Welcome to the 29th edition of the UEFA Champions League (66th including the old competitions).

First of all, sorry for the unusually late thread. Let's start by looking at last season first. Lets go over the questions asked in last season's OP first:

Well - let's just say the two Turkish clubs didn't do so well. Basaksehir failed to qualify after losing to Olympiacos in the qualifying round, while Galatasaray scored a whopping single goal in the group stage, going out last in the group with just two points to their name. But it didn't really matter either, because the final was not played in Istanbul due to a ****ing pandemic striking the planet and the final tournament moved to Lisbon. I'm starting to think my elite jinxing powers actually caused the pandemic by making this post in last June.

Ajax qualified for the group stage and did quite well, as usually 10 points are enough to qualify for the Round of 16. In their case, Valencia and Chelsea got 11 points, so Ajax had to settle for the Europa League. Blowing a 4-1 lead at Stamford Bridge proved to be decisive. They then lost to Getafe in the EL Round of 32 to drop out of European competition.

Just 4. Clearly in decline, Juventus getting knocked out in the Round of 16 didn't help either.

Arguably, there were two surprise semifinalist around this time, with Leipzig and Lyon joining their domestic rivals Bayern and PSG to make the semi-finals a German-French shootout. How far they would have come if the format hadn't been changed to the one-legged final tournament in Lisbon can obviously be discussed.


Onto the 2019-2020 RECAP:

An early prediction (similar to TheGramuel's tongue-in-cheek prediction in 2018-19, that almost became true):

He was indeed not joking, although others' predictions differed:



Most predicted it would once again be a battle between English and Spanish teams, with City (14) and Liverpool (12) gathering the most votes.

A bit of fore-shadowing was also done:

Usual thing happened:

The group stage was fairly uneventful, with most favorites getting through to the Round of 16, in particular Bayern with 18 points and a GD of +19. Debutants Atalanta were stuck at 0 points and 2-11 goals after 3 matches, but somehow managed to get 7 points out of their final three games to qualify with a -4 goal difference behind City.

THe Round of 16 draw brought a bunch of interesting ties, with Liverpool vs Atletico and City vs Real.

In mid-February, the first leg of the Round of 16 was held. The escalating COVID-19 crisis led to UEFA deciding to play behind closed doors, which made some people unhappy and led to many badly-aged takes and even a Trump/Hillary derail:


On the 10th and 11th of March, the first four of the second leg ties were played, with PSG knocking out Dortmund, Atalanta beating Valencia and Atletico knocking out defending champions Liverpool in extra-time while finalist Spurs dropped out to Leipzig.

Then, the rest of the ties were postponed until further notice as the number of COVID-19 cases in many European countries had sharply risen in the weeks before, some spikes directly attributed to some of the matches, especially the Atalanta-Valencia game in February.

For many weeks, it was unclear whether or not the season would eventually continue, leading to a bit of nostalgia in the meantime:

Finally, the decision was made to change the format and play the quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final in Portugal, with just single-leg matches to decide who advanced. The draw of the finals bracket was made in July, with one side being Atletico/Leipzig/Atalanta/PSG and the other half being all the quarterfinals yet waiting to be decided.

The quarter-final return legs were first to be completed:

Oh no, would Pep's FPS strike again? Not yet.

Lyon meanwhile beat Juventus, and with Bayern and Barca advancing, the quarter-final line-up was complete. First up, Atalanta - PSG:

Right on cue:

But, as so often, a match lasts at least 90 minutes: Two late goals by PSG turned the match around.

Next up, Leipzig vs. Atletico, where Leipzig surprisingly beat Atletico 2-0. Next up was Bayern vs. Barca. Bayern hadn't lost in all of 2020 so far and won the Bundesliga a month ago, while Barca had struggled in the post-COVID phase of the season, dropping the league title to Real.

Well, what can I say? It's usually not a good sign if the match has it's own Wikipedia article.

4-1. At half-time. But it got worse for Barca:

(Funny that the Video ID starts with XXX)

The result sent Barca into a week-long crisis, with Messi publicly stating his wish to leave Barca before eventually staying on.

One more match remained, City against Lyon:

1-0 to Lyon at HT.

An equalizer in the 69th minute!

Raheem Sterling has the chance to equalize, but:



On the direct counter-attack, Dembele scores his second to seal up the tie.



8bus was pretty mad at everyone, despite no-one even particularly mocking him.

The semifinals were no close affairs, with both Bayern and PSG winning 3-0 against their opponents, although the Bayern game could have ended much differently had Lyon not wasted their early chances. PSG reached their first CL final ever, while Bayern were looking to complete their second triple in seven years.

Some expected a goalfest, but it wasn't meant to be:



2020-21 season:

So, with 2019-20 in the books, let's finally take a look at this year's field: Usually this post goes up in June, but now I'm so late that qualifying has been done and even the group stage has been drawn already.

Group A: Bayern, Atlético, Red Bull Salzburg, Lokomotiv Moscow

Bayern is the defending champion and one of the obvious favorites to win the title again. Their unbeaten run recently ended with a 1-4 against Hoffenheim. Their main weakness might be the thin squad, which combined with fixture congestion and a high-workrate pressing gameplan might lead to a downswing eventually. Atlético, the eternal dark horse and 2014 and 2016 finalists once again will try to make a deep run in Europe. RB Salzburg will go into their second CL season in this tough group, and might eye the third place to at least stay in Europe. Lokomotiv Moscow has reached the CL for the first time since 2006 and is the clear underdog in the group.

To win the group: Bayern 1.4, Atletico 4, Salzburg 13, Lokomotiv 34

Group B: Real Madrid, Shakhtar, Inter, Mönchengladbach

Tough group for every team involved, to be quite honest. Obviously Real is expected to have the edge in this group, this one might be close and could also be impacted by COVID-shenanigans with bad timing. Inter has been challenging Juventus domestically and would also like to make a good run in the Champions League after losing the EL final to Sevilla in 2019-20. Donetsk and Gladbach will try to get as many upsets as possible to maybe profit off a slip-up by the top 2.

To win the group: Real 1.62, Inter 3.5, Mönchengladbach 8, Shakhtar 15.

Group C: Porto, Manchester City, Olympiacos, Marseille

City should be the clear favorite to win the group here, and is once again joint-favorite with Bayern to win the overall competition as well. Apparently, Pep's QF-fartsniffing has yet to be priced in. We will see how it goes. Porto is back in the CL after dropping out to Krasnodar in qualifying last season and will battle with Olympiacos and Ligue 1 powerhouse Marseille for 2nd in the group, unless City [i]really[i] screws up, which given their shaky EPL start might actually happen.
Marseille will make their first appearance since 2013-14, where they finished last with a 0-0-6 record and 5-14 goal difference. They would rather replicate their 2011-12 campaign, where they reached the quarter-final.

To win the group: City 1.25, Porto 7, Marseille 11, Olympiacos 26

Group D: Liverpool, Ajax, Atalanta, Midtjylland

Accurately dubbed "the hipster group", this group features many fan favorites. Liverpool, having won their first EPL title in thirty years, are the obvious favorites in this group. The fight for second place will be a tough one to predict, with both Atalanta and Ajax with a ggood shot (Atalanta acutally favored slightly by the bookies. And then there's CL group stage debutants Midtjylland, the Danish champions beat Ludogorets, Young Boys Bern and Slavia Prague to qualify for the first time.
Despite often finishing in the European places domestically, they only once qualified for the Europa League group stage in 2015-16, where they finished 2nd in the group and faced LVGs Manchester United in the Round of 32. They won the home leg 2-1 and even led 1-0 at Old Trafford, but eventually ended up losing 1-5 to be knocked out. They could end up being th decisive factor in this group, despite maybe not finishing in the Top 3.

To win the group: Liverpool 1.57, Atalanta 4.33, Ajax 6.5, Midtjylland 41

Group E: Sevilla, Chelsea, Krasnodar, Rennes

Sevilla qualified both via their domestic league position and by winning the Europa League for the billionth time (which actually put them into Pot 1 for the draw) - it will be most entertaining to see how they will end up in 3rd regardless. Chelsea is the other big-name team in the group and will likely be going for it after not having made it past the Round of 16 since 2014 (theyx are currently at 4 RO16 exits in a row).
Rennes seems to be pretty competitive according to betting odds and looking at their squad, I don't really recognize why. Maybe the French posters ITT can chime in. They will also have their CL debut. The second debutant is Russian runner-up Krasnodar, who beat PAOK in the playoffs to reach the group stage for the first time. Last year, they surprisingly beat Porto in the 3rd round of qualifying, but lost to Olympiacos one round later. Apparently, Marcus Berg is part of the squad (thought he was already way older, just 34 apparently).

To win the group: Chelsea 2.3, Sevilla 2.76, Rennes 6.5, Krasnodar 17

Group F: Zenit, Dortmund, Lazio, Brugge

Another competitive group. Dortmund - with a young but very talented squad - are the slight favorites, while Lazio will make their CL comback after 13 years. Their last effort was a 4th place Group stage exit against Real, Olympiacos and Werder Bremen(!). Also in 4th place last season was Zenit St. Petersburg (despite reaching 7 points and a -2 GD, better than Atalanta!). They will be hoping to at least finish 3rd to continue European football. Brugge were declared Belgian champion after their league was cancelled due to the COVID-19 situation, and will be the group's underdog.

To win the group: Dortmund 1.83, Lazio 3.5, Zenit 6, Club Brugge 21

Group G: Juventus, Barcelona, Dynamo Kyiv, Ferencváros

The headline of this group is obviously "Ronaldo vs. Messi". The two aging superstars might have one last showdown on the pitch here. Both their clubs are also the big favorites to qualify for the ROund of 16, with Dynamo Kyiv and Hungarian champions Ferencvaros probably fighting for 3rd.

To win the group: Barcelona 1.91, Juventus 1.95, Kiev 26, Ferencvaros 51

Group H: PSG, Manchester United, Leipzig, Istanbul Basaksehir

Another stacked group to round things off - previous finalists PSG are desperate to go one step further this time around, Manchester United are happy to be back in the top European competition, Leipzig will try to replicate their 2019-20 run, and then there's another Istanbul club not named Galatasaray/Besiktas/Fenerbahce who will make their debut in the group stage (and try to reach the final held in Istanbul, fingers crossed ). I think this one might be fun to watch.

To win the group: PSG 1.7, Man United 3.25, Leipzig 7, Istanbul 26

With all that said, let's look at DER MARKT for the overall win:



Must say I kinda like Madrid at those odds. But the competition seems more open than ever, especially with some potential COVID variance thrown in the mix.

Dates*:

Matchday 1: 20–21 October 2020
Matchday 2: 27–28 October 2020
Matchday 3: 3–4 November 2020
Matchday 4: 24–25 November 2020
Matchday 5: 1–2 December 2020
Matchday 6: 8–9 December 2020
Round of 16: 1st leg 16–17 & 23–24 February 2021, 2nd leg 9–10 & 16–17 March 2021
Quarters: 6–7 April 2021, 13–14 April 2021
Semis: 27–28 April 2021, 4–5 May 2021
Final: 29 May 2021 at Atatürk Olympic Stadium, Istanbul

So, let us GO GO GO.

A+

Brilliant

Nice OP.

--

I'm going for Bayern to defend it. Easy league, able to rest/not get stressed out etc rotation is going to be key. PSG in the same bracket but have a team full of arseholes.

United aren't going to get out the group, will be pleasantly surprised if we do.

One of the best OPs in recent memory

Liverpool walks it having sniped Bayern’s best player

Great OP

thanks for the OP

no more SARS-CoV-2 bullshjt this season please

What an OP

very nice op!

Fatal with the OP OP

Not feeling Cavani back in Parc des Princes, smells like an obvious sick burn.

I like those best.

Great OP.

PSG gonna do it this year

30 yards screamer for Lovren

bit lucky but still lol

An American on the score sheet in CL!!! What a time to be alive

In for 6 game weeks of watching United find their way back into the EL

WTF is that United kit

Lol bruno

Has he just booked Neymar simply for being Neymar?

Axel for starting CB!

Rashford was away like a zebra then

Those penalties shouldn't be retaken.

Bruno needs to start sticking these pens away first time as well though.

loooooool rashford