for it to finally start to get those records broken. He never posted an ANY/A below 6.07 until his last 2 injury plagued years. He was decades ahead of his time.

I'm really not interested in having this discussion with someone who said Cam wouldn't improve the Dolphins running game.

You clearly have a dog in this fight.

But since you asked, there are several in Das Boot's posts that you didn't address at all. If you want to start with those maybe we can move on to some more later.

Not trying to be a dick btw, just on my phone so quick and to the point it is.

wait, u think scam's plateaued? wat

ORLY

Cam has thrown 81 passes under 10 yards, and 59 passes over 10 yards. 57.8% under 10 yards.

Tannehill has thrown 98 passes under 10 yards, and 72 passes over 10 yards. 57.6% under 10 yards.

LOOK AT TANNEHILL DINKING AND DUNKING .2% MOAR THAN CAM. OBVIOUS FRAUD IS OBVIOUS.