Lol Murca.

Yup. There's a whole thread for that in fact. Can't deny that after the past year that we've had.

But back to tennis for now.

Fed in the post-match interview: knew he wasn't right coming into the tournament, didn't want to say he had a negative mindset, but "knew he wasn't safe." "Wasn't right in my mind, my body, or my game, and if you don't have those 3 pillars..."

Is he referring to his back injury, or something else?

It's not just age, because he looked like 75% of himself at the Australian and Wimbledon earlier this year. Maybe only 50% of Peak Fed.

I think Nadal might absolutely butcher Delpo tbh.

Looks likely Nadal's forehand will abuse Del Potro's hampered backhand, aided by the new higher bouncing surface.

Just realized Carreno Busta is in the SF without even dropping a set lol

Nadal -250, Del Potro +235, which is about 70% Nadal, 30% Del Potro.

If Nadal wins this one, he's got a good shot at 19. It's just incredible that the GOAT GS record chase is still going on. Could end up 21-20 or something ridiculous. More ridiculous, I should say, it's already ridiculous at 19-15.

Nadal isn't burning catching Fed

No, he probably isn't. But it's not unthinkable that he'd have a shot. If he wins this he's at 16. Favorite to win the next FO could make it 17. Decent chance to win one of next year's AO or USO or even Wimb if Fed is hurt gives him a chance at 18. Then a future FO or other is not out of the question to make it 19.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it's definitely possible.

A lot will depend on Zverev, Rublev, Shapovalov, etc., if they break through to the top level as fast as Nadal, Djokovic and Murray did, it will be hard for Nadal to add more slams. Zverev already broke through of course, but still hasn't reached a slam QF.

Sure, but people have been saying that for a while, and no young up and comer has broken through to win GS's yet. There have been plenty of young up and comers that never went anywhere. In fact, since '06, nobody at all has won a GS outside of mainly the Big 3, a few by Murray and Wawrinka, and 1 each by Del Potro and Cilic. The primary competition is still those 7.

Yes, someday the young guys will have to take over, and the old guys will get too old and fade, but that day doesn't appear to be here yet. And over the next year or two, the primary competition for Nadal is the current 6 others. With that in mind, it is still unlikely for him to get to 19, but my above path is still viable, and if he gets stopped, it is far more likely to be by the current 6 others, rather than young 18-20 year olds.

Think you're just not realizing how hard it is for guys like Nadal/Fed to put years like they have this year together. 27 year old Nadal came back from injury in 2013 and rolled through the 2013 US Open, then the 2014 AO and it seemed like he was well on his way to catching Fed. Then he got hurt in the final, lost to Stan, scraped by in the FO bc he's Nadal, and didn't make a slam SF until the 2017 AO. It's just extremely unlikely that Nadal continues to combine this level of play with solid health. Enjoy it while you can imo.

I hope Del Potro ends his career.

Australian Open draw has a lot of potential for hilarity if all injured top players come back with lower rankings.

Geoff, I agree, but you're mainly talking about injury risk, which is increased due to age, and not primarily play level. If healthy and uninjured, his play level should be close to this year's.

So you may think that injury risk is even higher than I do (although I also think it's likely, just perhaps not quite as likely as you), but if he does somehow stay healthy and uninjured, it's not inconceivable that the above scenario happens.

And you also have to factor in the level of competition. The competition is primarily going to come from the current 6 others, moreso than young guys, and the current 6 are also old and injury-prone. The competition is weaker than it was 5-10 years ago, which gives him greater chance if healthy and uninjured or even if 80-90%.

*

Chrizza, good point. Could be another awful bracket like this US Open or even worse, with better players meeting even earlier.

Best Slam gonna be so juicy

Welpotro 100% mortal lock to get gaped by NADAL in straight sets.

Pinny has Nadal -2.5 sets +206, Del Potro +2.5 sets -220, so you can triple your money on a mortal lock if you think so.

Gotta cheer for DelPo.

Everybody likes a feel good story.

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Threw some pennies at Nadal 3-0 at ~3 to 1

Feel like Del Potro has held his own against Nadal on hard courts. Would have guessed like a 35% chance of winning.

He has. Del Potro is 5-4 against Nadal on hard courts and has won their last couple matchups, as well as their only US Open face-off, where he blew Nadal out 6-2, 6-2, 6-2, although that was way back in '09.

Given this year's play, Nadal is still the favorite, but Del Potro matches up well and can beat him, if he plays like he did yesterday when he was even more of an underdog against Fed. Unless he blew his wad against Fed and in the 5-setter previously.

So I just checked... Del Potro is the first seeded player Nadal has faced this tournament. So, assuming he wins this tournament, his path will have been: Unseeded x5, 24, 12/28. Forgetting for a minute that Del Potro is obviously a more difficult opponent than your typical 24th seed, has he (has anyone!?) ever had an easier path to a title lol?

I just checked, and it seems that the answer is no. If Nadal wins, he will have had the easiest path ever to a title at the US Open (by seeds). Just another confirmation that the brackets this year are literally the WOAT. Change the ranking/seeding methodology, it's broken.

It's not just the seeding. Like the biggest issue was him and fed being in same half, but that is supposed to make his draw HARDER. It's just that the "good" players at the moment are all historically bad or theyre injured.