OK...I'll bet he has less than 50 TDs, which is a regression. You want to take the over?

Come at me with $$

Even ignoring that the top fantasy pick is based on a combination of upside/floor/volume/etc, Mahomes is still the top ranked QB in fantasy for 2019 so this comparison doesn't seem relevant. Expecting to surpass 50/5000 in a given year though is just crazy imo.

Saquon is more likely to approach his production last year than Mahomes imo especially if Hill doesn't play which looks likely

but Mahomes getting 39 TD and 4k+ yards is still a fantastic year and that wouldnt' surprise me

Yeah I'm not expecting but I wouldn't be surprised if he did. With Tyreek/Kelce on the team and a suspect D he's going to be asked to throw a lot again this year. He's good for 40+ again this year. His ceiling has to be 50+ any given year.

Do you think at 23 Mahomes just had the best year of his career?

Marino did

Good point but Marino throwing 48 TDs in 1984 is way more of an outlier than Mahomes throwing 50 in 2018.

Basically QBs never threw more than 40 TDs until the 2000's. I dont see Mahomes having less than 500 passing attempts ever in his career.

one of the top 3 seasons, although it's tough to measure "best" since I expect the NFL to have full on arena league scores within the next decade.

2013 Manning 55 TD passes - bottom half defense

2007 Brady 50 TD passes - NE had an elite D but that was the year they ran up the score on everybody all the time.

2018 Mahomes 50 TD passes - KC one of the worst defenses in the league

2004 Manning 49 TD passes - Indy one of the worst defenses in yards allowed below average in points allowed

1984 Marino 48 TD passes - I have no idea

2011 Brees 46 TD passes - Bottom third defense

2011 Rodgers 45 TD passes - worst D in the league that year.

1986 Marion 44 TD passes - I have no idea

2012 Brees 43 TD passes - Worst defense in the league

2011 Stafford 41 TD passes - Bottom 3rd defense

KC signed an overrated safety and let go one of their best pass rushers. They signed Emmanuel Ogbah who could perform surprisingly well but if he doesn't this defense could be one of the worst in the league again.

Matthieu grades out a lot better than an over-rated safety. Frank Clark should more than replace Ford. Ogbah and Okafor are upgrades. Jones will be back and Nnadi looked pretty good. Speaks looks like a complete bust to me but for some reason the pundits still think he could flash. Maybe Hitchens won't suck back in a 4-3.

Not having the Berry distraction should help. Houston had a good year but seemed to be phoning it in at times. I think he and Berry said all the right things as a the D leaders - but were also on their last payday and maybe their hearts' not totally in it - which of course the other players can pick up on.

Cornerback is the huge question. They are super thin and Ward is a question mark. A lot of the Chiefs pundits still seem to think they might make a move there before the season.

But by far most importantly - Spags is going to be a GIGANTIC upgrade over Sutton - who was transparently predictable and had completely lost the players. If the Chiefs don't get a SB out of this run of one of the best offenses the league has seen in a while - which is of course imminently possible - not firing Sutton a year earlier will be the biggest mistake Reid made. Sutton should have been fired after the Colts meltdown. Reid is too loyal.

Anyway imo assuming CB doesn't blow up - the D should be better - maybe top 20.

A quick check shows the '84 Dolphins had the 7th best scoring Defense in the league.

10th most yards allowed 7th most yards per play.

Safe to say they probably weren't a good defense but I'm not sure.

The point is if KC's D doesn't improve dramatically they will be leaning on Mahomes to save them again this year. Him and Tyreek getting ready to crush the league again even more than last year..........obviously 50 is a huge number but Mahomes is capable and if the right ingredients are there he might surprise you guys.

Miami was the poster child of "bend-don't-break" defenses in the 80's. Worked good most of the time but when they got tired they'd just fall apart and couldn't stop the run or pass.

Rodgers been slumping ever since 2011 but when you have that high of a peak you got plenty of room to slump.

Jarrett is good DL just getting paid more then any other non-QB right now. Clowney will get tagged again if he stays healthy. When Clowney eventually gets paid it'll be massive. Then Myles Garrett and Joey Bosa will likely top Khalil Mack's deal. DL market will be good for awhile. CB needs Ramsey to get a huge deal and set the table for Lattimore, Humphrey, White, etc.

That's a pretty optimistic write up there. Frank Clark is a good player and so is Ogbah but they have to put up 22 sacks and tons of pressures(I'm assuming) just to replace Ford and Houston. Plus it's not like KC was a top 15 D last year. They were pretty bad. Coaching could help but it would be at least mildly surprising if they were a top 15 unit this year.

Ford is not a complete player - he's a sack machine - and even that for only one year. Clark is much more complete against the pass and run. He's a clear upgrade by pretty much any serious analyst I've heard.

Houston was about done anyway so I'm not too worried about losing him. He benefited a lot from us being in the lead often, and Ford's breakout year drawing attention away. A lot of other players might have had very good numbers as well in that spot.

Top 15 is probably the wildly-optimistic ceiling. Top 20 is just normal optimistic imo.

They upgraded at pash rusher and safety bruh.

I'm thinking more push than upgrade.

In what universe is Matthieu not an upgrade over Eric Murray?

Yeah he's an upgrade over Eric Murray like Sammy Watkins was an upgrade over Albert Wilson. We'll just have to see how it plays out but I think you'll be disappointed just like you are with Sammy Watkins.

Reminder that Spags is historically awful.

Might still be an upgrade, but not a big one.

I mean, I don't think his performance will slump, but with numbers as big as he had last year, obviously he might not match them.

This is an interesting question. On the one hand I think the run game will suffer without the threat of Beckham. On the other, the offense is gonna be focused on Saquon, and he catches a TON of passes which makes for a reliable floor of production with RBs. The OL should be improved too. (Trade for Zeitler, get Halapio back from injury, 0 snaps from Ereck Flowers)

lol

Saquon is gonna rush for 2k yards.

He’s like the progeny of Shaq and Barry Sanders.

They were a solid defense. Often playing with a lead and shula loved the prevent defense giving up the soft stuff in the middle and short. Back then offensive coordinators hadn't figured out that taking the soft short passes was optimal, so such a defensive scheme wasn't as dumb as it would be now. You could count on lots of I formation runs, play action to the tight end, and ocassional bombs, and that's more or less what Shula schemed against.

Fun fact: Only 1 QB in history has ever thrown 40+ TDs in consecutive seasons. Guess who it is