The 43rd Ryder Cup, Whistling Straits, Wisconsin
09-20-2021
, 02:48 PM
The best sporting event in the world returns this Friday through Sunday from the shores of Lake Michigan.
Europe seeks to continue it's recent domination of the event coming off a 17.5-10.5 drubbing of the Americans outside Paris in 2018 to give them seven victories in the last nine cups.
For the Americans, an absurdly stacked team with 11 of the top 16 ranked players in the world will go into the event as big favo(u)rites.
The Course
The Straits is a 7800 yard long beast of a course featuring two Par 5's over 600 yards and four Par 4's of 490+ yards. This is a course where length off the tee has been paramount to success over the years. Course designer and noted Riverman nemesis Pete Dye took a break from his forced carry/forced layup style of course design to create a links style course. His design is not without criticism - metric ****tons of dirt and sand were moved into the old abandoned military base and the result is a course with over 1,000 bunkers, many of which out of play and has an anachronistic feel to it. This is the course where Dustin Johnson famously grounded his club in one of Dye's "bunkers" and cost himself the PGA Championship in the process.
The course has a reputation of being extremely difficult though it is likely that U.S Captain Steve Stricker will attempt to set it up as easily as possible to suit his battalion of birdie machines - though how possible that is on a course like the Straits remains to be seen. I expect that scoring will be especially tough in the morning sessions where the forecast is for cool temperatures and the ball will not travel as well. I suspect this is why Stricker has also opted to reverse the format from Paris and have his fourball matches in the afternoon - the format in which making birdies is slightly more valuable.
The Teams
Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele
Almost guaranteed to be a pairing for the Americans having lots of history and success playing with each other in the Presidents Cup and the Zurich Classic. They are very similar players with similar length which makes them an attractive Foursomes pairing in particular. Cantlay is fresh off the best season of his career with his his Fedex Cup win (Schauffele was 3rd), while Xander won the Olympic gold in Tokyo this summer. Both are terrific iron players.
Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas
Another more or less guaranteed pairing for the US of two longtime friends. They were basically the only players to show up and play well in France 3 years ago. This is also a logical partnership between two similar players who can be genius iron players and have great hands around the green but the ability to be a bit wayward on occasion with the driver. Neither will be flustered by any situation their partner leaves them in as they are used to it themselves and they are both natural shot-makers. This is another pairing that instinctually seems suited for foursomes, especially the holes where Thomas gets to hit the approach for Spieth to putt, but the fact that both were in the top 10 on tour in birdie or better percentage last year makes me think Fourball may actually be their best format.
Dustin Johnson
The World #2 hasn't won on the PGA Tour since his annihilation of the field at the November Masters last year. One would think that the course would suit his length very well. He hasn't always performed well in the team formats with a poor 4-8 record for a player of his caliber though he has gone 3-1 in the singles matches. His personality is laid back almost to the point of malaise - he offered this very DJ like take on Ryder Cup performance recently:
Collin Morikawa
Golf's newest prodigy already has two majors by 24 after winning The Open this summer at Royal St. George's. The best irons player on Tour by some distance, Morikawa is basically Tiger Woods with worse putting. He's shown the ability to play his best in situations that other players would fade in. I think it's highly likely that he and DJ will be a foursomes partnership as they already use the same TaylorMade ball which is a deviation from most of the American team who use Titleist. It sounds stupid but these players used to their own ball can struggle when using one they are a bit less familiar with, or so they say.
Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka
Probably the two golfers least likely to play together this weekend. Both are very talented but both have the ability to create a headache for Steve Stricker trying to match them up with a partner as neither have campaigned for universal popularity in their time on tour. Koepka has a decent Ryder Cup record while DeChambeau was a Captain's pick of Jim Furyk in Paris and he went 0-3 with huge losses while partnering Woods and Mickelson in foursomes. Playing Bryson twice in Foursomes and not in Fourballs was insanely bad captaincy and Stricker will surely unleash him in the format where he can play his own ball, his own style to a degree, and make a million birdies (he led the tour in BoB% this year) without worrying about the occasional double bogey. I think if Stricker gets this right Bryson will be a huge weapon. Koepka is nursing two recent surgically repaired knees and an event more recent wrist injury but if the course is even close to as hard as usual that will be up his alley - no one in the world plays hard courses as consistently well as he does.
In terms of partners I would be shocked if the captains picks hadn't all been asked about their potential viability with either player.
Tony Finau
The popular Finau finally won again on Tour recently to secure an automatic spot on the team. Another guy who hammers the ball off the tee and should be a big weapon on a course as long as WS. He played well in Paris and was underutilized by Furyk. He is the most likely player in my mind to partner either Koepka or DeChambeau given he matches their skill sets to some degree and has a laidback attitude. He partnered Koepka in both his pairs matches in 2018 and played once with Bryson in the 2019 President's Cup.
Scottie Scheffler
Another huge bomber with the driver that seemed a natural Captains pick despite the fact he has never won on Tour. He came 2nd in the WGC Matchplay this year which endeared him to Stricker. There are some doubts about him when under heavy pressure - "Sunday Scheffler" a term beginning to be well known in golf betting and DFS circles - and not as a compliment. His swing is extremely loose even in normal circumstances and this lack of structure has been theorized as being hurtful to him when the stakes ramp up.
Daniel Berger and Harris English
Two sorta milquetoast guys rounded out Stricker's captains picks. Berger has a bit of bulldog in him and could be a tough out in singles. Both are obviously very capable players although English especially is not great off the tee (91st on Tour in Strokes Gained) and it may not be the best setup for him.
Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy
These guys won't play together but I have grouped them together to highlight their importance. Europe doesn't have the team depth that the USA does and so the burden on their top players to perform is greater. Rahm and McIlroy are the only two truly world class players in captain Padraig Harrington's arsenal and so it seems almost guaranteed that both will play all 5 sessions and that they will need 3+ points each if Europe is going to win the trophy.
Rahm is the #1 player in the world and has been on a scintillating run of form over the last few months including his first Major Championship. There aren't too many indications of who his partners will be although compatriot Sergio Garcia has been thrown out there as a possibility.
I think it is more likely Sergio could play with McIlroy, especially in Foursomes as both use a TaylorMade ball. Rory was basically the only European to show up in Hazeltine in 2016 the last time the tournament was played in America. He will need to deliver a repeat performance and his form has turned a corner recently.
Viktor Hovland
Youngster Hovland is easily the next best player on Team Europe. I am particularly interested to see how much Harrington uses him. I think it would be crazy not to play him all 5 sessions (depending on performance) and hopefully the cliched "wisdom" of him being a Ryder Cup rookie doesn't detract from that. It will be mandatory for him to play fourballs at the very least - Europe is very short on prolific birdie makers of which Hovland is one of the best.
There has been talk of pairing him with Rahm which, to me, is a luxury that Europe cannot afford. I think that both Rahm and Hovland will be required to do the heavy lifting in partnerships of their own.
Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter
These two captain's picks are consummate Ryder Cup players with excellent records. Garcia is 22-12-7 over the years and Poulter is a dazzling 14-6-2 for a player of his relatively limited ability (to the others in the field).
Both will need to capture as much Ryder Cup magic as they are able to this week. Garcia's record at WS is MC-T54-MC and he has called it the hardest course he's ever played. Poulter has never broken 70 in 9 career rounds here and his lack of distance off the tee is a huge handicap to overcome. Sergio at least has the ball-striking ability to ostensibly compete around WS and he is in good form. For Poulter to continue his Ryder Cup success you would think a magical weekend with the putter will be necessary. He was 3rd on the PGA Tour last year in SG:Putting.
Tommy Fleetwood
A miserable two seasons have seen Fleetwood fall from 10th in the World to his current spot of 36th. However his last few performances have been okay and maybe a corner is turning. Along with Francesco Molinari he was terrific in France in 2019 but the Italian is not here this time. The 3rd TaylorMade golf ball user in the team along with Garcia and McIlroy, both of those guys are potential partners in my mind.
Fleetwood was a shocking T145th on the PGA tour in SG: Off The Tee this past season. A repeat of that kind of driving at WS will make for a miserable week.
Paul Casey
A happy-go-lucky guy who was almost certainly a great hang at ASU is also guy who I think will be sneakily important for Europe. He has lots of experience in America and is a good player on hard courses with his ball striking.
Tyrrell Hatton
A not so happy-go-lucky guy who is definitely the most entertaining player on Tour with his self-loathing antics. Got all the way up to #5 in the world earlier this summer but is not in good form at the moment. An excellent iron player and an excellent putter, he played with Casey in France and I don't see why that partnership couldn't be competitive here too.
Shane Lowry
The Irish bear was an obvious captain's pick for countryman Padraig Harrington. He plays in America and has been in good from (especially ball striking) for a couple months now.
Has a history of playing well in windy conditions including his Open win which could be a bonus around WS.
Matt Fitzpatrick
A grinder type of golfer who has turned into a good driver of the ball and has always been an excellent putter. His irons are the big weakness in his game. If he is paired in a match with Bryson I'm sure you will hear the broadcast make mention of his comments in which he labeled DeChambeau's style of golf "daft" and not requiring skill, although I believe the two have spoken and there is no animosity.
Lee Westwood & Bernd Wiesberger
Two guys that probably wouldn't have made the team if Harrington had been able to have it all his own way. Realistically both guys play much better on shorter courses and could be overmatched by WS and team USA. I doubt we will see them more than once before Sunday's singles matches.
Broadcast Schedule
The morning matches tee off Friday and Saturday at 8AM Eastern/1PM Britain.
Coverage is on NBC in the USA and BBC in the UK.
Odds
The USA are -188 to Win/Lift the Trophy.
Europe are +188 to Win, +150 to Lift the Trophy.
I've looked through the various markets and nothing has really caught my eye except Viktor Hovland to be the top European rookie at even money. His competition is Lowry and Wiesberger and he will play more and is better than both those guys.
Once the individual matches are available I think I will look to target the Americans in fourball, and maybe try to find some value on the Europeans in the foursomes.
Europe seeks to continue it's recent domination of the event coming off a 17.5-10.5 drubbing of the Americans outside Paris in 2018 to give them seven victories in the last nine cups.
For the Americans, an absurdly stacked team with 11 of the top 16 ranked players in the world will go into the event as big favo(u)rites.
The Course
The Straits is a 7800 yard long beast of a course featuring two Par 5's over 600 yards and four Par 4's of 490+ yards. This is a course where length off the tee has been paramount to success over the years. Course designer and noted Riverman nemesis Pete Dye took a break from his forced carry/forced layup style of course design to create a links style course. His design is not without criticism - metric ****tons of dirt and sand were moved into the old abandoned military base and the result is a course with over 1,000 bunkers, many of which out of play and has an anachronistic feel to it. This is the course where Dustin Johnson famously grounded his club in one of Dye's "bunkers" and cost himself the PGA Championship in the process.
The course has a reputation of being extremely difficult though it is likely that U.S Captain Steve Stricker will attempt to set it up as easily as possible to suit his battalion of birdie machines - though how possible that is on a course like the Straits remains to be seen. I expect that scoring will be especially tough in the morning sessions where the forecast is for cool temperatures and the ball will not travel as well. I suspect this is why Stricker has also opted to reverse the format from Paris and have his fourball matches in the afternoon - the format in which making birdies is slightly more valuable.
The Teams
Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele
Almost guaranteed to be a pairing for the Americans having lots of history and success playing with each other in the Presidents Cup and the Zurich Classic. They are very similar players with similar length which makes them an attractive Foursomes pairing in particular. Cantlay is fresh off the best season of his career with his his Fedex Cup win (Schauffele was 3rd), while Xander won the Olympic gold in Tokyo this summer. Both are terrific iron players.
Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas
Another more or less guaranteed pairing for the US of two longtime friends. They were basically the only players to show up and play well in France 3 years ago. This is also a logical partnership between two similar players who can be genius iron players and have great hands around the green but the ability to be a bit wayward on occasion with the driver. Neither will be flustered by any situation their partner leaves them in as they are used to it themselves and they are both natural shot-makers. This is another pairing that instinctually seems suited for foursomes, especially the holes where Thomas gets to hit the approach for Spieth to putt, but the fact that both were in the top 10 on tour in birdie or better percentage last year makes me think Fourball may actually be their best format.
Dustin Johnson
The World #2 hasn't won on the PGA Tour since his annihilation of the field at the November Masters last year. One would think that the course would suit his length very well. He hasn't always performed well in the team formats with a poor 4-8 record for a player of his caliber though he has gone 3-1 in the singles matches. His personality is laid back almost to the point of malaise - he offered this very DJ like take on Ryder Cup performance recently:
Quote:
But as far as why people play good and some don't, it's a golf tournament pretty much. So we're out there playing golf. It's whichever guys have their game that week are the ones that are going to play well and win their matches.
Collin Morikawa
Golf's newest prodigy already has two majors by 24 after winning The Open this summer at Royal St. George's. The best irons player on Tour by some distance, Morikawa is basically Tiger Woods with worse putting. He's shown the ability to play his best in situations that other players would fade in. I think it's highly likely that he and DJ will be a foursomes partnership as they already use the same TaylorMade ball which is a deviation from most of the American team who use Titleist. It sounds stupid but these players used to their own ball can struggle when using one they are a bit less familiar with, or so they say.
Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka
Probably the two golfers least likely to play together this weekend. Both are very talented but both have the ability to create a headache for Steve Stricker trying to match them up with a partner as neither have campaigned for universal popularity in their time on tour. Koepka has a decent Ryder Cup record while DeChambeau was a Captain's pick of Jim Furyk in Paris and he went 0-3 with huge losses while partnering Woods and Mickelson in foursomes. Playing Bryson twice in Foursomes and not in Fourballs was insanely bad captaincy and Stricker will surely unleash him in the format where he can play his own ball, his own style to a degree, and make a million birdies (he led the tour in BoB% this year) without worrying about the occasional double bogey. I think if Stricker gets this right Bryson will be a huge weapon. Koepka is nursing two recent surgically repaired knees and an event more recent wrist injury but if the course is even close to as hard as usual that will be up his alley - no one in the world plays hard courses as consistently well as he does.
In terms of partners I would be shocked if the captains picks hadn't all been asked about their potential viability with either player.
Tony Finau
The popular Finau finally won again on Tour recently to secure an automatic spot on the team. Another guy who hammers the ball off the tee and should be a big weapon on a course as long as WS. He played well in Paris and was underutilized by Furyk. He is the most likely player in my mind to partner either Koepka or DeChambeau given he matches their skill sets to some degree and has a laidback attitude. He partnered Koepka in both his pairs matches in 2018 and played once with Bryson in the 2019 President's Cup.
Scottie Scheffler
Another huge bomber with the driver that seemed a natural Captains pick despite the fact he has never won on Tour. He came 2nd in the WGC Matchplay this year which endeared him to Stricker. There are some doubts about him when under heavy pressure - "Sunday Scheffler" a term beginning to be well known in golf betting and DFS circles - and not as a compliment. His swing is extremely loose even in normal circumstances and this lack of structure has been theorized as being hurtful to him when the stakes ramp up.
Daniel Berger and Harris English
Two sorta milquetoast guys rounded out Stricker's captains picks. Berger has a bit of bulldog in him and could be a tough out in singles. Both are obviously very capable players although English especially is not great off the tee (91st on Tour in Strokes Gained) and it may not be the best setup for him.
Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy
These guys won't play together but I have grouped them together to highlight their importance. Europe doesn't have the team depth that the USA does and so the burden on their top players to perform is greater. Rahm and McIlroy are the only two truly world class players in captain Padraig Harrington's arsenal and so it seems almost guaranteed that both will play all 5 sessions and that they will need 3+ points each if Europe is going to win the trophy.
Rahm is the #1 player in the world and has been on a scintillating run of form over the last few months including his first Major Championship. There aren't too many indications of who his partners will be although compatriot Sergio Garcia has been thrown out there as a possibility.
I think it is more likely Sergio could play with McIlroy, especially in Foursomes as both use a TaylorMade ball. Rory was basically the only European to show up in Hazeltine in 2016 the last time the tournament was played in America. He will need to deliver a repeat performance and his form has turned a corner recently.
Viktor Hovland
Youngster Hovland is easily the next best player on Team Europe. I am particularly interested to see how much Harrington uses him. I think it would be crazy not to play him all 5 sessions (depending on performance) and hopefully the cliched "wisdom" of him being a Ryder Cup rookie doesn't detract from that. It will be mandatory for him to play fourballs at the very least - Europe is very short on prolific birdie makers of which Hovland is one of the best.
There has been talk of pairing him with Rahm which, to me, is a luxury that Europe cannot afford. I think that both Rahm and Hovland will be required to do the heavy lifting in partnerships of their own.
Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter
These two captain's picks are consummate Ryder Cup players with excellent records. Garcia is 22-12-7 over the years and Poulter is a dazzling 14-6-2 for a player of his relatively limited ability (to the others in the field).
Both will need to capture as much Ryder Cup magic as they are able to this week. Garcia's record at WS is MC-T54-MC and he has called it the hardest course he's ever played. Poulter has never broken 70 in 9 career rounds here and his lack of distance off the tee is a huge handicap to overcome. Sergio at least has the ball-striking ability to ostensibly compete around WS and he is in good form. For Poulter to continue his Ryder Cup success you would think a magical weekend with the putter will be necessary. He was 3rd on the PGA Tour last year in SG:Putting.
Tommy Fleetwood
A miserable two seasons have seen Fleetwood fall from 10th in the World to his current spot of 36th. However his last few performances have been okay and maybe a corner is turning. Along with Francesco Molinari he was terrific in France in 2019 but the Italian is not here this time. The 3rd TaylorMade golf ball user in the team along with Garcia and McIlroy, both of those guys are potential partners in my mind.
Fleetwood was a shocking T145th on the PGA tour in SG: Off The Tee this past season. A repeat of that kind of driving at WS will make for a miserable week.
Paul Casey
A happy-go-lucky guy who was almost certainly a great hang at ASU is also guy who I think will be sneakily important for Europe. He has lots of experience in America and is a good player on hard courses with his ball striking.
Tyrrell Hatton
A not so happy-go-lucky guy who is definitely the most entertaining player on Tour with his self-loathing antics. Got all the way up to #5 in the world earlier this summer but is not in good form at the moment. An excellent iron player and an excellent putter, he played with Casey in France and I don't see why that partnership couldn't be competitive here too.
Shane Lowry
The Irish bear was an obvious captain's pick for countryman Padraig Harrington. He plays in America and has been in good from (especially ball striking) for a couple months now.
Has a history of playing well in windy conditions including his Open win which could be a bonus around WS.
Matt Fitzpatrick
A grinder type of golfer who has turned into a good driver of the ball and has always been an excellent putter. His irons are the big weakness in his game. If he is paired in a match with Bryson I'm sure you will hear the broadcast make mention of his comments in which he labeled DeChambeau's style of golf "daft" and not requiring skill, although I believe the two have spoken and there is no animosity.
Lee Westwood & Bernd Wiesberger
Two guys that probably wouldn't have made the team if Harrington had been able to have it all his own way. Realistically both guys play much better on shorter courses and could be overmatched by WS and team USA. I doubt we will see them more than once before Sunday's singles matches.
Broadcast Schedule
The morning matches tee off Friday and Saturday at 8AM Eastern/1PM Britain.
Coverage is on NBC in the USA and BBC in the UK.
Odds
The USA are -188 to Win/Lift the Trophy.
Europe are +188 to Win, +150 to Lift the Trophy.
I've looked through the various markets and nothing has really caught my eye except Viktor Hovland to be the top European rookie at even money. His competition is Lowry and Wiesberger and he will play more and is better than both those guys.
Once the individual matches are available I think I will look to target the Americans in fourball, and maybe try to find some value on the Europeans in the foursomes.
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