Who will be the best of the 4 "Rookie" QBs (Kaepernick/RG3/Wilson/Luck) in the upcoming season?

The 2012-13 season saw maybe the best rookie QB class the NFL has ever seen.

Kaepernick/RG3/Wilson/Luck:
-All took teams to playoffs in first starting season.
-All within top 11 of QBR: (Kaep #3, RG3 #6, Wilson #8, Luck #11)
-None over age 25.


----------------------------------Quarterbacks:----------------------------------

Colin Kaepernick:
-Took 49ers to Super Bowl
-3rd best QBR last year
-Notable wins: 32-7 vs. CHI, 41-34 @ NE, Postseason wins: 45-31 vs. GB, 28-24 @ Atl




Robert Griffin III:
-7 straight wins at the end of last season (Lost in playoffs to Seahawks)
-Led a bottom of the league Redskins team to the playoffs
-Horrific injury from playoff game made him questionable to even play this season. He's now expected to start week 1
-Notable wins: 17-16 vs. NYG, 31-28 (OT) vs. Bal, 28-18 vs. DAL to clinch playoff spot.




Russell Wilson:
-Short QB that had to fight and claw to get a starting spot
-Led a mediocre team to a top 3 (2?)
-Notable wins: 14-12 vs. GB (lol), 24-23 vs. NE, 23-17 @ Chi, 58-0 vs. Ari, 50-17 vs. Buf, 42-13 vs. SF, Postseason win: 24-14 @ Was




Andrew Luck:
-Led a bottom of the league Colts team to playoffs
-Suck for Luck
-Notable wins: 30-27 vs. GB, 28-16 vs. Hou, 23-20 vs. Min





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All of these QBs had record seasons that raised the bar on what a rookie QB can do. However as teams adjust to the read-option, the question now is how these QBs will fare in the upcoming season and beyond.

And which will regress the most.

expecting Kaep to take it in a landslide, but who knows

If RG3 stays healthy: Luck>RG3>Wilson>Kaep
If RG3 gets injured: Luck>Wilson>Kaep>RG3

You forgot Weeden

Luck gonna Rodgers (but taller!), only a matter of time.

Andrew Luck

what about scam?

Luck is almost certain to pass for the most yards per game started. Griffin is almost certain to rush for the most yards per game started. Wilson is almost certain to have the fewest pass attempts per game started, but advanced stats love him. Kaep is the favorite for the most wins. It's not just about predicting who's going to be better. It's going to be really hard to settle on a metric by which to measure them.

Luck

It will be Rustle, and it won't even be close.

Keep in a landslide. Will be a interesting race for second.

Seriously this just makes me want to kill myself. 4 elite qbs under 25, two of whom were drafted LATER THAN ****ING WEEDEN WHO IS 30 YEARS OLD

GOD ****ING DAMMIT **** YOU BROWNS SO HARD YOU INCOMPETENT ****S

I don't understand saying Wilson led a mediocre team to a top 3. How is that team mediocre?

I voted Wilson, though.

you do know Kaep was drafted a year before Weeden right

Luck gets his old OC back who will leave behind Arians' "**** your comp%, we're going deep" game plan. It'll hurt his total yards but hugely help his comp%.

Luck and Kaep are the top, then RGIII then The Rustler.

they were*, 7-9 in 2011

Next season only:
Wilson
Kaep
Luck
RG3 (shouldn't start the season)

Expecting Seattle to be the best team in the league.

For next year I would say:

Wins: Kaep > Rustler > Luck > RG3 (injury risks)
Yardage: Luck > Kaep > RG3 > Rustler
Completion: Rustler > RG3 > Kaep > Luck
QBR: Kaep > Rustler > RG3 > Luck

Injury issues I think are a huge deal for RG3 especially since he was so running dependent.

Long term overall, I'd still go Luck > Kaep > RG3 = Rustler although I think the gap between Luck and everyone else isn't as large as everyone expected to be. I could easily wrong about that though. Kaep could easily struggle without Crab. And I definitely could be underrating Percy. Indy does get the benefit of a soft division as well.

With my above caveat, I think that, given that Wilson gained Harvin and Kaep lost Crabtree, I think it's Wilson > Luck > RG3* ~ Kaep

* = pending injury

Seattle has to deal with the suspensions. 9ers need to deal with injuries. Skins obviously need to deal with RG3 injuries as well as their definsive guys who are coming back. Indy needs to deal with a change in HC.

Well, not really.

They have a change at OC, but it's just Luck and Fleener's college OC.

Luck is going from a hugely vertical passing game to a 2TE West Coast system. He's pretty unlikely to be where you have him here.

Luck is a ~lock to make a massive leap this year. Young QB's have to take their lumps one way or another. Luck attempted 200+ more passes than Griffin and Wilson, threw downfield more than any QB in the league, and ran a much tougher offense than any of the others. He has every attribute you look for in a QB and has a bunch more experience than the others.

you forgot:

So, last year you had Luck at 54% completion % to RG3s 66% and Rustler's 64% and Kaep's 62.5%. You really think Luck makes that much of a leap? At the same time, I expect RG/Rustler/Kaep to get more accurate. Kaep was pretty marginal in short passes which a year of offseason programs can help. Rustler gets Harvin. RG3 might be the one who drops if he goes down field more.

QBR was pretty tight. Basically coinflips there. The gaps between these aren't very far.

You think Yardage is wrong? Rustler doesn't get too many attempts. RG3 is hurt. And LUck still has by far the worst running game of the 4.