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Originally Posted by sixfour
Yeah, I was just looking at general needs, certainly some people have him with a first round grade but definitely agree that they may well just trade down in this spot. Thought about Gibbs but I'm not sure he's quite a first round pick, would think Cincy would take someone like a Charbonnet on day two, dependent on what they're actually thinking of doing with Mixon
it's an honest assessment on your part
re Mixon he will be asked to take a significant pay cut. if he says no, he will be cut
re Gibbs, one of the two Athletic CIN beat reporters (Dehner, Jr. -- who is really good at his job) said that of all 32 NFL teams, CIN very well might be the best fit for Gibbs. opposing Ds are two high shelling the **** out of JOE and a dump off or two to Gibbs early in a game (Gibbs had one drop in 52 targets last season) will quickly bring Ds out of two high schemes
lastly, i'm not a fan of Charbonnet after reading this paywalled espn+ article
2023 NFL draft running back projections: Rankings, comparisons
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Here is how our Football Outsiders projections work. BackCAST projects NFL success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, has a high average yards per carry and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level. BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL.
For example, a running back with a plus-50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the "average" drafted running back. BackCAST also projects whether each running back is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more of a "ground-and-pound" back.
What follows is a ranking of the top five BackCAST projections for running back prospects available in the 2023 draft, along with a pick for an overrated player in this class.
top 5
Bijan Robinson - BackCAST score: +121.8%
DeWayne McBride (UAB): +60.0%
Gibbs: +59.5%
Sean Tucker (Syracuse): +57.0%
Achane: +53.4%
most overrated back
Charbonnet: +15.1%
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/dra...back-prospects