Quote:
Originally Posted by Seadood228
Joker is drawing stone dead to ever with any MVPs, but seems fairly lockish to end half of his remaining years in the top 10 voting. Yeah I just don't see a guy who may top out at 20/12/9 looking that sexy despite all the wins.
I think the best long-shot odds are Tatum and Mitchell. Tatum because if Kyrie misses time he'll take a big load for a very good team, and Donovan because IMO I think people are sleeping on how good the Jazz project to be. I could see them winning 55+ and getting the #2 seed quite often, which if DM improves could be enough to get him attention as the best player on one of the best teams, even though he won't be.
While some MVPs have scored less, I would guess that next season's MVP will score at least 25 ppg, unless they add top-level offense to DPOY-caliber play or do something as freakish as Westbrook's triple double average. It's going to be hard to have all the top seven guys having injuries or down years, so a dark horse probably needs the combination of scoring 25 ppg and the narrative of leading a 55+ win team.
A non-PG averaging a triple double might be freakish enough, so if Jokic has a slim chance of doing that, then he might have a slim chance of being MVP.
Even if Kyrie misses the entire season, I can't see Tatum being given a big enough role on offense to do that. He might get there by the end of the season, but he will have to build to it.