Average kind of game. Was alright. Not much of a contest in the second half. Probably wouldn't watch if you already know the score.

Pies gonna take it this year. 6-11 American boy ftw


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bump for the "playoffs" Needs a 2018 thread starter please.

Pies gonna crush.

I think that "form" is underrated in AFL.

This, I think, is very persuasive: http://formladder.com.au/afl

Essendon could well be one of the top 4 teams right now, but, in order, Richmond/Hawthorn/Geelong/Melbourne should be favourites to my mind.

Current Betfair Exchange odds are:
Richmond 2.52
West Coast 7.6
Collingwood 8
Hawthorn 9.6
Melbourne 11.5
Geelong 14.5
Sydney 22
GWS 23


I think there's a lot of value in Hawthorn/Melbourne/Geelong at the moment.

Replaced with current William Hill NV lines

Pies getting no respect on that island nation.

Also, you are a well known Hawthorn homer. Of course you see value.

These teams that have to win an extra game seem quite handicapped. How often does a bottom 4 team win?

Pies are getting plenty of respect, it's just that going to Perth to play West Coast is a tough assignment, that's a big game for them. If they can win that they'll have a relatively easy path into the Grand Final, if they lose (which is likely) it's going to be a lot tougher.

Top four have a big advantage. The top-8 finals system has been in place since 1994 and only two teams outside the top four have ever been champions - 5th-placed Adelaide in 1998 and 7th-placed Western Bulldogs in 2016.

The lines look pretty good. Sydney is clearly too short imo, but I'm not sure what I'd want to bet.

Edit: Just saw the Betfair price on Sydney, that's much more reasonable, the WillHill line is super short. Lot of juice on those lines too, obviously.

I can't understand American odds, but the Betfair exchange odds (which don't include the vig/commission charged) seem to price the bottom four having a combined 25% chance of winning the thing. Now that there's the pre-finals bye (on the weekend just gone) I feel that a lot of the benefit of being in the top four has been dissipated - it wasn't just the double-chance, but the week off if you won in Week 1 of the finals helping significantly.

I mean you still do get a week off. I know what you're saying, that everyone gets a rest now, but I don't agree. Obviously a lot of the fact that 5th-8th place rarely win is down to them just being worse teams usually, and I think the 25% chance of the bottom 4 winning reflects the weakness of the top 4 this year. Richmond are the only actually good team. You look back to say 2013, all of the top 4 teams had a better win-loss record than 2nd-placed West Coast do this year, and all of them had percentages over 130. This year 2nd-4th barely struggled over 120% and 5th-placed Melbourne got a nice looking percentage by running up the score against chuds while going, what, 2-6 against top 8 teams?

Edit: btw, - American odds are hard to read but + ones are easy, you just add 100 and throw a decimal point in there.

Not much value in Hawthorn. Already over-priced. Much better value in the cats

Most valuable 2p2 post to me this year right here. Thanks.

It seems the favorites are thru the first week

Let’s see Hawthorn take down the Eagles

Well I had my fixtures incorrect.

Collingwood hosts Greater Western Sydney, the winner to face Richmond

Hawthorn hosts Melbourne, the winner to face West Coast.

Having wagered on all three teams in the bottom of the bracket, I have at least a hedging interest in the Grand Final.

I expect the Pies to win next week, then get completely destroyed by Richmond.

At the prelim final tonight. Let's go Tigers!

Well that wasn't ideal

Dustin Martin seems dead

Oops

Dusty played like a corpse. The American Mason Cox best on ground there imo. Or maybe Grundy.

Fantastic match for the Pies!!!




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Dusty is over-rated.

He was injured.

New thread?

Is this also why Collingwood is a -150 favorite despite getting throttled by the Eagles recently?

Hold off until the end of the grand final and then go for your life I reckon.

Yeah. Eagles usually suck in Melbourne. Ground will be all Collingwood fans and corporates.

Forecasting heavy rain too which can't be good for the eagles