Josh Allen or Saquon Barkley would be face melters of a #1 overall pick.

Might as well post this here too since there are some questions about the draft involved...

2018 QB Free Agency/Draft Guesstimania

Yeah, that's been my comparison too. Sure he's got a big arm and is a great athlete and every once in a while makes a highlight play... but there's a reason his numbers and his teams were so mediocre, just like Locker's.

LOL, I remember reading recently from Josh Norris at Rotoworld (who was a Rams scouting intern back in 2011) that their draft war room broke out into laughter when the Titans selected Locker.

Desperation can make teams go crazy. Sometimes there are zero QBs left on the board that are good value but uh..we still need a young QB.

Darnold or Allen are pure spew in the 1st round.

Still trying to wrap my head around Bryce Love returning for his senior season. Feel like his draft stock will never be higher.

Also teams sometimes disproportionately weigh bowl games when they should probably count less. Darnold's stock shot up after his bowl game last year. Dante Fowler went #3 overall basically because he got three sacks in his bowl game.

Darnold late in the 1st might be OK. He's not one of the guys I'd feel as good about being a franchise guy, though. Allen I wouldn't have taken before day 3 and that was before his dumbass comments today.

Darnold having JUJU of the Steelers two years ago helped.

Would be interested in seeing (modern) day NFL QBs that have similar college #s as Allen and actually turned into a positive NFL starter. Anyone seen anything like that?

Darnold seems a lot closer in talent to Matt Barkley/Mark Sanchez than to Carson Palmer. Probably even below Matt Leinart coming out of USC. At least (Palmer/Leinart) put up Heisman type numbers with the talent they had.

Right! And now we have more evidence that JuJu was in fact talented enough to drive that offense. That reminds me of one theory I'm going to pay closer attention to: If a QB and WR from the same team are both projected as first-round picks, one of them will bust. The idea is that it's just too likely one of them carried the production of the other.

Mike Evans / Johnny Manziel is the most obvious example in recent memory. It's in play for Deshaun Watson / Mike Williams right now. Justin Blackmon / Brandon Weeden would've been another example if Blackmon hadn't drank himself out of the league, considering how absurdly productive he was before that.

Sometimes there are weird examples and it doesn't quite work. (RG3 / Kendall Wright: RG3 was a bust in the end, but he had a great rookie year and his coach mismanaged his knee injury. And Wright similarly was pretty good early and then fizzled out. Jameis Winston / Kelvin Benjamin: This one still looks like it could go in Winston's favor but this time last year it seemed like the opposite might be true.)

Unrelated, another theory I'm looking to dig into more this offseason is the importance of third/fourth down usage. The idea here is simply that teams go to their best and most reliable players in the most crucial situations.

Stats on lower-level QBs aren't readily available, but I haven't found anything like that. Carson Wentz was such a massive outlier for so many reasons that you basically had to trust the scouting on his football acuity to go with his tools. And you know how I feel about most scouting narratives by now.

Haven't made up my mind yet, but I'm also keeping in mind that Darnold is very young and the numbers seem to favor prospects who break out at an earlier age. (Makes sense, as it's probably better for your pro prospects if you're beating college at 19 than if you are at 22.) Darnold, Jackson, and Rosen will all play their entire rookie seasons at age 21. DeShone Kizer was the youngest rookie QB in the league last year, and those three guys will all be younger than him.

Carr/Adams and Teddy/Parker are also in there to an extent. 2's vs 1's in different years. Though people's opinions vary on those players.

Benjamin was a rd 3 pick drafted in rd 1 and produced like a rd 3 one. I guess bust may not be correct term in this theory but vastly overrated sure is. Both adams/carr still vastly overrated though adams wasn't at first; Teddy got injured and Parker never had first round tools--he just had an accurate QB in college that made him look better than he was.

Manziel just ran around and chucked it up to Mike Evans. How the hell did any of us fall for the group think putting him in rd 1. I'm dumb too.

So um...remember when Teddy dropped to 33 a few years ago. Anyone think Lamar is going to fall that far? Or are the Jags going to be stuck having to decide if Josh Allen is worth a project.

I don't think Allen is a Coughlin type anyway and I'm like 90% sure Jags are taking an OL in the 1st round this year and just saying **** it we are getting a top 10 WR back next year and we have weapons galore for whatever QB we are signing in FA. Kirk Cousins gonna Drew Brees it in Jacksonville next year.

Running Back careers are very short
Stanford degree worth a ton

He’s likely going to need a job/career for awhile post-NFL. Seems reasonable.

Jacksonville picks 29, right? I'll be very disappointed if Lamar makes it past 27.

Grunching hard.

Are the Jets more likely to get an established QB or draft one?

If they're looking to draft who do you think they take?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen now.

Super nittery but Teddy went at 32 as the Seahawks traded down with the Vikes to get him.

Sick beat at the time for the Texans, who had 33 (and Clowney at 1) and were set for the bestest draft ever if they got both. They backed into Watson later, but he is still a wait and see (obviously somewhere between middle tier-great, but ACLs are ACLs).

Its probably why it can never be TOO bad to go up a few spots for a QB, particularly if everyone knows you are taking one at X spot, and there is a lot of incentive for teams to trade for X-1 when its on that location.

Having late round ammo is nice, but blowing a third day pick to move up four or five for QB isn't a disaster to avoid that kind of thing happening (similar happened to Philly in wanting Rustle, but I can't remember if Seahawks traded up for him, or if he just went). We all know he went behind a punter though.

Seattle didn't move up to get Rustle. They had just signed their QB of the future (Matt Flynn, age 26 when signed) in free agency a month before the draft and two months after Flynn set Packers records for 480 yards and 6 TD's against the Lolions.

Carr isn't a bust and Adams sure as hell isn't one either.

Deshaun>>>Teddy

2012 Draft was pretty interesting for QBs...

Rnd.	Pick #	NFL team	Player	Pos.	College
1	1	Indianapolis Colts	Andrew Luck*†	QB	Stanford
1	2	Washington Redskins	Robert Griffin III*†	QB	Baylor
1	8	Miami Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill*	QB	Texas A&M
1	22	Cleveland Browns	Brandon Weeden*	QB	Oklahoma State
2	57	Denver Broncos	Brock Osweiler*	QB	Arizona State
3	75	Seattle Seahawks	Russell Wilson*†	QB	Wisconsin
3	88	Philadelphia Eagles	Nick Foles*†	QB	Arizona
4	102	Washington Redskins	Kirk Cousins*†	QB	Michigan State

On a scale of 0-100 (zero being Brady; 100 Leaf/Jamarcus; 50 Carson Palmer) how big of a bust has Luck been thus far?

The concept of being a "bust" is sort of relative to expectations. Luck has been very good, but not the second coming. He's definitely capable of producing at the same level as Palmer was, even in his best seasons, and Palmer had far better supporting casts during his "good" years. Somewhere in the 30-40 range sounds about right.

My friend said Josh Allen is the best QB on the board.

Also that if he's put into a good situation he'll flourish and if not he will crumble.

Discuss.

Some other random things from that 2012 draft...

Some of the better non-QBs in the draft:

Rnd.	Pick #	NFL team	Player	Pos.	College
1	9	Carolina Panthers	Luke Kuechly*†	LB	Boston College
1	10	Buffalo Bills	Stephon Gilmore*†	CB	South Carolina
1	11	Kansas City Chiefs	Dontari Poe*†	DT	Memphis
1	12	Philadelphia Eagles	Fletcher Cox*†	DT	Mississippi State
1	18	San Diego Chargers	Melvin Ingram*†	LB	South Carolina
1	21	New England Patriots	Chandler Jones*†	DE	Syracuse
1	24	Pittsburgh Steelers	David DeCastro*†	G	Stanford
1	25	New England Patriots	Dont'a Hightower*†	LB	Alabama
1	26	Houston Texans	Whitney Mercilus*	DE	Illinois
1	27	Cincinnati Bengals	Kevin Zeitler*	G	Wisconsin
1	28	Green Bay Packers	Nick Perry*	LB	USC
1	29	Minnesota Vikings	Harrison Smith*†	S	Notre Dame
1	31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Doug Martin*†	RB	Boise State
2	39	St. Louis Rams	Janoris Jenkins*†	CB	North Alabama
2	41	Buffalo Bills	Cordy Glenn*	OT	Georgia
2	45	Chicago Bears	Alshon Jeffery*†	WR	South Carolina
2	47	Seattle Seahawks	Bobby Wagner*†	LB	Utah State
2	52	Tennessee Titans	Zach Brown*†	LB	North Carolina
2	58	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Lavonte David*†	LB	Nebraska
2	60	Baltimore Ravens	Kelechi Osemele*†	G	Iowa State
2	62	Green Bay Packers	Casey Hayward*†	CB	Vanderbilt
3	65	St. Louis Rams	Trumaine Johnson*	CB	Montana
3	72	Miami Dolphins	Olivier Vernon	DE	Miami (FL)
3	76	Houston Texans	Brandon Brooks*†	G	Miami (OH)
3	83	Cincinnati Bengals	Mohamed Sanu*	WR	Rutgers
3	92	Indianapolis Colts	T. Y. Hilton*†	WR	Florida International
4	97	Miami Dolphins	Lamar Miller*	RB	Miami (FL)
4*	132	Green Bay Packers	Mike Daniels*†	DT	Iowa
5	137	Denver Broncos	Malik Jackson*†	DE	Tennessee
5	143	Carolina Panthers	Josh Norman*†	CB	Coastal Carolina
5	166	Cincinnati Bengals	Marvin Jones*	WR	California
6	172	Seattle Seahawks	Jeremy Lane*	CB	Northwestern State
6	173	Washington Redskins	Alfred Morris*†	RB	Florida Atlantic
6	177	Arizona Cardinals	Justin Bethel*†	S	Presbyterian
6	188	Denver Broncos	Danny Trevathan*	LB	Kentucky
7	227	Miami Dolphins	Rishard Matthews*	WR	Nevada

Here is what the Jaguars did:

Started at 7th overall pick. Traded 4/101 to Bucs to move up to 5th pick.

1/5 WR Justin Blackmon (played 20 career games)
2/38 DE Andre Branch (played 4 mediocre seasons for Jags before being overpaid by Dolphins to play 2 mediocre seasons there so far)
3/70 P Bryan Anger (played 4 mediocre seasons for Jags, now on Bucs, 26th in league in net average this year)
5/142 LB Brandon Marshall (spent 1 year mostly on Jags practice squad, cut 8/30/13, signed by Broncos, became pretty good in 2014)
6/176 CB Mike Harris (played 2 bad seasons with Jags, then 1 bad season with Giants, then out of league)

In 2010, they traded away their 2012 7th in a deal for Dwight Lowery a couple years earlier, & traded FS Reggie Nelson (still playing at 34, led the league in interceptions in 2015) to the Bengals in return for CB Michael Jones (played 21 games poorly & was out off the team by 2012) & a 7th round pick...

7/228 DT Jeris Pendleton, who was 29 when he was drafted. He recorded 4 tackles with the Jags & 1 with the Colts before his career ended.

Here are some of the notable UDFAs that year:

Original NFL team	Player	Pos.	College
Baltimore Ravens	Justin Tucker*†	K	Texas
Cincinnati Bengals	Vontaze Burfict*†	LB	Arizona State
Cleveland Browns	Tashaun Gipson*†	S	Wyoming
Dallas Cowboys	Cole Beasley*	WR	Southern Methodist University
Dallas Cowboys	Ronald Leary*	G	Memphis
Denver Broncos	Duke Ihenacho*	S	San Jose State
Denver Broncos	Mike Remmers*	OT	Oregon State
Houston Texans	Case Keenum*	QB	Houston
New York Jets	Damon Harrison*	DT	William Penn
Oakland Raiders	Marquette King*	P	Fort Valley State
San Francisco 49ers	Garrett Celek*	TE	Michigan State
St. Louis Rams	Johnny Hekker*†	P	Oregon State
St. Louis Rams	Rodney McLeod*	FS	Virginia
Seattle Seahawks	Jermaine Kearse*	WR	Washington

So what is most mind-boggling? Obviously the Jags taking a punter Bryan Anger, in the 3rd round, over players like Russell Wilson, Olivier Vernon, etc. But not only did they do that, the 2nd & 3rd best punters in net average in the entire NFL this year were in that draft (Hekker & King), & they both went undrafted.

So taking the actual positions the Jags drafted into account, & doing a hindsight draft (obviously these will always look way better than reality, but whatever, it's just for fun):

1/7 LB Luke Kuechly (no need to trade up, actually went 9th, so not a large reach)
2/38 WR Alshon Jeffery (next WR taken at 2/45)
3/70 QB Russell Wilson (yeah, they didn't draft a QB, but I'm pretty sure they should have...maybe they would have if they drafted J.J. Watt, who went 11th, with the 10th pick in the 2011 draft over Blaine Gabbert...)
4/101 DT Mike Daniels (they could also have taken Malik Jackson here, or, even if they had missed on RW last round, they could grab Kirk Cousins here, who went with the next pick...in this scenario they keep this pick instead of trading it to move up)
5/142 CB Josh Norman (taken the very next pick...instead they drafted a bad CB in the 6th)
6/176 S Justin Bethel (special teams ace went the very next pick)
7/228 P Johnny Hekker (undrafted irl, but might as well lock him up here...or 1 of 20 other really good players who went undrafted who might be even more valuable than a punter...)

Your fried is straight tripping.

Josh Allen is very tall and very white and has made 5 throws a game against sub par opposition that look incredible. He's looked awful against decent Defences and there are times when he can't be trusted to hit a barn door from 10 yards

QB coaches and evaluators can look at his good throws and think they can coach him out of the bad stuff

Others point to the fact that nobody with such a bad completion percentage in college has turned into a long term successful NFL QB. Add in the fact that that percentage has been mainly against D2 type talent and he should be way too risky to take at the top of the draft

such a shame Blackmon didn't pan out long term. he was incredible

I'm just going to assume the Bills are going to trade up and then pick Allen.