Quote:
Originally Posted by smartDFS
are we talking about the last possession of 1st half? as discussed, you don't benefit as much from reverse field position advantage and potential PIs on 4th & 3 which makes that a clear FG in my mind. would be surprised if analytics saw it massively differently.
Agreed. 9ers get next possession at 25 regardless. 4th and 3 for TD has about 30-35% chance, and that is a league average comprised of average defenses and many running QBs (which Goff is not). FG is as close to 100% as any kicker will ever get.
Using exp. pts alone it's 0.35 x 6.94 = 2.43 vs. 0.98 x 3 = 2.94.
B/E for TD is 42.3%. 4th and 2 maybe, 4th and 1 yes.
With less time remaining it becomes an even clearer choice to kick FG.