Chefs won the draft according to some cat at yahoo sports lol

Minimum 8-peat

On the pod I listened to, they said that with the exception of their 1st Rd WR, the Jags drafted by far the lowest positioned players vs the consensus draft board - which I think is built off a variety of well regarded scouting services.

Their ave player was 40 ish positions below the consensus spot. And I believe he has been at or very near the bottom for each year at the Jags. Which isn’t surprising when you see how average the Jags roster is.

Now I’m all for ignoring media mocks which are in general just following the crowd and written for clicks, but that consensus board sounds like it might mean something

Eagles and Steelers had the best drafts

I feel like this was decided after the first 2 picks. I like DeJean, but wouldn't have been upset if they kept the picks and taken a combo of say Adonai Mitchell and Mike Sainristil.

No idea what to think about the Hunt pick. Ainias Smith and Trotter seemed liked good value and nostalgia (Trotter).

Getting future picks was nice, though. A lot of fans thought they'd go OL early, but I think Howie addressed that recently with Dickerson, Jurgens, and Steen.

crazy the team lost six of their last seven games

I heard Miami had the best draft.

Post draft, Eagles and Cowboys are co-favorites for the NFC East on DK at +130.

Pre draft it was Cowboys +125 and Eagles+135.

i wouldn't pay too much attention to futures lines at a recreational book which is insulated from taking big action from known winners by limiting them

their NBA and NHL series were wildly off on some teams simply to account for geographical bias

circa has dallas +107/-137 & eagles +130/-160


implied fairs are dallas +121 and phi +144

not saying that's necessarily where the truth is as futures are notoriously inefficient markets, but on circa will take 5k wagers on those right now from winning players and allow them to rebet it after even if they don't adjust the line, dk will take <$10 from an established long term winner - dk also doesn't originate, they just see what circa/bm/pinny do and use that as a guideline

why is it like this? because you can bet NFL in Pennsylvania on dk but not in texas so they're going to get way more action on philly and can offer an artificially bad line, meanwhile they don't need to worry about sharp action hitting them for more than a few bucks so can dangle a slightly bad line on Dallas to better justify the horrible line on Philly

also not really worth playing dallas at +130 given it's minor ev to begin with and you'll make more just putting that money in the market for the same exact time

I think Sainristil is pretty good, but he projects primarily as a slot. DeJean was both projected as a first-round talent and has more versatility to play outside or safety. So I still like the move for them.

And they added, what, a future 3rd, 4th, and 5th? Very nice work.

A lot of this is from trading down in the 3rd and drafting an older player from a small school without a set position. Also, don't forget that they moved out of the 3rd for Kenny Pickett.

It's still a good draft and I'm not complaining. They've had a great off-season.

fwiw an NFL pundit observed that Howie was keen to add 2025 draft capital bc the organization realizes they are likely to lose a pick or two after the Saquon tampering investigation is completed

It seems like the best play would have been to trade away all of your 2025 picks except like a 5th rounder so when they go to take away draft capital they only have one option.

Or maybe not to tamper so you can pay overs for a veteran RB

Howie is extremely good at his job

Him and Lynch are the only 2 GMs I will blindly trust no matter what they do

Including not telling your FA signings to STFU about it before the legal tampering period starts?

LOL (at them)

Still, whether or not that's true, good to add all those picks next year. (I don't know if this is true, but I heard chatter that teams didn't think this draft was that deep and ran out of draftable players before the end of the draft, which may have been part of the motivation for picking up so many future picks. Or just not having spots on the roster this year for everyone they could have drafted if they used all their picks.)

Oh, Roger will find a way. He'll just reach even further down the line if he has to.

You'd better hope the rumors that Adam Peters was mostly responsible for their late-round draft finds aren't true then. Because Lynch's day 1 and 2 draft record, woof.

picks 27,31,32 all were absolute head scratchers to me. End that isn't athletic so he's likely a bust, WR for the 49ers (got a strange chart so I can't comp him but at least he's athletic but I don't know man replace one of your other WR's in a year not what I would've done), and legette (noted previously). Also NFL has to make a rule to ban Buffalo trading with KC.

Bears taking a punter over TJ Tampa disappointed me. I get it, the Iowa punter had more in game practice at it than any punter ever and the bears punter was awful last year but damnit. I had TJ off the board early 3rd at worst. You have 5 selections and we took a punter in round 4 ffs. I guess it was because that was the last pick they had until they traded a next year 4th for a 5th rounder because for some reason last year they traded late round picks for backup players who won't resign on a team that won't make the playoffs.

Steve Young wasn't a SF starter until age 30. btw there was a nfl.com article a week before the draft talked about the QB's and listed all the QB needy teams for them but one more was in there--the falcons visiting a few but only working out privately with penix. Really wish I hadn't just glossed over that.

well I'm sure everyone talked about pick 8 lols enough, ryan pace getting the blame cause the bears kept doing that sign a FA QB then draft one the same year, it was wild too they would tell one guy he's starting bench him for the rook a few weeks later, then someone else was starting after that none of them knew wtf was going on. Penix will be like 26 when he's able to start at least. Same age as Sam Darnold is now.

This year's draft was all offense, next year's draft is all defense I hear.

I would've taken Bowers as the Raiders too, people were mad since TE wasn't a real need for them but next QB didn't go until the 5th round, what the heck else were they supposed to do other than take whoever's top off their board. (I wouldn't have traded down with him on the board outside of a big haul offer, f off nerds)

Have to discount the value of future picks if you're panthers GM tho, since owner has a quick trigger firing finger. Even when it's all his fault.

This draft had a lot of pretty good talented players at selections that in other drafts they wouldn't be there so trading down made a lot less sense than normal. This is where I dislike the nerds automatically saying OMG YOU GOT VALUE for a trade down. A lot just depends on how good that player is thought to be vs what that spot typically gets. Payton taking credit is just dumb, Vikings didn't trade up a spot because of the broncos (it was out there they had nix over mccarthy/penix, I just thought they'd trade down and still get him but I guess they were also afraid the raiders might) they did it because of the raiders. Don't think anyone knew what the Raiders preference was?

anyway Vikings had an interesting draft, their guy for QB, Obviously they had turner in the top 10 on their board to make that move and he was often mocked going off the board at 8, which is a lot more reasonable for moving up to 17 than YOLO'ing someone like some teams used to do. If you told fans before the draft they'd have the QB mocked to them AND the guy mocked at 8. I mean they'd be thrilled.

Some colleges basically don't have a playbook these days so JJ probably being able to start right away is a bonus too.

Bo Nix improved a lot to this year, was undraftable at Auburn before but Josh Allen had some brutal college film so who knows in the right place/system/etc/patience/work ethic/etcetcetc.

Penix is a love/hate guy really. He won at Indiana in the covid year only lost one game in the east (and they should've beaten Ohio State too Penix had 491 passing yards in that game and Indiana didn't run the ball at all and I couldn't tell you who Indiana's WR's were without looking it up), literally nobody wins there. Kept getting hurt or he would've been around this convo earlier. Throws too many ropes tho and isn't mobile due to right leg being near dead. Then he took Washington and beat Oregon twice and made the nat game. It's also the falcons they'll screw this up but he's better than he got credit for by the twitter nerds.

Looking it up, Ty Fryfogle had over 200 yards in that game, apparently was in two nfl training camps.

Yeah, Darius Robinson and Xavier Legette weren't really much good in college until their fifth year. Cardinals do run a 3-4 so Robinson at least has the body for a 5-tech, but he's still not that athletic and I don't see him being worth a first-rounder. Legette had 423 yards receiving, total, his first four years of college. And not behind a murder's row of talent: Bryan Edwards? Shi Smith? Jaheim Bell, the tight end just picked in the seventh round, had 497 yards in 2021 for South Carolina.

I'm just not high on guys who take that long to break out. He turned 23 in January. Being that much older and further along in your physical growth than the players you were up against generally isn't a winning formula in the NFL.

Not sure what to think of Pearsall. The college production worries me, but I think he might have a role in the NFL at least. Probably a more useful IRL player than fantasy player, if he does turn out to be useful. Seems like a spot where SF wanted some very specific traits in the guy they drafted, and I think it's Pearsall's athleticism / run after catch ability / production on running the ball on sweeps and the like that they were looking for.

There are a few potential skill-player studs, most notably Luther Burden and Ollie Gordon. I think some good OL as well-- I hear people are very high on the two LSU tackles. And there's a chance some QBs go in the first (Ewers, Milroe, Sanders, Beck) although it isn't regarded as good a draft for them as this year was-- and probably for all of them, this year is key; there's no Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence type first-round lock. Probably all in all you're right.

Trade down probably would have been OK there especially since they drafted Michael Mayer last year, but I do think he was BPA so he's a fine pick. Jackson Powers-Johnson should be good value too if the medicals on his concussions are OK.

I think the buzz was the Raiders liked Penix, and Atlanta taking him threw everybody a curveball.

I'm not against Atlanta drafting a QB at 8. You can see why they did it. If they excel with Cousins for the next couple of years they are taking a backup or a mega deal for someone else's successful QB right at a time their star 1st rounders from the past few years rookie contracts end. They also didn't want to be in a situation where you have 2 backups competing for the #1 spot again. If Cousins Achilles blows out they'd be back in the last season's situation again. Cousins contract is front loaded also so if Penix is ready and Kirk's arm goes like Matt Ryan's at the same age, they have a replacement who will still be on a rookie deal. Even healthy I think Cousins term at the Falcons is a 2yr deal masqueraded as a 4 (similar to Von Miller's 6 year deal at the Bills really only likely to be 3 or 4 max). With all the offensive draft talent they've spent the 3 years prior (2023 8th RB, 2022 8th WR, 2021 4th TE) they are trying to protect against those draft picks being wasted like the past 2 seasons.

That and hosting impromptu orgies in bathrooms.