Quote:
Originally Posted by patron
Missed Melkerson's followup previously, here's a reply.
I fully agree. And I think we saw some of that this tourney.
"Meanwhile, there is zero evidence that Nadal was gonna win no matter what." The zero evidence part is referring to Nadal winning "no matter what." You've backed off of that since then, but that is what I was referencing at the time. I was not saying that there is zero evidence that Nadal could beat Fed or knocking Nadal or anything like that, I think Nadal is great and the 2GOAT. I was simply pointing out that he wasn't winning "no matter what."
That said, I made the points about Fed being likely to win because it's true, and because it refutes the Nadal winning no matter what point. Fed was more favored to win the tournament than Nadal was, and Fed would likely have been favored in a matchup against Nadal in they met in the SF's, barring further injury. I am not making these points to elevate Fed and dismiss Nadal or litigate their entire careers, I am simply pointing it out as is relevant to this particular tournament and who would have been more likely to win, and if Nadal would have won no matter what or not, or even if that was more likely than not.
In reference to your points, yes, Nadal has dominated Fed H2H lifetime overall. That is a point in Nadal's favor. However, much of that is not relevant to this US Open. Clay results from years ago are not nearly as relevant as hard court results from this current year. Their AO match was close. But that's not the only relevant result. Fed won 2 other hard court matches this year, in straight sets, 4-0 altogether, for 7-2 on hard this year. Those results are relevant to this US Open in a hypothetical Nadal-Fed matchup. I am not bringing this up to litigate their entire careers, but simply as evidence pointing towards the outcome of a USO matchup this year.
And so that Geoff doesn't misunderstand this, I used Fed because the evidence from this year is clear. It was used against the "Nadal no matter what" claim, not a career thing. I could have used a healthy Djokovic or others referenced, but Fed was the easiest and clearest example to use, esp since he's the one that was expected to actually face Nadal.
This misrepresents my statements. I was pointing out your false statement and backed it up with evidence. There indeed was zero evidence that Nadal would have "won no matter what," and you've backed off of that. But it was a relevant point at the time.
And the likely outcome of a matchup at the USO this year is not complete speculation in terms of which is more likely. The set of facts points one way and not the other. Either could obviously still have happened though. I made zero extreme claims, I was refuting an extreme claim. Hope that helps.
Look man, I don't know what to tell you. I clarified the "no matter what". In case it's not clear from my earlier post it's not meant to be taken literally. If that's all you're trying to disprove it's way simpler than what you're doing. Rafa could slip and tear his ACL mid match and retire. An angry fed fan could jump out of the stands and stab him in the back. It is impossible for anyone to claim in a literal sense that A would beat B, "no matter what". That's obvious to anyone and when you decided to focus on it, I tried to clear it up for you. My mistake for not realizing that someone might take it that literallly. But for someone who did, you are taking the absolutely most convoluted way to prove what is clearly a trivial point.
So, congratulations, we both agree that "Rafa would have beaten Fed no matter what" is false in the absolute literal sense. I was wrong to write what I meant that way and I could have been clearer.
Here's the real argument: I think it's overwhelmingly likely Rafa would have beaten Fed had they faced each other. You think it's the reverse. We're both speculating. Proving one side of that or the other is not possible. For some reason, you think you can do that, but you can't. No one can.