I'm interested to see how team Capela vs Gobert is going to look. I prefer Capela but it may just be because of how well he looks in Houston's system. KAT and Joker are miles ahead offensively but I think it will be easier to build a team around Clint/Gobert.

I heard this argument from David Locke, and not only do I not agree due to offensive limitations, but given age and injury history it's pretty reasonable to think that even if that's his absolute peak, and it's right this second, it's exactly #10 with no hope of being higher than that (fwiw I could buy that for regular season wins he is #10 on a per possession basis, certainly prefer him to undrafted chucker), and it's in a tier of guys who provide more versatility (i.e. allow you to draft better value later on because you can draft non shooters at other positions which you cannot with Gobert, or Cs which is the deepest position in the league)

Is is actually easier to build a team around the guys who can shoot, since you can only have 1.5ish non shooters on the floor at any given time and Capela/Gobert teams have already started with 1.

sure it is...

at the top of round 2 and round 3 baby, we're gona get some scorers.

with rudy/clint, we nail down an elite defensive player at the most important position. there are a lot of guys out there who can put the ball in the basket

Capela average shot is 2 feet from the rim. I'm a fan but you better run a lot of set alley oops/dunks for him because that's all he does offensively. Capela is also bad from the line. His D is great but you better run some system similar to what Houston has to make him truly effective on O.

these rim run bigs provide spacing in the same way shooters can

I would actually argue moresoe.
a) theyre dragging the center away from the ball. instead of weaker help perimeter defenders
b) if you leave a shooter, youre giving up maybe a 1.5 point 3 attempt. if you leave capela. it's an automatic 2 points

I pm’ed Tings.

The last two seasons Jimmy was assisted on only 35% of his buckets. For comparison, LeBron’s number over that timeframe is 33%. He can be the #1 scoring option on a top team in this imo.

Jimmy is a good player but turns 29 before this season and has a lot of miles on him

True, but he only has ~4 full NBA seasons on his legs.

And he won’t have UNDRAFTED to deal with here.

Great point. I think its underestimated the gravity the elite rim runners provide. Not to mention that the elite shooting bigs often need to be teamed with another high end defender big.

Even the most elite rim runners are dependent on very good passing guards to get them the ball.

I've watched game 7 four times now and Clint just goes wild. So many dunks felt like walk-offs

I think youre understimating how good most NBA guards are at handling and passing the ball

This is obv true but also not really saying anything because the # of legit rim protectors who can space is very small. Ideal selections don’t exist at any position at the back end of the first round. Gobert is also in a different tier defenisvely than someone like Capela— not hating on Capela

edit: but i mean yes obv we need shooting. not a big deal imo, or maybe i should say it will not be hard to do so

also agree about offense vs defense to the extent that individually offensive players are more impactful than defensive players. however that argument mostly applies to tier 1 offensive players, which you're not getting in the bottom half of round 1 here unless you take a big gamble on a young player

if gobert was say 28 instead of 26 we wouldn't have taken him tho

tings is skipped, but i'll use my full hour and pick around 315 if he shows up

Alright -- I'll check back around then too, hopefully we can get a little run to loop back.

(pretty sure ting's bat signal is a pro-Lebron post in the Lebron vs MJ thread)

Is there a spreadsheet of picks?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

Rudy is about a top 15 player and he went 19th. Mitchell is an old sophmore who put up a good but not spectacular season, which was buoyed by Rudy allowing him to take so many bad shots. With Mitchell on/Gobert off they had a .500PD, and they've been beastly for years with Gobert on.

In order for Mitchell to be even remotely taken at near the same spot you have to assume he's going to vault from where he's at now, which is probably top 60ish, all the way to a top 10 player. For a guy who's near 22 and 21 year-old comps that range from very good to decent, I'm not sure I see that jump him.

This has always felt like a solid barometer to me. Mitchell is 22 to begin next season

https://gyazo.com/d461c9b0462424620f2042c5449927f9

Do aging curves apply equally to all player tiers?

Seems like top players don’t get curved as sharply, but maybe that’s just because they’re coming down from a higher level.

Definitely not, player types will be different, I doubt anyone in this thread has accurate aging curves bucketed into different types-- but it's pretty reasonable to look at a curve like the one I provided and think that is matches up extremely well with common sense and anecdotal evidence. Obviously on the backend you'd expect someone who relies on athleticism to age worse, someone who relies on shooting or "guile" to age better

don't think mitchell over gobert is egregious fwiw. maybe not even bad. it's def a gamble, but gotta take some shots somewhere if you aren't in the top third ish of the draft

Well LeBrons curve only goes in the upward direction so no

Also at the risk of sounding like a homer, Jokic was taken too low. In his 3 20,21,22 year old seasons here are his league-wide rankings:

RPM - 9th, 6th, 5th
BPM - 11th, 6th, 5th
VORP - 26th, 9th, 5th
WS48 - 17th, 9th, 12th
PER - 23rd, 8th, 13th

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The numbers have him as at the very least a top 12 player, and the more advanced stats have him closer to 5 than 10.. He's also doughy and could theoretically ascend even higher given more years to build muscle and shed weight.

Like Rudy, he's unfairly dinged for lack of AS appearances (and in his case playoffs), but it's more a function of what the team does when he's NOT on the court. In his 3 years they've had the point differential of a 48, 58, and 57 win team when he's on the court... On teams that won 33, 40, and 46 wins respectively.

If he were doing this with freak athleticism or was a top 10 draft pick we'd all be hearing about him like he's Giannis, Embiid, or AD, three players who's he's statistically outperformed despite being a little younger than each.