Quote:
Originally Posted by Melkerson
I actually think this is probably close to as reliable than 4th down bot. If your opponent really doesn't want you to do one of two things, then generally doing that thing is best.
Excellent point. You will see this effect often when each coach is deciding to call TO near end of 1H. Obviously one side benefits more than the other, as it is a zero sum game (win prob always sums to 1.0).
If Kyle knew that Lions kicker was sub par from 46 yards, I believe he would hope they go for FG, miss it, get 8 extra yards in the process, and benefit from a big momentum boost for the home fans and team.
That seems to be the easiest path to get the game turned around IMO.
Of course stopping them on 4th and 2 also changes momentum, without the additional 8 yards and also with the risk that Lions succeed and run an additional 3-4 minutes off the clock, keep 9ers D on the field, kick a 90%+ FG or get a TD that would likely put them in < 10% win equity position.
If FG chance is < 50% it seems going for it is sound. If it is 75%+, I suspect kicking it might be better. I want to take a few minutes tomorrow and get the break even #s and get a more substantive answer.
Last edited by PokerHero77; 01-31-2024 at 12:58 AM.