1992 USA Dream Team vs. 2012 USA Men's Bball Team - Page 74 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

No. A game that happened two days ago with the exact same teams is more relevant to the line involving said teams than a game that happened 4 years ago which included numerous different players. Did I really just have to explain that?

Of course there is a ton of variance, but there is no way the line would be the same if there was a rematch today. It's really tough to set lines in competitions like the Olympics where there is limited data to draw from so the actual game does indeed matter in this situation.

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08-14-2012 , 04:50 PM

#1828

Fallen Hero

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

go check out how betting lines evolve during a 7 game playoff series. No, one game played a few days before does not have a big effect.

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08-14-2012 , 05:02 PM

#1829

Roger Clemens

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Originally Posted by Fallen Hero

go check out how betting lines evolve during a 7 game playoff series. No, one game played a few days before does not have a big effect.

It does, but probably not the way you think it might.

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08-14-2012 , 05:05 PM

#1830

KingOfFelt

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Originally Posted by Fallen Hero

go check out how betting lines evolve during a 7 game playoff series. No, one game played a few days before does not have a big effect.

*There is a difference between a 7 game series after the same team has played 82+ games prior and the Olympics where you have a very small sample of data to determine how the teams fare in real game situations. Did you follow the lines for other olympic events after qualifiers vs finals? Some of them changed dramatically. And no this isn't because bookies didn't really know the athletes. Extensive research was done on each athlete prior to setting the lines. The only case where the line isn't vetted like crazy are entertainment props and they set like $50 limits on those.

*based on my experience working for a sportsbook.

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08-14-2012 , 05:08 PM

#1831

Fallen Hero

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

There is a difference between a 7 game series after the same team has played 82+ games prior and the Olympics where you have a very small sample of data to determine how the teams fare in real game situations. Did you follow the lines for other olympic events after qualifiers vs finals? Some of them changed dramatically.

fair point that there's a lot less info but a 20 point favorite winning by 7 is not going to produce a dramatic difference

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08-14-2012 , 05:14 PM

#1832

KingOfFelt

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Originally Posted by Fallen Hero

fair point that there's a lot less info but a 20 point favorite winning by 7 is not going to produce a dramatic difference

Sorry for the ninja edit above.

I'd say they would be at most -14.5 more like -12.5 to -13.5 though. 25% isn't an insignificant difference. That's all speculative though.

So I guess I just admitted they did run bad...but not as much as I think some people think.

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08-14-2012 , 05:18 PM

#1833

BossmanJR

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1988 being so good except the USSR game is def noteworthy and the first interesting argument i have seen in 1000 posts or so. gave spain its only loss in group play 97-53, the 102-35 egypt game, winning bronze by 30.

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08-14-2012 , 05:21 PM

#1834

KingOfFelt

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Originally Posted by BossmanJR

Also noteworthy.

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08-14-2012 , 05:30 PM

#1835

Fallen Hero

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

Also noteworthy.

otherwise they would be >>>>> 2012 too, obviously

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08-14-2012 , 05:35 PM

#1836

KingOfFelt

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But they didn't. So they aren't.

But yeah, I do see the validity in that argument. I'm not prepared to analyze '88 ROW teams vs '92 ROW teams which would be necessary I think. Obv '88 team is not better than '12 team though.

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08-14-2012 , 05:35 PM

#1837

Roger Clemens

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Sabonis was overrated. D Rob owned him IIRC.

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08-14-2012 , 08:55 PM

#1838

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

Out of curiosity, why can't it mean that Spain overperformed? It could also mean the bookies don't always set the line properly. But yeah, underperforming in big games certainly helps their cause.

Ok, yes, this too is a possibility.

It helps their case because even while underperforming they won the gold medal game by 7. So, instead of "ugh they were only 7 points better than Spain" we can say "man they were so much better than Spain that even underperforming/running bad/Spain overperforming they still won."

Basically, short answer, because we are poker players.

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08-14-2012 , 08:56 PM

#1839

vhawk01

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

Except when it comes to the Dallas Cowboys.

In seriousness though, you picked out the weakest part of his argument. Would the US still be 20+ point faves against Spain if they were to play Game 2 tomorrow?

Probably not. But they would likely win by 20.

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08-14-2012 , 08:58 PM

#1840

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

Except if they get a few calls their way in the USSR game, they win the gold by 25, their margin of victory is basically identical to DT (and 2012) and you would have a very tough time making an argument that DT>2012>1988.

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08-14-2012 , 09:48 PM

#1841

THAY3R

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Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

Sabonis was overrated. D Rob owned him IIRC.

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08-14-2012 , 11:12 PM

#1842

iggymcfly

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

Sorry for the ninja edit above.

This is way, way off. No way in hell does one game move the line that far, especially not one with that close of a result. I'd expect the line for a rematch to be either 19 or 19.5.

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08-14-2012 , 11:27 PM

#1843

asdfasdf32

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Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

Sabonis was overrated. D Rob owned him IIRC.

Complete with D-Rob pwnage.

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08-15-2012 , 12:49 AM

#1844

KingOfFelt

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly

This is way, way off. No way in hell does one game move the line that far, especially not one with that close of a result. I'd expect the line for a rematch to be either 19 or 19.5.

I disagree considering the limited data available in short competitions. Also considering the game was close the whole way. If I'm not mistaken 7 points was one of the larger gaps for the US the entire game outside the last 5 minutes or so. Again, I'd tend to agree with you if this was an NBA game but I think single games effect the line a lot more in competitions where historical data is lacking.

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08-15-2012 , 01:23 AM

#1845

iggymcfly

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There's limited information available for college football, and accounting for home advantage, Alabama was favored by more over LSU after losing to them than they were the first time. This stuff just doesn't work the way you think it does.

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08-15-2012 , 02:35 AM

#1846

WheelDraw1020

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Originally Posted by asdfasdf32

Complete with D-Rob pwnage.

So cool.

His blood was probably more vodka than blood during all of that footage as well. At least it makes me happy to think so.

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08-15-2012 , 03:29 AM

#1847

KingOfFelt

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly

And what happened in between those games? Would be relevant IMO. By chance did you follow the odds on any other Olympic events between qualification rounds and finals? Some of the odds changed dramatically.

EDIT: I'm looking at the lsu-Bama betting lines and I'm seeing Bama favored by 4 in the first game then 1.5 point dogs in bcs bowl. Not sure where the action fell though so the lines could have been adjusted but those were the preliminary ones.

Last edited by KingOfFelt; 08-15-2012 at 03:42 AM.

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08-15-2012 , 03:40 AM

#1848

iggymcfly

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

And what happened in between those games? Would be relevant IMO.

LSU dominated even more than they had previously.

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Originally Posted by KingOfFelt

By chance did you follow the odds on any other Olympic events between qualification rounds and finals? Some of the odds changed dramatically.

Are you trying to include stuff like track and swimming? That moves a crazy amount based on steam because it's an unfamiliar market with low limits AND oftentimes the qualifying will eliminate people who were a significant factor in the competition. I guarantee that if you look at odds in the knockout rounds of the basketball tournament, they'd be well in line with the odds from pool play.

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08-15-2012 , 04:09 AM

#1849

KingOfFelt

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I just looked up the Spain vs Russia line for both the round robin and semi matches. Despite Russia's win in the rr Spain still maintained pretty much the same line. I'll admit it seems i'm wrong about this. Would have thought the line would have moved more.

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08-15-2012 , 01:05 PM

#1850

Aytumious

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Originally Posted by bottomset

Jordan's game is pretty bad for the international rules, 50-55% 2pt shots are quite bad when there are 45% 3pt shots readily available, and he was pretty bad from 3

he's still Jordan so it's not like he's awful but Lebron is definitely better suited for the international game than Jordan, and Durant is probably better than both

Jordan shot over 40% from the shortened NBA three point line.

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