I pretty much agree with Next Gen on this 1

Maybe I'd bump the Titans to 45-47% in OT pre-coin toss, but agree with the rest

I did not work thru the #s, but in a highly leveraged situation like that 4th down play, I need to be fairly sure that OT is not much better than a coin flip. I did not watch the entire game but from what I saw BUF basically moved the ball downfield at will. How can anybody seriously estimate BUF at 42% win equity in OT? Makes absolutely zero sense to me. I would put it around 60%, but maybe I'm underestimating TEN chances to get a TD if they win the flip, which would be their most likely chance of winning.

Using generic stats is also probably not the best method of calculating win chances. I'd go with 70% to convert, then 70% to score TD, assuming 2 chances. That includes fumble/INT/penalty, which likely negates any TD scoring chance. If BUF get 3 plays, bump it up to 80%.

0.7×0.75 = 0525 WE (regulation)

0.7×0.25×0.6 = 0.105 WE (OT)

Total: 063 WE

Using those #s going for 4th was the play. B/E is 67.5% for successful 4th down conversion, and 72.5% TD after that. Probably a bit low, but within range.

Yeah - these were almost the exact numbers I was thinking - implied 85% to win after getting first down. Maybe like 15 seconds to go with 1 TO is prolly the breakeven to kicking when you maybe only get 3 passes to the endzone.

How can BUF WE be 42% for OT? That is really LOL bad. Tie chance is about 5%, so it can't be that.

Prolly lose some equity to Tenn scoring a last second FG - they would have the ball with 22 seconds and two timeouts.