Saw a stat that Josh McCown was the only starting QB in the NFL this season with a lower completion % in college.

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1998	SMU	WAC		QB	9	46	99	46.5	619	6.3	4	7	8	106.2
1999	SMU	WAC		QB	10	125	234	53.4	1434	6.1	5.1	11	10	111.9
2000	SMU	WAC	JR	QB	11	169	331	51.1	1969	5.9	4.3	9	16	100.3
Career	SMU					340	664	51.2	4022	6.1	4.6	27	34	105.3

It is amazing that this guy:
a) got drafted in the 3rd round &
b) had a fairly successful NFL career

He makes Josh Allen look super successful...

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
2015	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	2	4	6	66.7	51	8.5	8.5	0	0	138.1
*2016	Wyoming	MWC	SO	QB	14	209	373	56.0	3203	8.6	8.3	28	15	144.9
2017	Wyoming	MWC	JR	QB	11	152	270	56.3	1812	6.7	6.9	16	6	127.8
Career	Wyoming					365	649	56.2	5066	7.8	7.7	44	21	137.7

Then there's always the Brett Favre comp...

Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1987	Southern Mississippi	Ind		QB	11	79	194	40.7	1264	6.5	5.0	15	13	107.6
1988	Southern Mississippi	Ind		QB	11	178	319	55.8	2271	7.1	7.4	16	5	129.0
1989	Southern Mississippi	Ind		QB	11	206	381	54.1	2588	6.8	6.3	14	10	118.0
1990	Southern Mississippi	Ind		QB	11	150	275	54.5	1572	5.7	5.2	7	6	106.6
Career	Southern Mississippi					613	1169	52.4	7695	6.6	6.2	52	34	116.6

This profile somehow got him drafted in the 2nd round. Dunno. We'll see, but I doubt he's good.

Waterwolves would have taken him in the 1st round - he had a 38.5 vert at the combine

I guess those stats are missing McCown's senior year at Sam Houston State because they were 1-A only...

Year	Team
		Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	TD	Int	Rtg	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
1998	SMU	46	99	46.5	619	6.3	7	8	106.2	51	35	0.7	0
1999	SMU	125	234	53.4	1,434	6.1	11	10	111.9	69	−9	−0.1	1
2000	SMU	169	331	51.1	1,969	5.9	9	16	100.3	78	175	2.2	3
2001	Sam Houston State	259	429	60.4	3,481	8.1	32	12	147.6	112	351	3.1	6
Career		599	1,093	54.8	7,503	6.9	59	46	121.9	310	552	1.7	10

Brett Favre played 2-3 SEC teams a year if I recall along with FSU and other good teams and nearly always on the road. They beat Bama and Auburn in one year I think and a top 3 FSU team another year. Favre was running for his life on every drop back and still making enough plays to give his team a chance. He was amazing in college.

FYP

Here's the Senior year schedule & such...

G	Date	Day	School		Opponent	Conf		Pts	Opp	W	L	T	Streak	Notes
1	1-Sep-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi		Delta State	Non-Major	W	12	0	1	0	0	W 1
2	8-Sep-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	(13)*Alabama	SEC	W	27	24	2	0	0	W 2	Birmingham, AL
3	15-Sep-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	Georgia	SEC	L	17	18	2	1	0	L 1
4	22-Sep-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	Mississippi State	SEC	L	10	13	2	2	0	L 2
5	29-Sep-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi		Louisville	Ind	W	25	13	3	2	0	W 1
6	6-Oct-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	East Carolina	Ind	W	16	7	4	2	0	W 2
7	13-Oct-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	Tulane	Ind	W	20	14	5	2	0	W 3
8	20-Oct-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi		Memphis	Ind	W	23	7	6	2	0	W 4
9	27-Oct-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	Virginia Tech	Ind	L	16	20	6	3	0	L 1
10	3-Nov-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	Louisiana-Lafayette	Ind	W	14	13	7	3	0	W 1
11	10-Nov-90	Sat	Southern Mississippi	@	(15)*Auburn	SEC	W	13	12	8	3	0	W 2
12	28-Dec-90	Fri	(23)*Southern Mississippi	N	North Carolina State	ACC	L	27	31	8	4	0	L 1	All-American Bowl (All-American Bowl (Birmingham, AL)

Some impressive wins. Interesting they never scored more than 27 all season.

All of their losses were by 4 points or less. Bummer.

Scouts, almost rightly so, like QBs who take **** teams to greatness by themselves.

Eight road games wasn't unusual with four SEC teams. They had a good, scrappy defense but Favre carried that offense. He was the original kid having fun out there.

It's only a sick beat if they intended on taking him, and I don't think they did. Minnesota gave a 2nd and 4th to move up, right? Texans had higher picks in both rounds and could have beaten the Vikings' offer if the Seahawks had notified them of it.

I guess like 20? He played at a higher level than Palmer did in the early years, but like Palmer, Luck's injury may stunt him and/or leave his future in doubt. If he fully rebounds then it's a zero obviously.

In 2016 he had a WR, RB, TE, and center who all went on to NFL squads. Despite this, he only completed 56% of his passes in the Mountain West conference and his team went 8-6.

In 2017, he had a defense that was ranked in the top ten FBS defenses by most metrics. With that behind him, he led the team to an 8-5 record while again completing 56% of his passes.

A player who's supposed to be an NFL franchise QB prospect should dominate at that level, especially with that kind of supporting talent. That was a good situation, and he did not flourish.

Yeah, and that's the thing, Josh Allen had a lot of good talent around him in a soft conference generally known for poor defense, and he couldn't lead the team to better than fourth in the conference. Wyoming's scoring dropped off 12 points per game with those NFL guys gone. Almost like they carried Allen rather than the other way around.

there was no such thing as offense back then.
the stats below are for 11 games because this was back in the day when bowl games didn't count toward season stats (if you're curious why, i'm sure Barry Sanders would be happy to fill you in).

QBs
1. Rosen 2. Jackson 3. Allen 4. Darnold 5. Rudolph

Jackson's positives: production, mobility, ability to make every throw, should outweigh his slight frame and occasional inaccuracy from mechanical breakdowns

Allen's 56% completion is in the context of a pro-style offense where he was asked to make difficult throws to overmatched teammates. If a few more screen passes were called per game his completion % goes up and people view his accuracy differently despite being the same player.

Darnold has size, accuracy, anticipation but his arm strength isn't great and decision-making inconsistent

Rudolph just throwing to open guys b/c Big 12 but his size and deep ball are good

Really want Mo Hurst to be there when the Lions pick

No, I don't think so. If this were true, that would show up in his yards per attempt numbers and his catchable passes.









This is the Josh Allen experience in a nutshell really, and it's those highlights that are going to have teams salivating despite the wild lack of consistency and poor overall performance

Yup hes the guy i want as well. Watched almost all his games this year and kept thinking man this is the guy we need on the lions. Hes a beast. Kind of worried he moves up the draft boards into the top 15 range and is gone by time we pick. For now hes been mocked to us or around us in alot of places so lets hope we get him.

Teams still looking for pro style QBs in a league where the most innovative and overperforming offenses are the early adapters of the college spread?

Browns' QB candidate Josh Allen chuckles about his airball, but hopes to get the last laugh

Lol, it'll get much easier when he's trying to fit balls into NFL windows and not having to deal with Mountain West defenses anymore?

This guy on the Bills board did an interesting study:

I did a study I posted recently on the forum involving career college passing yards and career college rushing yards for QB's as a % of total yardage gained vs correlation to success. Part of the fault in that study was using subjective material to qualify success. This is the same study, just objective criteria.



I included career winning % in games started for each subset of data



Busts are defined by any QB that did not start at least 64 games (4 seasons) in his career in the NFL. Active players were excluded from the sample on Busts unless near certain 64 game expectation exists (Derek Carr/62 games, etc). Active player are included toward winning%.



Draft pick sample is from 2000 on



QB's who had 17.5% or more total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round

Record Starting Games in NFL: 227 and 204 (52.7%)
Bust Rate: 8 of 10 (80%)
Qualifiers: Lamar Jackson


QB's who had between .5% and 17.5% total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round

Record Starting Games 1,362 and 1,289 (51.4%)
Bust Rate: 12 of 26 (46.2%)
Qualifiers: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold


QB's drafted who had .5% or less total yards from rushing in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round

Record Starting Games 336 and 396 (45.9%)
Bust Rate: 10 of 13 (76.9%)
Qualifiers: Josh Rosen, Mason Rudolph


Analysis: This is one of the most dominant stat profiles in the study on who to avoid. It's a small sample, but you could see some logic behind the data. If you are running as a means to generate offense in college at a high rate you are also using that escape ability as a means to generate offense in the air through unconventional means. You will be less likely to be successful running the ball at the NFL level. Conversely at very low levels most QB's have negative career rushing yards in college. This could lend itself to poor pocket awareness.



All and all the bust rate on outliers as it relates to yards gained on the ground is a staggering 18 of 23 (78%) with Rosen, Rudolph, and Jackson all being in outlier profiles. While the bust rate on non outlier profiles is just 46.2%, with prospects that include Mayfield, Allen, and Darnold.



QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round

Record Starting Games in NFL: 1,025 and 877 (53.9%)
Bust Rate: 10 of 20 (50%)
Qualifiers: Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen

QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted in 1st or 2nd round

Record starting Games: 490 and 708 (40.9%)
Bust Rate: 19 of 24 (79.2%)
Qualifiers: Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson

QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted in the 1st or 2nd round

Record Starting Games: 410 and 304 (57.4%)
Bust Rate: 1 of 5 (20%)
Qualifiers: Josh Allen


Analysis: Passing yards/production in the air does matter, especially when you partner it with NFL scouts giving you a high grade. Players that are above 9,300 yards in large part have started since day one in college, have been either consistently productive or excessively productive over 2-3 years. More likely to have stayed a full 4 years improving maturation. Rudolph, Mayfield, and Rosen fit this profile, with Mayfield having the highest career passing yardage numbers out of any 1st or 2nd round pick drafted since 2000.



Once you go under 5,500 yards you see a clear trend emerge. Very high draft picks. These tend to be the freak type QB's that either explode on the scene or have measurable's off the charts. It's not common to see this occur but we likely will see Allen fall into this profile.



Middle of the rode QB's on the production front have been awful since the 2000 draft, 40.9% winning % and nearly an 80% bust rate on 24 players. Think EJ/JP, they fit in this group. They have the measurable's but generally speaking they weren't able to translate that into elite production on the field (Jackson would be an exception to that statement). Scouts should be very cautious of this combination.



So what does the passing data look like when you get out of elite draft pick status?

Pretty much the same. .....



QB's with 9,300 or more career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round

Record Starting Games 500 and 416 (54.6%)
Bust Rate: 7 of 12 (58.3%)

QB's between 5,500 and 9,300 passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in the 1st or 2nd round

Record starting Games: 271 and 380 (41.6%)
Bust Rate: 16 of 17 (94.1%)

QB's with less than 5,500 career passing yards in college drafted outside the top 10 but selected in 1st or 2nd round

Record Starting Games: 107 and 60 (64.1%)
Bust Rate: 1 of 2 (50%)


Analysis: Middle level bust rate is nearly 100%, that number is spared thanks to Jay Cutler.



Final Analysis: The only two QB's to avoid all of the high bust rate levels are Mayfield and Allen. Darnold, Rosen, Rudolph all fit in at least one of the larger bust rate groupings. Jackson fits in 2 of them. I know it's far from a sure fire selection guide. I do find some of the bust rate data to be a tad overwhelming to not give it any merit. Last year Mitch fell into the same grouping as Allen, avoiding any major bust categories but in the very low production buckets. Then Watson and Mahomes fell into the same categories as Mayfield with both those QB's also avoiding any of the major bust categories.

***

Mayfield is actually the guy I like the most based on the data. He's part of some good sample sets with neutral rushing yards and high career passing yards.



Allen is also a guy I like based on the data. He's part of the strongest data sets but they aren't as large. He is likely to go very early. Only Aaron Rogers and Brock Osweiler made it out of the top 10 in the grouping of QB's drafted 1st or 2nd round under 5,500 yards. That's just rare to see happen, but logical. These guys have very little production, very high draft status, clearly the measurable's.

I don't like Jackson, he is part of some very negative data sets. His % of rushing yards is over 30%. Only 2 players have been drafted 1st or 2nd round since 2000 with a higher number (Cam and Vince Young). Jackson could win some games, I just don't see him surpassing the bust credentials.

More scared on Darnold, data sets with mid level passing production have almost a 80% bust rate on a large sample of picks. I also don't like the high turnover % at USC.


Rudolph and Rosen get small downgrades as being part of some negative data sets with smaller samples, but they also belong to some positive ones.

*****

I believe production should matter in college. If a guy is 1st or 2nd round talent he should have been successful winning in college. That was my biggest argument for Watson last year. He torched Bama for over 400 yards B2B seasons and brought that program back to top 5 status. Production should count for something, if, and only if, scouts determine that production also comes with a high draft grade. You won't get a high grade unless you have the skills.



I also think the running data could have some merit. It's logical to assume scrambling QB's create more air production because they can scramble. They buy time and create big plays. Will that work as well in the NFL? Likely not. This deludes all forms of production at the college level as far as determining it's ability to carry over. QB's with very poor rushing %'s get sacked a lot in college. Could that speak to issues with pocket awareness? Issues that will get compounded at the next level? Maybe. I don't know.

****

Mike White would fit into the high bust rate stat on Rushing yards (-268). He fits into the +9,300 category in passing production 11,262.

Lauletta would be omitted from this list by not playing for an FBS school.

I don't know how material this information is when looking at all picks. Maybe a future project. A couple other players I did Tyrod Taylor would have fallen in both major bust categories (Rushing% 23.8% and Career Passing Yards, Between 5,500 and 9,300). Russell Wilson would have fell in all positive categories, 10.8% rushing %/Neutral and 11,720 passing yards +9300.

As one poster mentioned a few weeks ago Vince Young's win/loss record under Fisher suggests he might have been the literal GOAT QB if only he'd got a chance to play for someone else.

Wouldn't the fact that he never caught on anywhere else and may also have been literally insane cast some doubt on that theory?

Jeff Fisher-itis over that long means that it is incurable. Thankfully for Keenum and Foles, their low level exposure to Fisher-itis actually hardened and gave them a level of immunity against the virus, as opposed to copping full blown FisherAIDS.

Plenty of potential HOF NFL QBs that just flamed out due to being in the wrong system / bad situation and then just had that STANK on them from then on out.

They practice as little as ever in the NFL and when they do they take certain precautions so half the team isn't on IR by Week 2. QB position probably suffers the most. Can be hard to tell who is legit. So much depends on the 10 other guys on offense + coaching especially for a young QB.

Probably tens of Kurt Warners that just stayed as backups and then found a job doing something else.

I wonder how much of that data regarding running QBs busting is self-confirming, as the NFL has such a bias against running QBs and gives them fewer chances to succeed than pocket passers.

Also, Josh Allen performed poorly in an easy conference. If he was only his highlight plays he'd be a top-5 pick but he's ridiculously inconsistent.