Kimbrel sold the ranch again in the 9th, but the birds won a crazy one in extras, apparently

It's based on individual batted balls - it's essentially a combination of exit velo, launch angle and batter speed for each batted ball. For example certain combinations of launch angle and exit velo (and not just high exit velo) might essentially guarantee that you get a single almost all the time, in which case your xBA for that batted ball might be something like .960.

So yes, while BABIP of .391 is high, what that stat is saying is that based on Ohtani's contact quality, it should be even higher and he's been unlucky in terms where they ended up. For more info:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcas...atting-average

This isn't perfect because certain hitters might persistently underperform (for example, until the shift was banned, lefty pull hitters tended to underperform xwOBA), but for a small sample size, it's far superior to traditional stats if you want to understand how the batter actually performed.

I'm sure that once there's enough data, we could improve it by just adding directional noise (as in for each batted ball, but take the average of batted balls that are within, say, 10 degrees) rather than ignoring direction entirely since batters have control over the general direction, just not precise direction. Pull tendency does matter a bit for flyball hitters with good but not great raw power since a lot of pulled HRs would become routine flyballs when hit to center. In general, you want to be a pull hitter for flyballs, but a spray hitter for groundballs.

With that said, no one is doing anything more sophisticated than Statcast as far as I know, so if someone else has drastically lower #s (well before today's game), it's either outdated, doesn't use granular data, assumes regression or maybe just wrong.

Now I think of it, adding noise to launch angle might also make expected stats more predictive as well. Batters don't control precise launch angle either but expected stats can be very sensitive to it. In fact in the future, we might even be able to simulate noise more holistically using a physical simulation (add a tiny bit of noise to contact point and timing rather than outcome).

If only Ohtani were allowed to bet on himself, he’d surely bat .400.

Apparently it's unlikely he can even count to .400.

As we get another generation in the Statcast era, I think we're gonna learn which hitters and pitchers create their own BABIP. Not that there will be a general rule, but we'll identify some outliers.

Like, great fly-ball pitchers (Verlander) are gonna be lower BABIP guys directly related to how they pitch. Extremely hard-hitters with high barrel rates like Ohtani/Judge will have higher BABIPs directly related to how they hit.

The general rule of BABIP and HR/FB% being stats to indicate luck or regression is gonna have a lot of exceptions as we learn more about batted balls, I'm saying.

I feel his pain. I broke my left wrist in 3 places when i fell clearing brush about 6 years ago. Essentially ruined my golf career. Luckily I can still drink beer with right hand with no discomfort.

that injury looks horrific ugh

but on to more important concerns...r u the Undertaker from WWE?

Yes. But don't tell anyone.

my bad...I guess it was the goatie and being middle-aged from TX. this is who I pictured you were:

omg...u r the Undertaker!



er...um...Go Rangers!!!

KC, baby!

I shiit you not, I've been told I look like the undertaker a few times. lmao

uncanny for my stoned head

I've been told I look like McLovin, but that's probably because I'm actually Christopher Mintz-Plasse.

Tigers going with their men's O40 softball uniforms today. I'll try to get a screen grab, they look worse on the field.

those would be the City Connect jerseys.

translation: shameless method to generate additional jersey sales

Mets city connect jerseys look great.

have u bought one?

Mets are just trying to look like Yankees normal jerseys. Astros are okay dark pants are always bad with baseball jerseys.





Wsox and Angels look ok from what is shown.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...nnect-uniforms

Royals Goat

2-run blast to take the lead in the 9th, and avoid being shutout for the 2nd time this season. 5-0 loss to the O's, the royals only bagel

I have 7.

One for each day of the week.

lol angels bullpen