Some stuff I jotted down on some post-it notes last night while watching a match. This is all still very much disjointed in my head and I post it here mostly just to keep the discussion going.

First a meaningless tangent: during the 05/06-09/10 La Liga seasons the average shots on target/match was 4.5 and the average goals/shot on target was 0.29. In those same Premier League seasons the average SoT/match was 6.2 and the average goals/SoT was 0.20. To me that suggests they are far more stringent about how they count shots in La Liga, not that the leagues are that different in terms of actual play.

Then the usual disclaimer about these just being some quick and dirty back of the envelope calcs and nothing too serious. Now the actual point.

It seems to me like we can divide a goalkeeper's actions into roughly two categories, 1. shot stopping and 2. preventing shots. The first is obvious enough. By the second I mean coming to claim crosses, coming off his line to deal with through balls and other loose balls, organising his defense etc, all things which help prevent the number of shots the opposition takes. If we accept this rough divide then we can ask what is the relative importance or value of shot stopping vs preventing shots?

Assume that there are an average of 5 SoT/match and the average goalkeeper saves 74% of them. This sets the goals conceded/match at 1.30 which is true of the last ten Premier League seasons so I thought it a decent average to use. If we decrease SoT/match by 1% while keeping save% the same we get 1.287 goals conceded/match for a gain of 0.013 goals/match. If instead we increase save percentage by 1% (increasing to 74.74%, not 75%) while keeping SoT/match the same we get 1.263 goals conceded/match for a gain of 0.037 goals/match. So in this example increasing save% by 1% is almost three times more valuable than decreasing SoT/match by 1%.

How much more valuable increasing save% is depends on the save%. The take home point is that at any save% above 50% increasing save% by 1% is more valuable than decreasing SoT/match by 1%. At realistic top flight save% levels (c. 60-80%) it ranges from 1.5x to 4x more valuable.

Of course real life is never as simple as that. But as George E. P. Box said "essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful." Maybe this is useful.

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Something semi-related that I just thought of.

What makes a good shot stopper? Is it the ability to make saves that other keepers cannot make, or is it being better at making the routine saves that everyone can make (e.g. making some save 99% vs 97% of the time). I'm reminded of the royal flush example from SSHE. Something to consider.

Great post.

Bobbo and I talked about this very issue the other day. It's going to be very hard to assign credit for these. By doing this, you very often reducing the number of shots your opponent can take (which is good), but at the same time could be more vulnerable by having come off your line and it's very hard to judge.

Something I thought of as well: given how old some keepers are for what in theory should be peak athletes (ages normally 22-28), yet many of the best are over the age of 30. You would have to think the second factor of "goalkeeper awareness" improves with age and that the decision making of when to come off the line, where to position himself, and when to punch out plays a big role in the value of a keeper, maybe moreso than the ability to make the occasional super-athletic save. Of course, the best goalies are great at both aspects.

A question about how saves are recorded:

Often-times if you follow the ESPN gamecast, it will say "Save round-post." I'm assuming this is a shot that was going wide but the goalie "saved" anyway. Can a keeper receive credit for a save on a shot that was not on target?

I think when they show the stats about shots on target they do count those that are saved by the keeper which may be going wide. Im not 100% on that. I just think they give the keeper the credit for the save.

I have no idea about the "Save round-post" bit. Id have thought it meant the keeper tipped the ball around the post or over the bar so it resulted in a corner?

I like that they count those shots as "shots on target" though - I'd much rather have an active keeper who prevents anything close even if it looks to be off target, rather than a passive keeper who is fine w/ just letting it go.

Save round post means he saved it deflecting it past the post wide for a corner.

Shot on target is anything that is judged to have been going in. If it was going wide it does not count as a shot on target but the keeper does get credit for a save if he saves it. I think this is the most useful. A shot that hits the post is obviously not on target for example but for some reason some people think it is. Whether it was on target or not is a judgement call, usually its not difficult but when its close and the keeper makes a save I am sure they give it as a shot on target.

So Bjørn, now that you have made your triumphant return to the forums I have to ask how goes the list? You mentioned on your blog you were working on an update for the end of the season. I know I can't be the only one eagerly awaiting an updated list.

+1

i'll get him started...

1. Messi

2. Messi on a bad day

LOL Americans. Football has absolutely NOTHING to do with stats yet you keep refering to them and ****. football is pure sport

Decided to wait until the season was truly finished but has been putting players in order all day so it's definitely coming (some time).

Realistically I probably won't ever get myself to do a running list, as was the original ambition, but I do quite like the idea of a mid season ranking around January and then an end/beginning final ranking once it's all done.

+1

Bump,YES the list is actually finished (meaning the last one looks horrible) and I refuse to do any more tinkering with it.

From now on, it will be a twice a year list. This update is officially the end of season 2010/11 start of season 2011/12 version, and then some time in December or January there will be a 2011/12 midseason update.

Now, what I really want to do is add some text to the various players, after all that was the original point of this whole thing, and in what will no doubt partly be a gigantic effort in getting that started and partly some fun (attention whoring if you're a cynical bastard) in this thread (since it has refused to definitively die somehow) I'll be doing another live blog run down of the list with comments starting later tonight.

It will be different from last time though. I will, believe it or not, start right at number 300 and then.... just go from there.

There will be no rules and probably/hopefully have a very chaotic improvised feel to it.

Occasionally I could post 10 maybe even more at the same time and who knows, if I get tired I might just **** it and go ahead and post the whole list.

But that's definitely not the plan and hopefully I'll end up with plenty of thoughts and notes on a lot of players (including from other people so do feel free to share) that I can use in adding some actual writeups on the blog.

Not sure exactly when I'll start since I have some things to do first, but once I start, I'll go all night and maybe early morning too.


Cliffs:

- List is finished (and will be twice a year)

- Live blogging marathon rundown possibly over several days to come, starting tonight

Thanks for the interest!

Well now I'm excited.

This Belarus/Iceland match is so boring I'm going to make some predictions for the new list.

Biggest upward mover in the top 20: Definitely Rooney
Biggest downward mover in the top 20: Forlan

Biggest upward mover in the top 50: Sahin
Biggest downward mover in the top 50: Could be Forlan, maybe Malouda. Diego is another one.

Biggest upward mover in the top 100: Rossi
Biggest downward mover in the top 100: Olic. I'm not counting Scholes due to retirement. Fabiano might drop a lot.

Biggest upward mover in the top 200: Falcao, Hernandez
Biggest downward mover in the top 200: Maybe Ballack, Diaby or Bojan

Biggest upward mover in the top 300: Götze will jump into the top 125. Schürrle will jump into the top 175.
Biggest downward mover in the top 300: Borriello will fall off the list.

defenders move up?

I would like to see a trend where defenders get pushed up a little more. I think Kit's predictions of movers and shakers is quite accurate. Also Drogba and Torres amongst biggest downward movers. Actually a lot of Chelsea players tbh.

Defenders are definitely under rated imo

Roby Langers

Some good predictions.

Some of the swings shock even me, but just goes to show the little difference there is between many of the lower ranked players.

On the top half, glimpsing at it, I think it's often a case of someone barely hanging on for a while, maybe me remembering a lot of quality/predicting it will come again, but then if it doesn't off the cliff they fall.

As far as defenders go, not sure if there is an upwards trend, a few more new faces, but more than anything not sitting quite right with me are some of the gaps between the centrebacks.

Anyway, I will enjoy some sushi and then it's time to start.

Doing another prediction game?

hmm not sure there is time but if there is great interest we could do a top 20? 30? (or whatever people want) prediction via pm with the deadline being me reaching say top 150 or something in my rundown.

Now that we have the previous list as a reference I don't think it would be as much fun as last time.

OK here we go.

Thoughts, comments, criticism, berating, LOLZ and everything is definitely welcome though I can't promise immediate debate. Will instead try (and inevitable fail) to do as many as possible.

First players coming right up:

300:

Kevin Doyle - Ireland - Wolverhampton

Forward NEW ENTRY



For some time now I've become quite a fan of this dynamic and reasonably skilled forward.

He doesn't score goals but make everyone around him better by somehow doing the job of at least two forwards (somehow minus the goals) being both the dynamic one and target-man one offering very good link up play.

299:

Juan Manuel Iturbe - Argentina - FC Porto

Forward - NEW ENTRY

First shock entry I think.

Mistakenly in the past I've put a few quirky entries in the bottom of the list, leaving out more deserving ones, and there is a chance Iturbe for the time being at least is another example of this.

He will definitely be the player I've seen the least on the list but if his breathtaking looking attacking talent comes even somewhat through in his new stop Portugal, he could easily rise up the list.

And hey if not, he'll just have to bide his time some more.