<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Scoring Summary (Final)
2006 LSU Football
#9 LSU vs #5 Florida (Oct 07, 2006 at Gainesville, Fla.)

LSU (4-2,1-2) vs. Florida (6-0,4-0)
Date: Oct 07, 2006 Site: Gainesville, Fla. Stadium: Ben Hill Griffin
Attendance: 90714

Score by Quarters 1 2 3 4 Score
----------------- -- -- -- -- -----
LSU................. 7 0 0 3 - 10
Florida............. 7 7 9 0 - 23 </pre><hr />

I guess by this logic, Auburn was the best team last year.

Who said anything about logic? This is a college football argument, I can be as arbitrary as I want.

I agree that Florida was better than LSU last year, but here is a better argument for why-

you said "Just because you play in the SEC, you get penalized wrt Nat'l title considerations". I was showing an example of other people saying the same thing (with a different conference), and how stupid they ended up looking. Try to avoid that.

I disagree...the Pac10 is pretty damn good

lol @ Florida not being the best team in college football last year

Some people are really stubborn and ******ed

no....some people aren't results oriented

simple question:
nuetral field 9 days after season
what's the spread between LSU-Florida?



USA beat USSR in hockey in 1980 for the gold on home ice...doesn't mean they were the better team

however, it does mean they are the CHAMPIONS

Actually, beating Finland made them Champions.
Beating the USSR just got them into the championship game.


/nit

They were the better team on that night, and better than LSU on other nights as well. It's impossible to factor in everything that goes in to winning each week so you can't just say LSU is the best team without a sample size either. If anything it is impossible to determine who the best team is, not even a playoff would determine that. We did determine who the Champs are though.

This is unfair to say. There IS a difference between being the best team and being the champions. MT2R is arguing that, on a neutral field, the 2006 LSU team beats the 2006 UF team &gt;50% of the time. It's not an unreasonable argument. (I just happen to disagree.)

He has no real basis other than he "felt" LSU was the best team. If you can't say UF was the best team then you can't say LSU was the best team either.

LSU could choke again this year vs UF &amp; UF still may not be the best team.

On another topic, if Miles goes to Michigan, can we get Sarkisian?

EDIT: or Norm Chow?

Miles is already thought of as a moron, if he goes to Michigan then he is one of the biggest ever.

He played at Michigan. I don't think you can look at that decision objectively like that. Who could blame a Michigan alum from taking that job?

I just couldn't fathom passing up what he has now in order to deal with the Michigan situation. LSU is probably the best job in the country right now. You get to handpick the best athletes from Louisiana with no competition and of course they have no problem recruiting else where in the South for the best athletes. LSU is loaded for the next few years and probably won't have a major down year in the near future. Not to mention you have one of the best fan bases/stadiums around.

I think Michigan offers most of this but I think it's much easier to recruit at LSU and he won't be throwing everything he has set up for a questionable situation.

From a purely rational standpoint, you are of course correct. But his point remains valid.

Yup, lots of potential upside for a Michigan alum who takes that job. Risky, but big if he can pull it off. Think Gators and Spurrier..

No real basis????????

are you for realz???????
I don't say anything without a real basis

last year:
LSU avg 33.7 ppg, 6.63ypp, 21.8 first downs per game, 4.8ypc (35 carries for 166), 252 ypg passing (19 of 28), and allowed 1.5 sacks per game while allowing their opponents 12.6 ppg, 4.13 ypp, 13.8 fdpg, 3.2ypc (31 carries for 97 yards), 146 ypg passing (13 of 28), and sacking them 3.0 times per game.

Let's looks at Florida
29.7 ppg, 6.34ypp, 20.4 fdpg, 4.7 ypc (24 carries for 160), 236 ypg passing (18 of 29), and allowed 1.6 sacks per game
they held their opponents to 13.5 ppg, 4.31 ypp, 15.4 fdpg, 2.7ypc (26 carries for 73), 183 ypg passing (17 of 33), and got 2.4 sacks per game.

From those numbers, LSU has the edge.

I know you probably don't construct models to project outcomes and test those over past data to see what is most relevant. Fortunately, I do. The best method is to look at ypp for v ypp against and add in a turnover correction. As a matter of fact, once ypp is accounted for, all other numbers lose their statistical relevance. YPP explains an uber large percentage of past scores.

However, there is also a schedule weighting.

LSU schedule v Florida schedule
sagarin had it #20 V #8
LSU played 4 top 10 teams on the road!!!!!!!!!
so, stats show an edge to LSU

My model deflates LSU's edge to about 2.4 points.

A correction for turnovers increase LSU's edge slightly as they force opponents into more 3rd and long situations and get more tackles for loss (the 2 statistically valid precursors of causing turnovers).

So, I have LSU -2.5

Then, there is the special teams. LSU was a very mediocre #80 in PhilSteele's ratings last year. Florida was #52. That is about a .5 point difference.

Down to LSU -2


Then, look at the individual matchup.
sure, Florida won the game, but a closer look is in order.
LSU was in control until Russell had a fluke fumble on a snap near the Florida goalline in a very unlikely situation for a turnover. LSU then made a few more turnovers late in the game as they were forced to try and make a comeback.
In the game, Florida had 14 first downs, 3ypc (32 for 97), 191 yards passing on 19 of 28, and gave up 1 sack for 4.8ypp.
LSU had 22 first downs, 3.6ypc (25 for 90), 228 yards passing on 21 of 41, and gave up 1 sack for 4.818181818 ypp.

So, even on the road, LSU put up a performance slightly better than Florida, but had a fluke turnover and the desperation late picks make for a result that obfuscates the underlying fundamentals.

This backs up the LSU -2 rating from the model.

LSU was a better TEAM


stop thinking that I personally am attacking 'your' team. All I do is call them as I see them, and I have a basis for everything.






oh yeah...on another point...my USA over USSR analogy was relevant because Florida over LSU wasn't the title game either.

Does anyone know the extent of McFadden's injury???

My beloved (and 3-0) Cats head down to Fayetteville this week. If we could somehow pull that one off, we then have Florida Atlantic at home, setting up a Thursday night showdown with South Carolina...oh my...I should probably go lay down.

Jeremy Finch out for the year.

Sucks. Hopefully he can bounce back okay.

Using quantitative models to definitively say team a is better than b seems rather silly when the resulting margin is less than a field goal. While these models are interesting and helpful, they fail to account for what happens the other six days of the week. If you give Urban Meyer a month to gameplan for a team he's already faced, I like his chances.

Case in point, were the Chargers really the "best" team last year or were they a team with a young quarterback and a notoriously poor playoff coach who were destined to find a way to lose the big game?

MT2R, thanks for the analysis. You're one of the best posters on this forum &amp; I certainly didn't mean you didn't have a statistical basis because I knew you did. What I meant to say is that the statistics can't be the only factor in determining who the best team is because there are many other factors involved. Florida had the edge in just about every other category other than the stats including coaching, clutch play, psychological preparations &amp; we could argue a million other factors too.

Trying to project outcomes without being able to factor in a lot of things that really matter is fun but certainly not anywhere close to concrete.

Also, I never recall saying you attack UF &amp; if I did I certainly did not mean that. You do a good job trying to be objective.

I saw Bubba Caldwell on campus today, he seemed fine. I didn't see him run but no knee brace, walked fine &amp; could even sit on the back of a scooter.

Just being cautious &amp; he'll be back for Auburn.