Didn't realize going 8-5 and 8-6 Josh Allen's 2 years starting is something we should be bragging about. Is Kiper on crack or seriously racist? L'ville went 8-5 and 9-4 in a much tougher conference.

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/2/20/1...-wide-receiver

Allen's escapability is completely absurd. So his highlight reel is great but because of that he goes to it over making simple throws. He's gonna take unreal sacks putting his team out of FG range because of this. He does have the arm strength to make NFL throws and can hit that middle out pretty well that NFL teams salivate over so he might really be #1 pick (sorry cleveland).

Lamar has way higher football IQ in the pocket than the NFL scouts realize. Same as it ever was. Saying he should go to WR already is just plain stupid, he's a way better prospect than Pryor was. Lamar's accuracy issues are weird, the guy hits deep and bucket throws but over the middle can get wonky. Lamar sticks in the pocket, high poise, his unreal athleticism masks some of the traditional tools he has that teams covet. The accuracy issue is alwasy gonna hit with some teams, but when you can run like he does you don't have to be quite as accurate. Cam Newton isn't a 60% thrower.

Lamar is calm/calculated. Allen is a bit wreckless.

This narrative Lamar is raw doesn't hold up on the film.

lol

Barkley is certainly an elite talent but man does he leave yards on the table trying to hit a homerun all the time. Barry Sanders mentality but I don't think he'll have that level to get away with it at the NFL.

I said that post before I got to this play a good illustration of my point (it's at exactly 4 minutes, I failed at embedding it), we're up 15 late in the 3rd quarter at our own 6, this is a 2 yard run, instead he nearly gives up a god damn safety. If I was his RB coach my god I'd blow a gasket at him after this play. His film against the top defenses is just so-so because of flaws like this and he's a projected sure thing top 5 pick apparently.

That said, there have been RB's who've fixed this flaw but there's been many who haven't. I think taking him in the top 10 is way too high simply because of that flaw and as a result higher than usual at the position bust potential.

.

here's a quick summary of my thoughts on Barkley (feel free to flame away).

there's no doubt he is a freak athlete, but i'm not sure he's worth a 1st round pick.

in games against Ohio St, Indiana, and Rutgers he averaged less than 3 ypc. OSU can be understood since they were 6th against the run, but IU and Rutgers were both ranked >60.

if you subtract the longest rush per game and re-calculate his YPC, this results in 8 out of 13 games result in averaging less than 3 YPC. i think this is a reasonable way of normalizing for undisciplined college defenses and trying to predict what happens against NFL schemes. yes, some of his yardage is a result of his explosiveness, but i'm not sure he has the vision to maximize yards on every rush.

as a comparison, here are the last college season results for some of the top NFL rookie RBs from last season:

Fournette: 1 game of < 3ypc, 2 games <3 ypc after subtracting the longest rush
Mixon: 0 games of <3 ypc, 5 games <3ypc after subtracting the longest rush
Cook: 0 games of <3 ypc, 1 game <3ypc after subtracting the longest rush
McCaffrey: 0 games of <3 ypc, 1 game <3ypc after subtracting the longest rush

latest noise is that the cost for the Bills to get to #2 for Rosen will be 21st, 22nd, 2019 2nd Rd Pick and Cordy Glenn.

I mean, if the Bills think Rosen is their guy, then I don't hate this. If they rate 4 of the QBs all the same, this would be a stupid move.

That's more than they got for passing up Mahomes/Watson lmao.

Rosen might go first though, I suspect he's the guy that looks the most right for NFL teams.

PSUs oline was garbage bro.

He is also a better pass catcher and run blocker than zeke.

Barkley will be an all pro rb in the NFL. He has a Gurley grade. once every 5 year or so rb. healthy and clean off the field as well.

okay time for some qb takes.

I don't get naths love of Lamar Jackson. dude will never be a top 10 NFL qb. why waste a first on that.

darnold will be blah. one thing in his favor is that he had onlu been a q.b. for 4 years and had good intangibles.

Allen dude. arm strength is the most overrated qb trait ever. you either have an NFL arm or not. How many nfl offenses are even YOLO any more? arians retired. flood concepts, meshes, etc. are 10x more important than post routes.he does show some examples of working outside of the scheme. if you are a fan of mahomes, which a lot of you ****ers are i see a lot of mahomes in Allen.

I'm kind of in on baker and mason. none of these qbs seem as good as Wentz, goff, mm, or Winston.

The question is what O line he had in front. Fournette ran over everybody except 2 teams - Alabama and Arkansas - they both had enormous D lines stacked with prospects. But the fault there wasn't Fournette's, it was that his O line was overmatched.

People tend to think running bad against Bama indicates he can't handle NFL competition, but that's not a good interpretation. It just means the line in front of them isn't future NFL level. It's a bad indicator for those linemen as prospects, but doesn't say much about the backs behind them.

FYP

I mean the guy quite obviously carries his offense and the low completion % is due to an incredible drop rate. If you don't offer anything beyond "I don't think so" then I guess I can't dispute that.

Nah, Rosen isn't quite as white as Darnold or Allen. IDK if there actually is some kind of anti-semitic bias to the NFL as well, but I do know that the fact that Rosen talks and things about things besides football is apparently considered a red flag for coaches who want a yes-sir football robot.

My new favorite Lamar Jackson smear is that Lousiville's offense is oversimplified, which is completely false:



But for some reason, when Ryan Mallett was coming out of college, his experience in Bobby Petrino's pro-style offense was a plus:

Thinking Louisville isn't a pro style offense is just plain lazy/stupid. Lots of college QB's take off because they panicked but from the admittedly little film I've seen of Lamar, when he took off it was because that was the best decision for him to do.

He gets lots of Griffin comps but he reminds me more of Vick. Vick was only 56% comp in college and as a professional. Both those guys went at the top of the draft and they want to move Lamar to WR??? Yeah he's not the perfect mold but it's completely ****ing absurd to think he shouldn't be given a shot.

Vick and RG3 were the centerpieces of top 10 offenses that made playoffs in their first year starting but Lamar will NEVER be a top 10 NFL QB.

As someone with professional experience scouting Galloway's offense at UL I can professionally say its is 100% pro-style offense.

Needle,
Your thoughts on Lamar as a prospect?

Here's Chris Brown (the Smart Football guy) owning Greg Gabriel

The Lamar Jackson drop rate info is in that SB Nation article I linked, but here it is to see for yourself.

As we've seen my projection from high school to college is pretty damn good but my projections from college to NFL are...bad to say the least. Good thing I never got paid to be an NFL scout =\.

From not having any full field tape on Lamar I would say from what I've seen, Lamar looks just about as elite of a prospect as we have in the draft. Baker still seems head and shoulders above the rest in terms of raw talent, no idea how well he can be coached or run a real offense. Rosen and Darnold are obviously good prospects that seem to have hard ceilings on them but solid floors as opposed to a number of QBs that have come out in recent years(aka, they seem safe picks to be starters through their rookie contracts but I don't know if they will show elite ability).

I would have to sit down and watch a whole lot more before I was super comfortable giving my NEEDLE STAMP. Oh and that NEEDLE STAMP doesn't mean anything unless your name is Laremy Tunsil. (remember, I'm the guy that thought Aaron Donlad was going to get swallowed up because he did not develop any pass rushing moves in college and just won on athleticism...lol@me). I definitely value technique way too high in the College to NFL transition.

Reading that twitter exchange Nath posted:

There is also a huge disconnect of Twitter scouts/blogger scouts/media scouts of what is RPO/Hot route options/designed hand offs/ect. I feel like we are living in a football world where "Oh they threw the ball when the OL took a step forward it must be RPO" when that was play-action pass for 40 years of the NFL to draw a LB down. Play action isn't just the motion of handing the ball to the RB it's also throwing off a LB's first read of the line.

Most people probably don't know but LB's eyes are on the guards at the beginning of every play. They don't watch the QB so a fake handoff means less today than it did 15 years ago and even 5 years ago. It's all about that first step by the OL. But it's being called "RPO" when it's play action and QB's are getting credit for making the "right call" when it was a designed pass.

A lotta of arm chair scouts right now are getting a lot of things wrong.

which is why i get excited every time i see you post something...
...please don't stop.