The Ringer's NFL Draft Guide by Danny Kelly is up!

Regulars of this forum know that when I start this thread, I only give out winners. 2 years ago I gave you Justin Jefferson, that turned out pretty well. Last year, I was quite enamored with Kyle Pitts, before the hype helium went into overdrive, and imagine my surprise when my Falcons took him. He went and had one of the best rookie TE seasons ever, and looks to be an ascending pass-catching weapon for the new NFL on par with Kelce or Kittle. Now the Falcons just need to fix the rest of the team, and we might have something.

It's gonna be a weird year. All the QB's are projects at best, and as many teams as ever need to do something at the QB position. The rough go of it that rookie signal callers had last year would highlight how much of an inexact science this is, and last year there WAS an allegedly generational talent at QB. This draft does seem to have depth at edge rusher, which could be good for my terrible Falcons.

The Jaguars are on the clock at 1, and at this early date the pundits are saying Evan Neal (OT Alabama), Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE Michigan) or Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE Oregon). The Jags have needs basically everywhere, so I think the smart play is Neal. He can play on the left or right side, he's excellent in pass blocking and run blocking, and will have 95th percentile plus measurables. They'll be able to get a B+ edge rusher in the 2nd round just from attrition, so I think they should give Trevor the best chance at success and bolster his protection.

I actually like David Ojabo (the other edge at Michigan) more than Hutchinson. I don't watch a lot of second rate B1G football, but he was more of a gamewrecker in the games I did watch. He may be raw, as he didn't play football until his junior year of high school, but his athleticism stands out. All great players are great athletes, even though not all great athletes are great players.

Anyway, my bold prediction for this year is anyone who drafts a Georgia defender will be happy with their pick. The casual college football fan only remembers UGA's defense getting shredded by Alabama first in the SEC Championship Game. That would be overlooking what happened in the regular season, as UGA's defense was historically dominant by YPP against the best league in the country. The whole was more than the sum of its parts, and I predict the sum of the parts will go on to dominate in the NFL like LSU's offensive alumni have (Burrow, Jefferson, Chase, and CEH on the SAME college team).

As an institution, there's no question UGA is a linebacker factory. Leonard Floyd and Alec Ogletree have enjoyed long careers as above average linebackers in the NFL. I actually thought Jarvis Jones would be the best of all of them, which he wasn't at the next level. But Roquan Smith is a good player, and Azeez Ojulari had an excellent rookie season last year, even though nobody noticed because it was for the Giants. My favorite UGA defender in the draft is LB Nakobe Dean.

Like most of the UGA defenders in this draft, he was a 5 star prospect out of high school. He's fast, a sure tackler, devastating blitzer, and excellent in coverage. I think he fits best as a Will linebacker where he can do his thing in space. He reminds me of Derrick Brooks. Criticisms are that he's a bit undersized, and that he played behind an elite D-line which made his pass rushing look better. Wherever he goes, I think he'll be incredible at the next level.

I have a soft spot for DT Jordan Davis. He jumps out when you watch UGA's defense play, because he's always the biggest guy on the field. He's elite against the run as a 2-gap DT that commands double teams. His success at the next level will be determined by his ability to collapse the pocket and rush passers, which is a skill he didn't really display in college. As a two down run stuffing lineman, he could absolutely help a team like the Chargers or the Bills.

I think DT/DE Travon Walker will have a better NFL career than Davis. Walker is a Belichick prototype hybrid player who could line up inside or outside. He's great against the run, and has better pass rush skills than Davis. It'll be interesting to see where he goes, and how he's used at the next level. He's from a small town in south Georgia, so I'd obviously be ecstatic if the Falcons got him at 8.

The last UGA player I'll mention is WR George Pickens. He was also all everything coming out of high school, and had a great year as a true freshman. There are some questions about his maturity, as he got himself ejected from the Georgia Tech game, and missed the first half of the SECCG that year. He then promptly tore his ACL in spring practice the following year, and just barely came back in time for UGA's title run. I thought it'd be better for him to build his draft stock and stay another year, but that might have been me being selfish. Anyway, he's wiry, with great speed and good hands. If he slips to day 2, someone will be very happy with him if he's fully recovered from that ACL injury.

Speaking of WR's, the WR I like most in this class is Chris Olave (Ohio St). I know, I know, B1G football is like watching midget wrestling compared to the SEC. But this dude was wildly productive and put up crazy numbers over 4 years at tOSU. Olave isn't a huge size mismatch like Drake London (WR USCw), but he's an excellent route runner with the speed to be a deep threat. Also very dependable in the red zone.

There's lots of interesting WR prospects. I don't have much of an opinion on Jameson Williams (WR Alabama), but they're something of an NFL factory too so I think he'll be just fine. The kid from Arkansas, Treylon Burks, has drawn comparisons to DK Metcalf as he's got size and great straight-line speed, but not great lateral agility.

I have more thoughts, but this is getting long so I'll break it up into multiple posts.

Soooooo, quarterbacks. They're kind of important for success in the NFL, and there's not a consensus number 1. I wouldn't put a first round grade on any of them this year, but they'll inevitably go because so many teams need to do something there.

I think the most intriguing QB prospect is Malik Willis out of Liberty. He's drawn comparisons to Josh Allen, in that he has a big arm and he's mobile. What makes Allen special, though, is that he dramatically improved his accuracy from his rookie year to what he is now, and that's not an easily repeatable step for young QB's.

I thought Ole Miss QB Matt Corral has showed some flashes in the SEC... but he's far from perfect or a finished prospect. The big question for him will be can he graduate from an RPO-heavy offense into more of a pocket passer.

As businessdude noted, everyone seems to be insisting on mocking QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh) to the Steelers. He's experienced, which I like, and seemed to put it all together in his last year at Pitt en route to winning the ACC last year. He was a little bit of a late bloomer, and not much of a prospect, and will be 24 as a rookie. But so was Joe Burrow, so it could work.

Desmond Ridder (QB Cincy) is someone everyone wants to root for, as the small school hero that crashed the Power 5 party. All the usual caveats apply about the competition that he played against, though. Even more than the others here, I think he'd benefit from sitting for most or all of his first season.

The Lions pick at 2 and again at 32. I think it's highly likely they'll take a blue chip lineman or WR at 2, and snag the project QB that falls that they like at 32. Since that 32nd pick falls in the first round, they get the controllable 5th year option, which could be worth a lot from a teambuilding perspective.

The Carolina Panthers pick at 6 overall, and then not again until round 4, pick 106. That seems too high for this class of QB's... but if the alternative if Sam Darnold, maybe they should hold their nose and do it anyway. They could surely use the help on the offensive line, which may make the most sense.

Some interesting quirks in the first round of this year. The Jets pick at 4 and 10, the Giants pick at 5 and 7, and the Eagles pick 15, 16, AND 19!

For the Jets, I'm not the first to suggest that CB Derek Stingley (LSU) makes a lot of sense for one of their picks. Stingley was the number 1 corner coming out of high school, and immediately became the best CB that LSU had. He started as a true freshman and had a tremendous first season ending with a 'ship. He's a prodigious talent, and so young at only 20 years old. I've got him as the number 1 CB on my board.

The number 2 CB I have on my board is Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner (CB Cincy). Other than Desmond Ridder, I think Gardner was the biggest part of Cincinnati's success in their magical season last year. In the new NFL, CB's are an impact position, and are absolutely worth top 10 picks when they hit. Sauce has the size to play press man, so he wouldn't make sense on a zone heavy team like the Seahawks or Cowboys. Pass coverage was such an abortion for the Jets last year, it seems likely they'll go with one of these guys early. I think the Jets had a sneaky good draft last year... if Saleh can fix the defense and Wilson takes a step forward, they could arrive ahead of schedule. A shiny new weapon for Wilson would make a lot of sense with the other pick.

No idea what the Giants do at 5 and 7. Mercifully, Dave Gettleman is no longer making decisions for the G-men, but they could use help from a blue chip hog molly. I guess I have to take the L on Andrew Thomas, which was the tackle that went the highest 2 years ago. Tristan Wirfs just went to his 2nd Pro Bowl and has a rang, so he was clearly the best of that group. Even Mekhi Becton has looked better on the field than Thomas. A new administration might seek to correct that mistake and take a tackle there, and I wouldn't really blame them.

But wow, how interesting a spot do the Eagles have! THREE mid-round firsts! They can go in a ton of different directions here, so I'm just gonna keep it simple. With all this flexibility, they should go best player available x3, and give Jalen Hurts the best possible chance to succeed... and evaluate the QB position if they want to think about a move next offseason. They should probably draft a WR... because Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, and Jalen Reagor is quite a horror show of high WR picks. Maybe they can get it right this year.

My Falcons pick at 8. Other than Grady Jarrett and AJ Terrell, everyone else on the defense is completely replaceable to me. For the eleventy billionth year in a row, we need a pass rush, so I'd say edge is the biggest need. We drafted Marlon Davidson two years ago and the coaching staff is insisting that they can make him work, but he was drafted by the previous administration. Deion Jones promptly disappeared after getting his big money deal. He's *okay* in coverage, but he needs a tackling machine next to him like the from-out-of-nowhere Foye Oluokon to have a functional front 7, and do the basic job of linebacking for completely standard, in the box runs. And Oluokon is a free agent.

And, like some loser Gen-Z restaurant server, Calvin Ridley called out of his season and maybe his career 90 minutes before kickoff for my fantasy team, so thanks for that. That means Russell Gage and Tajae Sharpe are atop the WR depth chart, so that needs to be addressed. Jake Matthews is ever dependable and steady and underrated at LT, but the rest of the line didn't have a good year... and Matt didn't exactly help them. I'd love to use a day 3 pick on some unheard of fungible RB to pair with the suddenly resurgent Cordarelle Patterson. Still, I think pass rush and defense is the highest priority for this first round pick. As mentioned above, right now I'd like it to be Travon Walker.

The combine starts next week! So all this can and will change.

What do y'all think?

TJ - i appreciate you putting in the effort for this OP. i haven't read it all but will this weekend. also, thx for the Ringer link. looks like a cool read. i love mock drafts and draft boards.

with my Bengals ascending to the second best team in American football, i'm very engaged on how they'll approach their glaring weakness -- a bottom four offensive line.

I don't like Stingley for the Jets at all, either at 4 or 10. Hoping to avoid.

I imagine they'll take a two-pronged approach through the draft and free agency. It's nice that their fix is simple, they just have to throw everything at the O-line. There's maybe 3 or 4 great tackle prospects, but it seems unlikely they'll be there at 31.

Terron Armstead is a free agent. He had some nagging injuries last year but he's one of the best when he's right.

regarding the oline, i think you try to 'run it back' with Riley Reiff at RT close to what he made last season ($7.5mn). Jonah Williams was serviceable at LT, but perhaps an upgrade can be made there. we'll see. a lot of the problems with the oline came from the porous interior. i think free agency could be used to find two new guards and one center. that said, if BC guard Zion Johnson is there at #31, then that's the pick.

there's talk about CB being a need to fill, but i don't see it. Chidobe and Hilton played at an elite level all year. Apple came under fire at times this season, but he also made some key plays throughout the year (the tackle of Hill on the last play of the 1st half of the AFCCG comes to mind). i'm not calling Apple great, but great CBs don't grow on trees and he is at least average. even the game winning TD pass to Kupp in the SB wasn't awful D. he made Stafflah throw the perfect pass and was still on Kupp quickly looking for the hand rip. that said, another decent CB will need to be added in FA for depth.

dline will be the other 'need' area for me (other than oline). IDL Ogunjobi was pure value on his $6.2mn one-year 'prove it' deal, but his price will now skyrocket as he is an UFA. IDL B.J. Hill is also an UFA. IDL D.J. Reader is signed for $13.7mn. so CIN needs bodies on the interior. likely unlikely, but perhaps 'Bamas IDL Phidarian Mathis falls to CIN at the end of round 2?

yep, interior of the line is where Bengals are weakest. I can imagine two new guards and a new center

Laken Tomlinson is a FA and also Jensen from TB. If they don't get re-upped, I could see a move for both of them.

I think they'll play it safe and take either Thibodeaux or Hutchinson at 2. If they can trade down a couple slots I could see they taking Kyle Hamilton, which has been the buzz the last couple days ... I just don't see them taking another DB at #2 after the epic fail of Jeff Okudah. They also have (by Lions standards) a pretty decent OL put together. Some team would need to make it worth it for them to move down though.

The first round is loaded with elite WRs, so one would likely be there at 32. I could see a guy like Garrett Wilson from Ohio State.

None of the QBs are good enough to go at the top of the round so if someone they like is still there at 32, maybe. More likely the guy they like goes in the teens somewhere and they'd have make a move if they want him.

If they can grab Nakobe Dean that would be swell. Guy is unreal.

Great OP's TJ!

Subscribing to post in epic bread!

i read where Jensen's play actually regressed quite a bit from his 2020 SB winning season. there's also this from the Athletic posted Thursday (Hopkins is obv referring to the current CIN center):

they need to be careful here bc Hamilton is being talked about as the best player in this draft in some corners, so only go down so far if your wish is to grab Hamilton.

i agree that taking a CB in this draft at #2 would be unwise, but calling Okudah a bust is a bit harsh, no? kid has been hit with some serious injuries.

Wilson is unlikely to still be on the board at #32.

Yeah, they can't gamble too much if they decide Hamilton is their guy, but I kinda suspect they'll fuel speculation that he is to try and buff the trade value of the 2 slot. I think they have confidence in their ability to uncover value at DB and they have so many needs that trading for even more picks would not surprise me.

I think Wilson may get overlooked a little. He's definitely mid-1st round talent, there are just a lot of guys that are and he might be a little undervalued. Someone is going to be there, just a question of how hot they are on any particular guy.

Don't think calling Okudah a bust is harsh at all. Yeah, he's had injuries, but he's been abysmal when healthy. And abysmal might be kind.

Ben Jones (UGA!) is a center who's made Pro Bowls and is also a FA, I think

He’d prolly be a decent bridge to a guy they draft? He’s good but will be 33 next season I’d guess?

I keep seeing Jordan Davis to the Bills at 25....not sure I'd agree with using a 1st round pick on a 2-down player. But he is good.

I'd like to see the Bills grab a WR there, instead. Such a deep class, and I agree with reloading your weapons when you can. Someone like a Chris Olave teamed with Diggs, Davis, Beasley, and Knox would be nice.

almost positive Olave won't be around at 25.

what round do we see 'Punt God' Matt Araiza being picked? i say early round 5.

Matt Araiza’s NFL Draft quandary: How high is too high to pick college football’s favorite punter?



paywalled link

https://theathletic.com/3153793/2022...vorite-punter/

for reference: the second punt was from the goal line and landed inside the opponent's 20.



he also likes to be the one to clean house on the tackle

pro: he's also a PK who missed one XP and never missed a FG inside 30 yards in three years
con: a lot of the advantage he seems to have is returners underestimating his leg, not setting up deep enough, and being surprised by the result. this wouldn't happen in the nfl.
neutral: don't know about his stats on punts inside the 20, inside the 10, touch backs, etc.

jesus, that dude has a BOOT!

I've also heard that he does some punt stat padding. Booming it through the end-zone instead of trying to down the ball inside the 10.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/m...couting-repor/

What's the word on Texas AM DL DeMarvin Leal? He played all over the line in college, but is he able to play any 1-tech in the NFL? Or is he more of a 3-tech?

Not sure but Zierlein and Brugler on last week's 'The Athletic Football Show' pod were sh*tting on him pretty hard. One of them had him as a third round pick.

Duke Tobin (CIN Dir of Player Personnel) and Zac Taylor spoke to the media yday in Indianpolis. The Athletic beat writers released a pod with some excerpts from the media session and their takes ahead of the NFL Combine. Here are some general takeways:

- the writers believe that only starting LT Jonah Williams will be a week 1 starter out of the core group that played oline for CIN last season.

- they believe CIN will target a guard (think SF's Laken Tomlinson) and a center (think BAL's Bradley Bozeman) in the non-top tier FA level of players.

- they believe Riley Reiff may be brought back on an affordable one year deal as a swing tackle backing up the starters.

- CIN drafted three oline in last year's draft, Tobin believes that many oline players make their biggest jumps after year one. the hope is that one of these guys can land a starting spot. if not, another starter may need to be found in FA or the draft.

- the writers could see CIN actually trading out of pick #31 to get more draft capital, but only go down 4 to 6 spots.

- the writers say that if CIN is able to find two oline starters in FA, then don't be surprised if CIN takes a CB at #31.

missed it live but heard about it and switched to NFL Network to catch the beginning of the second runs for WRs.

tOSU's Olave ran a 4.26 on his first run.