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Old 03-06-2019, 08:11 AM   #1
avramia
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 94
I offer 50$ for all in simulator

I am looking for a simple script that puts every player all in every hand until the end of the tournament.
Example:
Input:
Player 1: 1000
Player 2: 700
Player 3: 755
Player 4: 612
Number of simulations: 10000
Prize 1st place: 100$
Prize 2nd place: 50$
Prize 3rd place: 25$
Output:
Player 1 finished 1st 29%, 2nd 60%, 3rd 5%, 4th 6%. EV=60.25$
Player 2 finished 1st 14%, 2nd 50%, 3rd 25%, 4th 11%. EV=45.25$
// same for every player.

A simulation means all the hands needed until somebody wins.
Ignore split pots.
Every player has an equal chance of winning a hand (you don't need to actually generate hands and boards, just use probabilities).
Note that in the above example there is the main pot and 2 sidepots and this is very important in case player 1 doesn't win the first hand.
If more players are eliminated simultaneously the one with more chips gets the higher place. In the example if players 1 wins the first hand, player 3 gets 2nd place (50$) and players 2 3rd place (25$).
If 2 players have the same number of chips and are getting eliminated simultaneously they split equally the sum of the 2 prizes and receive the higher place.
These are all normal tournament rules, but I wanted to clarify in case some of you don't know them.

Number of players ( at input) can be between 3 and 8.
Places paid between 2 and 8.
Visuals are not important. It can be just some text like in the example.

If there is already such a program, please let me know, I didn't find anything ( I'll give you a tip).
If you decide to work on this, post below so anybody else will not waste time.
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Old 03-06-2019, 03:51 PM   #2
statmanhal
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,423
Re: I offer 50$ for all in simulator

Assuming the probabilities are ICM based, wouldn't an ICM calculator do the job?
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Old 03-06-2019, 04:24 PM   #3
avramia
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 94
Re: I offer 50$ for all in simulator

The probabilities have nothing to do with ICM.
In the example I gave every player has 25% chance of winning the first hand. If player 4 wins, every other player has 33% chance of winning the sidepot and so on.
An ICM calculator would work only if they allow more than 3 players all in (none of them do) and 100% push and calling ranges for every player until the end (none allow locking future game simulation strategy).

Lets take an extreme example where player 4 has 1 chip instead of 612. If he wins the main pot in the first hand and player 1 wins the sidepot, the guy with 1 chip already has a guaranteed 2nd place (this happens 0.25*0.33= 8.2%). His 1 chip is way more valuable than any ICM algorithm would predict because the other guys are forced all in.

Last edited by avramia; 03-06-2019 at 04:32 PM.
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Old 03-09-2019, 11:09 PM   #4
ABoss
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Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 1
Re: I offer 50$ for all in simulator

Hmm I actually might make this later on, not sure it's really worth the time but it is kind of an interesting idea I must admit.
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Old 03-10-2019, 07:35 PM   #5
Atomic Blimp
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Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 1
Re: I offer 50$ for all in simulator

Interesting problem, I gave it a first try. Neglecting split pot outcomes simplifies the calculations. Here are my results

For 100000 iterations

On average the initial stacksizes:
{'Player1': 1000, 'Player2': 700, 'Player3': 755, 'Player4': 612}
Average finish:
{'Player1': 1.82022, 'Player2': 2.65053, 'Player3': 2.229, 'Player4': 3.30025}
Average cash:
{'Player1': 62.66225, 'Player2': 39.45625, 'Player3': 50.3905, 'Player4': 22.491}

For 1000000 iterations:

On average the initial stacksizes:
{'Player1': 1000, 'Player2': 700, 'Player3': 755, 'Player4': 612}
Average finish:
{'Player1': 1.817661, 'Player2': 2.652605, 'Player3': 2.227348, 'Player4': 3.302386}
Average cash:
{'Player1': 62.7124, 'Player2': 39.410225, 'Player3': 50.454725, 'Player4': 22.42265}


Don't have time atm to rewrite average finishes in your desired format.
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Old 03-11-2019, 01:15 PM   #6
avramia
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 94
Re: I offer 50$ for all in simulator

Wow, nice work!
Average cash (EV) is the most important aspect for me.
I wanted to send you a pm but I guess I can't because your account is new.
Can you add andrei.avramia on skype?
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