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The bigger piece to Montreal solving Toronto is its top line which remains one of the league’s best at five-on-five. While much has been made regarding Toronto’s dominance over Montreal, it’s worth noting that Brendan Gallagher, Montreal’s best player, was absent for six of those contests. When he did play, he had a 58 percent expected goals rate and all signs point to him being back in the lineup. The top line, with Gallagher on it, is a buzzsaw, earning a 69 percent expected goals percentage in 250 minutes together, outscoring opponents 18-to-3. At five-on-five they are a real problem and have the capability to shut down one of Toronto’s top two lines. When Gallagher was in the lineup the top line did a damn good job against Matthews and that’s potentially a troubling thought for Leafs fans.
Despite this Dom from Athletic says it's 80% plus for the Leafs. Says playoff Price is a casual fan creation, the sharps see that any goalie can get "hot" for a series, which is all Price has done, one series in like 2017 and the bubble/first round.
Says D is a huge advantage for Leafs. He isn't buying Weber as needing rest.
Says 2nd line
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Can Suzuki rise to the occasion there? He’s had flashes all season, scored at a 60-point pace and earned a 55 percent expected goals percentage, blossoming into a real top six center. But that may not be good enough in this series where he’ll have to face off against one of Matthews or Tavares. Toffoli should help, but it doesn’t seem like the team has another bonafide top six quality winger to assist the duo. Josh Anderson started strong, but he’s one of the team’s worst play-drivers.
I remember one period in particular, Habs up 2-0 to start 2nd. It was total Leaf domination. Habs ended up winning 2-1. One period, but I can see where Leafs talent can take over for stretches. This was when most everybody was playing for Habs.
otoh, early in the year, before covid, before Gally and everybody hurt...Habs were right up there and played the Leafs pretty solid. Habs were like 19-9-9 or something...losing every OT game...but no 3 on 3 now...the 2nd rated team in some advanced goal differential bs or something like that, before the wheels fell off, that is. So, a bit of luck, some hot goaltending...got some hope.