wow they stats from the first set.

Delpo beat Zverev the False Prophet in the Acapulco 500 semifinals yesterday, faces Kevin Anderson in the finals today (?).

Rafa announces his steroid cycle requires him to sit out Indian Wells and Miami in order to peak at Roland Garros.

Wawrinka is sitting out because of injury.

And the stage is set for thread hero Grigor to TAKE THEM BOTH DOWN, as long as someone else can beat Raja for him.

Rafa needs to roid up in order to win the French? lol

At this point, all the young guys are false prophets imo, whether Zverev or Dimitrov or whoever, until they show they can consistently beat the Olds to win GS's.

Is Raja even playing at RG? I assumed he would just sit out again and be fresher for Wimbledon.

I assume Fed will sit out all clay events.

And yes, Nadal is made of glass and needs the roid milkshakes to win.

I think Roger, will sit out they clay events too. Rubbish part of the season.

Anyway, lets say Rafa pulls out of the FO - does he play it?

No Stan, No Rafa, No Andy, No Novak. Thiem though?

If Rafa pulled out of the FO with enough time for Fed to play a pre-FO clay tourney or two, then I think that Fed should try to win the FO.

Nadal is playing the FO so let's put that to rest now.

If by some miracle he didn't then you have to put a guy like Thiem up there for sure. Hell guys like Cilic who had his best career performance there last year and Monfils would be two guys I'd look at depending on draw.

Looks like we might see a repeat of last year. Fed won the Australian, Nadal is gonna win the French, Fed is gonna win Wimbledon, and the only question mark is who will win the US Open?

Are we really in 2017-2018, or did the simulation glitch and take us back to 2006-2007?

I'm going to be attending Indian Wells coming up

Monfils? Lol

It was just a thought.
Also this.

WTF you thinking about Monfils isn't anywhere near good enough or consistent enough to even fluke a slam.

Both are super long shots, but if they were the only choices, which if these Olds is more likely to win the French:

Ferrer or Monfils

That's a tough one, good Q. Both are unlikely, but Ferrer is starting to look almost done, at 35, almost 36, while Monfils is only 31.

I think Monfils consistently goes deeper nowadays, and is more likely to go deeper in the French this year than Ferrer, and if there were no Nadal, then I would say that Monfils has a greater (but still small) chance to win than Ferrer.

Monfils also has shorter odds (greater chance to win) according to online books, fwiw. Monfils has approx 50/1 to 80/1 odds, vs Ferrer's 100/1 to 150/1.

But when you count on Nadal playing and likely winning, you have to think that Ferrer has more chance against him than Monfils. Monfils has only beaten Nadal 2 times in his career, both on hard, the last time in 2012. Ferrer has beaten Nadal 6 times, mainly on hard, but including once on grass and once on clay, in 2014. Ferrer has reached the Finals of the French before, whereas Monfils never has. So it's unlikely, but if Ferrer can find the fountain of youth, he has more of a possibility of beating Nadal and winning the French than Monfils does imo.

Basically, Monfils has a greater average chance of going deeper than Ferrer, but Ferrer has a higher ceiling and a greater (but still small) chance of pulling off the miracle and winning the whole shebang.

It's his best Grand Slam if none of the big guns and then some weren't there you have to pick someone.

He's played in 8 French since 2008 and has 1 SF, 3 QF, 2 4R in that stretch. If you take out all the names people mentioned above who has a better resume? I don't know the answer either but I feel like it isn't a large bunch of guys.

Gael is having a pretty good start to the year as well.

patron--

Good analysis. You've convinced me to accept your positions.

Ferrer has no chance in this matchup. He's made the 4th Round once in his last 8 Grand Slams. Gael has 2 4R, 1 QF, 1 SF in that stretch.

Even more! Gael has his 2 best years in Slams in 14 and 16 which are also years he won tites. He won Doha this year, deep run coming somewhere.

Thanks.

By this standard, Ferrer has 1 F, 1 SF, 2 QF, & 2 4R. That's much better.

Did you even read what I wrote? I already said that "Ferrer is starting to look almost done," and that "I think Monfils consistently goes deeper nowadays, and is more likely to go deeper in the French this year than Ferrer, and if there were no Nadal, then I would say that Monfils has a greater (but still small) chance to win than Ferrer."

That is what your analysis supports, and I agree with that. However, to win the French, you are most likely going to have to go through Nadal.

As I already demonstrated, Monfils has almost no shot at taking down Nadal on clay. Ferrer doesn't have much of a shot either, but he's got a better chance than Monfils. And that's a huge factor in assessing someone's chances to win the French this year.

Well my argument was based around no Rafa and no big guns so my bad

I see, we were talking about different things, I guess. I see that your initial post mentioning Monfils was based on no Rafa. However, my post was addressing Feldman's questions, which is the first time that Ferrer was mentioned. Anyway, it seems that we mainly agree on the Monfils vs Ferrer issue then.

As far as Monfils alone, without Nadal, then I agree that he has a better chance than Ferrer. But I do not agree that he is a guy that I would look at as having much chance, even without Nadal. Guys favored more than Monfils are:

Djokovic
Thiem
Federer (I guess this is the chance that he plays, as his odds would be shorter if it were confirmed that he is playing, and non-existent if he were not to play.)
Wawrinka
Zverev
Kyrgios
Goffin
Del Potro
Nishikori
Dimitrov
Chung
Shapalov
Cilic
Pouille
Khachanov
Schwartzman
Raonic

Now, odds are not necessarily the end all/be all, but that's 17 guys with a greater chance than Monfils, some of them with much, much more chance. So if you were looking for longshots, sure, you can look at anyone, but if you were looking for someone with a reasonable chance, Monfils is not one of them.

Without Nadal, the list would be Djokovic, Thiem, Wawrinka, and Fed if he were playing. Anyone else would be a pretty big longshot, and the only reasonable dark horses imo would be Zverev and a few more spots down the list, maybe down to Cilic at most. All just imo, of course, but supported by odds and data.

And none of this is meant to discourage discussion or people sharing their own opinions, I'm just replying and giving my thoughts and assessments in response.

Indian Wells update (it starts the 8th or something)-- apparently they're offering a million dollar bonus on top the normal price money for each to anyone that wins singles and doubles.

I like it.

Great idea.

Men's singles draw for Indian Wells

http://11f4k830or6yrwagw43qiccz-wpen...018/03/MDS.pdf

Milos Raonic really fell off a cliff since mid-2017.

Also weird to watch a 30-something like Kevin Anderson seemingly pop up out of nowhere to become a top 10 player.