Yeah, the guy did mention it's hard to draw any conclusions from his study...

I'm just not a fan of Allen. QB's with a college completion rate as low as Allen's rarely get better in the NFL. He's really going to need to be in the right situation in order to succeed.

The more I see of him, the more I think Mayfield is going to be the next Drew Brees. The kid just has "it." Guys with that kind of confidence and balls and leadership don't often have such great stats.

Darnold's numbers in that study is interesting...it just reconfirms my own belief that he's nothing special.

But who the hell knows?

LOL

Yeah, and with Allen in particular, the context actually makes his numbers look worse.

I think I have it right now as Rosen and Jackson are pretty close with Mayfield a touch behind. Buyer beware on Sam Darnold in the top 5 and on Josh Allen as anything but a developmental prospect.

Josh Allen reminds me more of Christian Hackenberg than a viable starting quarterback.

Why aren’t you concerned with Jackson’s accuracy?

Unpopular opinion alert:

Josh Allen is a much better QB than Hack & should be an average or better NFL starter within 3 years, unless he gets Fisher'd.

Why? Odds are he's going to a **** org.

I'm not not concerned, but where context for Allen's completion percentage disfavors him, the opposite is true for Jackson. His YPA is comparable to guys like Darnold and Rosen with a higher completion percentage, suggesting he threw downfield more often; he played tougher competition than Allen; he didn't have the kind of quality offensive talent around him that Allen did; he lost significantly more completions to receiver error than Allen did (see drop% in Charles McDonald's graphic); on film he makes better and more consistent reads / progressions, as well as throws; and also, he's such an effective runner that even if his passing isn't top-notch he can be a positive / franchise QB.

There's never gonna be a perfect QB prospect, but you gotta look at how a guy puts together his tools and how consistently he can perform. Lamar has some accuracy errors over the middle and can occasionally pull a boneheaded throw but you see a lot more good than bad from him on film. Allen's highs are very high but they're just so rare. (I actually thought Rodger Sherman at The Ringer did a good job succinctly summarizing why Allen is overrated, and how he doesn't even compare well to the small-school prospects who became successful NFL QBs that his defenders try to compare him to.)

I do think Allen is a better prospect than Hackenberg, because Hackenberg wasn't even capable of the highs Allen is capable of, and he couldn't really run either.

That's not saying much, though. QBing isn't about your highlight film; it's about getting it done play in and play out. I'd like Allen as a day-3 developmental prospect; he needs so much work to have a chance. That said, he compares most similarly to Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert in my view, and I suspect the NFL hasn't learned enough not to take those guys in the top 10.

Getting Fisher'd is a figure of speech that includes other incompetent situations, not just those that involve Jeff Fisher.

Yeah, I'm probably a sucker. I just feel like most of the issues are caused by getting used to a larger frame & some sketchy footwork. I think he's probably going to be Cutler-ish. I also don't think a more athletic Drew Bledsoe coming out of college is a terrible comp.

Bledsoe:

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1990	Washington State	Pac-10		QB	7	92	189	48.7	1386	7.3	7.3	9	4	121.8
1991	Washington State	Pac-10		QB	11	199	358	55.6	2741	7.7	6.7	17	15	127.2
*1992	Washington State	Pac-10		QB	12	241	432	55.8	3246	7.5	6.9	20	15	127.2
Career	Washington State					532	979	54.3	7373	7.5	6.9	46	34	126.2

Cutler:

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2002	Vanderbilt	SEC	FR	QB	11	103	212	48.6	1433	6.8	5.8	10	9	112.4
2003	Vanderbilt	SEC	SO	QB	12	187	327	57.2	2347	7.2	6.5	18	13	127.7
2004	Vanderbilt	SEC	JR	QB	11	147	241	61.0	1844	7.7	7.5	10	5	134.8
2005	Vanderbilt	SEC	SR	QB	11	273	462	59.1	3073	6.7	6.7	21	9	126.1
Career	Vanderbilt					710	1242	57.2	8697	7.0	6.6	59	36	125.9

Allen:

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7

Dunno. Just seems like these tall, big-armed dudes can take a little time to reign in their mechanics. This is a weird argument for me to make. I'm fully aware how he's the type of guy who routinely gets over-drafted & was one of the biggest lol'ers of Hack. I just think in the right system this guy could be totally competent.

Still wouldn't draft him before LJax or Rosen, though, & maybe not before Darnold. Most people seem to think Allen is boom or bust. I think there's actually reasons that someone like him is more likely to achieve competence & less likely to ever be great. I think LJax, Rosen, Darnold & Mayfield all have higher upsides.

My opinion on this is weird & indefensible, but it is what it is.

and what's the adjustment for 1990s Pac-10 & 2000s SEC vs 2017 MWC?

Competent WRs

Beyond the adjustments for era: Drew Bledsoe led Washington State to a top-15 ranking with surrounding talent that combined for one career catch in the NFL. Allen's top three targets in 2016 each had more than that in each of their rookie seasons this year. (Not much more, but still.) And Allen won less against much easier competition and largely backed by his defense. Cutler didn't win, but he was up against far more difficult competition than Allen or Bledsoe and definitely didn't have much surrounding talent.

That said, this is pretty funny.

I think the Bills have a real shot at drafting Jackson, so I’m pleased to see he has that potential.

i'll be the first to admit i haven't seen a lot of Allen game film, but i did watch the entire game this season vs Oregon. there wasn't much of anything at all in that game that would lead me to believe he has 'it' or anything currently close.
he just didn't shine.
i understand that the o-line for weaker college teams will break down against better opponents forcing the QB to improvise, and the WRs will drop balls or run the wrong route, but even in those circumstances i expect a NFL level QB to do something that grabs your attention and gives you a glimpse of what could be at the next level. Allen didn't show any of that.

i remember a good article by barnwell a while back that was basically "if your 6'6 prototypical pro style stud is a top 10 prospect then he's probably good, but outside of that top 10 you should look for more unconventional QB prospects that are elite in unconventional systems"

+1

Cutler blows. Would rather have a garbage QB so can move on more quickly. Broncos got it right on Cutler.

I'm good with teams drafting the next Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, or Gabbert.

GL to those teams.

Yeah-- someone playing at a lower school who is being hyped as a top prospect should be popping pretty regularly. And as I've said before, Allen actually had a substantial amount of supporting talent (at least in 2016) for a QB at his level. And then this year he couldn't break 100 yards passing against Hawai'i.

That makes a certain sense; the problem is that the guys who look like the prototype often get elevated to top-10 picks even when their performance doesn't merit it.

Poor blocking and his receivers can't catch anything contested:

First pass is literally him throwing a ball so low to a wide open guy seven yards away that he can't get any YAC, lol

I saw two drops on that video. I saw just as many passes that could've been intercepted but weren't. I saw Allen miss two screen passes. What you call "his receivers can't catch anything contested" I call "He keeps trying to fit balls into heavy coverage that he shouldn't." I did see Allen complete a fair number of passes in the 5-10 yard range, but that's about it.

I don't see anything on there that indicates a top prospect. On top of that, we literally have data that Allen had one of the lowest drop rates of any of the QB prospects. And what was his excuse for being bad in 2016, when he had four players on his offense who went on to the NFL?

i searched youtube for 'josh allen highlights vs oregon 2017' and similar variants. it's interesting there seems be all the other 2017 games on youtube with every pass he makes except for the oregon game.

here's what seems to be the official wyoming highlight video



there's not a single Allen pass shown in an almost 4 minute hightlight video of the game....hmmmmm

Bumping this since it got lost