Quote:
Originally Posted by Aurora Tom
All depends on your definition of the bold. Obviously you have to have a 1.4 index or something to attempt to qualify. But that 1.2 index country club guy can go out and shoot 68 in the local and then come back with 69-70 in the sectional and win a playoff to get in. Or be an alternate. Or just have to do a sectional like this guy did in England. Point is that the same guy can easily get off on the wrong foot and post a high-80s or 90 round. I'm just surprised it hasn't happened more often in the US Open.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booker Wolfbox
I’ll defer to nitbo to calculate the odds of a 1.2 shooting those 3 rounds, especially on a course where those numbers would be good enough to advance. Those odds, not good.
And I thought I read the guy that shot 92 was the 2016 British Amateur champ so he’s not a random scrub.
Not my argument tho so i am out.
That's what I'm saying, a 1.2 on his home course is not going to qualify. It's that simple.
Rough numbers here, a 1.2 is going to average around 3 over per round on his home course which he knows like the back of his hand. Then he would have to go out and shoot 2-4 under or so on a very difficult course, that's 5-7 shots better than his norm under tournament conditions where the course is probably 4-5 shots harder than what he's used to. Then he's going to have to do better than that playing 36 holes on the same day on an even tougher course.
So what would the odds be on a player shooting at least 8 shots better than average 3 rounds in a row?
I've seen scratch players on their home course shoot in the 90's many times in a local qualifier, including a guy I was paired with this year. It's a huge difference.