I'd appreciate points of view on this hand and my analysis early in a £10 PLO8 Heads Up SNG vs a massively winning reg who tends to play very aggressively both pre and post flop and beats me 8 out of 10 matches :/



PREFLOP
My perception of villain is aggressive and happily opens (guessing 60%PFR. Playing 80% of hands from the button), so attack his limp with a playable hi-lo hand which I'd be more prone to check back vs a more passive opponent I have more chance of outplaying post flop. (Surprised to see a playable hand of J[945] at showdown not open raised by villain). 50/50 equity going into the flop but I’m aware I could get in trouble with my low and view it more as insurance.

FLOP
Villain flops low with double gutshot to 10 and 6. With 40/60 equity I’m not in great shape as I cbet thinking my low, single gutshot to a 5 and two overs is most likely ahead and I’m liking my QT6 as straight blockers. . Villain flats, maybe cautiously with no high/moderate low and better lows possible in my hand as the PFR (53 52 5A 43 4A 3A).

I’m pretty confident villain would have bet turn and river if I had checked (they like to max. the fold equity!) and I would have had a hard time calling the river for ½ the pot after calling the turn and not improving.

TURN
I decide not to bloat the pot any further with just the low out of position, but pot control lines are always difficult vs this villain as they love to bet and not happy lows with 2 are live again. All though the board appears to have got worse for me, equities haven't changed much from 40/60.

RIVER
Villain checking behind on the turn emboldens me that my low is good and I see the K as a great bluffing card to get a flopped pair to fold, maybe even pocket 99+, so I lead out for POT hoping for a fold from villain instead of chopping.

Not sure how I feel about villain calling to half the pot with near a third of his stack in the middle holding a so-so 875 low only – I just happen to have one of the few lows (only 64 6A) he beats.

Maybe betting pot made the bluff/chop avoidance too transparent and half to two-thirds would have looked more like a value bet?

Phewed to hold for the high half of the pot in a criss-cross showdown - I fear villain's pot bashing style may have me tilted?

Why not just play HU cash? You can leave when you are up. You can choose your opponents more precisely, and not worry about blind increases.

Why are you playing against a successful super aggressive reg. trapped in a HU SNG match for more than one incidental accidental match? Let alone 10 matches.

Sit down at a cash HU and reject anyone that is not a fish and/or donkey. You are losing money meanwhile other players are harvesting degen fish and donkeys.

I would still appreciate comments on this hand as I'm desperately trying to improve my game vs competent aggy players, but take your point on game/table/opponent selection.

For the record the site this game was played on has very little to no PLO8 cash action and aggressively check for and ban bum hunters for "anti social practices" and "table blocking".

I don't like raising pre-flop, you have a weak 2way hand that is unlikely to be much ahead (and could be behind) villain's range

C-bet is probably larger than it needs to be, this is a flop where hero can also check some strong hands so checking a weaker one like this is fine

After villain calls you are normally in terrible shape and need to choose between repping a strong hand or starting to give up - I think double barreling here at a low frequency is ok, info on villain style highly relevant

As played river seems like a standard fold, you get scooped most of the time - villain is going to have a better lo a lot unless a3xx lo got counterfeited

Come play cash vs me instead. Much more fun than stupid sngos.

Im not an expert and can't give you much advice about heads up.
My Advice is please use next time the hand converter to post hands. is easier for you and for the ones who read.

This isn’t helping, we can debate the merits of PLO8 cash vs sng heads up elsewhere..start another thread, maybe “Overcoming ridiculous PLO8 HU cash game rake by bum hunting”

Poor choice pre, otherwise fine.

Please keep the comments coming, hope to discuss the consensus of opinions. Sorry for crappy HH, best I can do from Sky Poker

since you are looking for a quantity of opinions:
i don't raise this hand oop vs. an aggro opponent early in the sng (perhaps without a reasonable expectation that my opponent will fold to a raise preflop or to a cbet on the flop there is no situation where I'm raising that hand oop in a husng).

i don't c-bet the flop. again because oop and because the opponent is aggro and because its so early in the tournament.

it can probably be argued that c-bet the flop is +EV but i'm of the belief that tournament strategy can include not taking all +EV actions.

Cheers guys for your input so far.

I agree getting myself out of position with a so-so but playable hand is mistake. The worse state to be in with PLO8 is hitting the board and not knowing where you are, which is exactly what happened in this hand.

I'm going to take some time and think about my cbet sizing here. What I'm trying to achieve needs to be considered. I remember at the time hoping to just shut the hand down there and then - hence the larger size. I figured with no decent high available to the villain and my perceived range containing nutty lows (I raised out of position!) I had a reasonable fold equity. I see that was a wrong assumption.

Totally agree your point about small EV edges ngFTW. In cash game these should be pushed hard, it's ok to ride with the variance when you can reload, but in a SNG damaging your stack isn't worth the small net gain in chips IMHO.

Could I ask you to give your opinion on villains play?

What do you think villains limping range is going to consist of? Looking at this sample of one it is mainly going to consist of middling hi-lo hands, which by the looks of it he will call to see a flop with, so easy value bet for me with strong starting hands. I guess he will merge in nutty hands to trap occasionally, more so if I show willingness to attack his limps.

What do you think of his call on the flop?

More importantly what do you think of his river call?
Have I uncovered a leak here?
If the action goes bet-check/check-bet can I be bombing the river for value every time with decent hi/low knowing that he's calling so-so low only?

I would almost always call river with villain’s hand, especially after you checked turn. I agree with everyone that pre doesn’t seem great, and I don’t really like the river bet as you get scooped a lot here.

Interesting points greyBeard.

Firstly your read that the turn check indicates weakness. I'll often do this with a made low only, to avoid bloating the pot and looking to improve on the river making a high then bet big for value on the river. I'll also do it with the nuts, especially vs an aggy player. So be careful

Second point, you risk getting scooped here also calling with such a marginal low? I concede I risk getting scooped on the river, but had decided to turn my low only into a bluff to avoid chopping. Maybe this is too fancy a play - Working thru Deppen's book at the moment and he clearly states that his view the game is not about making this sort of play. Focus on free-rolling and quartering.

Preflop is concrete as bad in mind now. Looking through my hand histories competent players aren't limping pre to fold and always show up with a playable hand (if on the weaker side ). I'll only be attacking with strong hands now and just take a cheap flop with everything else.