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Medvedev should be a very clear favourite here, right? He's 1.57 on Betfair and this seems like a steal to me.
I think he is, Medvedev has looked really sharp the last couple of matches. He's already won a GS too so he won't have as much nerves as the last time they met. Nadal is still coming back from an injury too and I don't his conditioning is 100% yet so if it goes the distance I expect Med to have an advantage.