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Originally Posted by Lawnmower Man
Judge is drawing dead to be the best player in baseball, and the thought experiment for this is simple: let Judge pitch 130+ innings for three consecutive seasons while Ohtani plays OF. Most valuable player is a thing Judge might be, but that's different and I wouldn't base it entirely on f/bWAR which are flawed methodologies with substantial margins of error.
Judge's chances of being the best player over a sustained period in the next few years aren't high, but that's not necessarily due to just Ohtani - it's more that Judge is 32 and there are lots of exciting young stars that are likely to be overtake this generation.
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Originally Posted by madlex
"drawing dead" is a pretty strong statement considering that Judge is one career ending injury away from passing Ohtani in a very decisive manner.
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlex
You were the only one using the word "dead". Mike Trout was the best player in baseball for a decent amount of time. Until he wasn't because he started to get injured all the time and he's only 32. The Ohtani as a pitcher argument might be gone once he tears his UCL again. Based on his two prior TJ surgeries and pitchers dropping like flies it's not that unlikely that his pitching career might be over in the next couple of years.
I would take Ohtani over Judge over almost any length of time if it came out that Ohtani won't pitch ever again. Ohtani's been the better hitter since the beginning of 2023, he's more than 2 years younger, looks quite a bit more athletic at the moment and has clearly been the more durable athlete with a less worrying injury history outside of the elbow, despite an insane workload over the past 3 years.
I was quite optimistic on Judge going into 2022 despite his age (back when some people here though it was a mistake for him to turn down the extension) because he's a late-bloomer with great tools and was highly athletic (especially compared to some large slugger archetypes that were being trotted out as comps). All of this is even more true for Ohtani purely as a position player. He's reportedly never taken hitting that seriously, with the bulk of training and mental energy devoted to pitching, he remains extremely athletic even as he nears 30 and he appears to be getting better. It's unclear how much pitching has been holding him back, but it seems likely that it's at least slowed down his development. This all bodes well for Ohtani.
It's also Aaron Judge that reminds me of Mike Trout circa 2022, not Ohtani. Lots of people had Mike Trout as the best player going into 2022 based on the past, rather than looking into the future.