I am not the best, but certainly better than average. Out of about 30 live session, i have lost $ 4 times. I fully expect to win every time but occasionaly it does not happen. I have pin pointed the issue. Usually when I try to maximize profits by capping a nut nut draw, that is when I tend to lose money. I can win a lot of money, but I can also lose a lot of money. That is where my flaw lies. It usually is when I am up money and I'm trying to maximize. If I could just be happy at a 10:20 game with a $500 profit, a 15-30 game with a $700 profit, or 30-60 game at $1,000 profit, I would do much better. But when I'm up I start to cap with nut nut draws and that tends to be my downfall.

I'm also curious about the win rates out there. However this is a very flawed view of thing. Whether you are up or down it should make no difference. If you are nut nut and capping for value keep doing so. You're not playing for individual sessions, you're playing for the long game. But you probably already know this.

Depends a lot on game conditions + rake, 30-60 should be a much tougher game than 10-20 and normally 20-40

If I define an advanced player as the 2nd-3rd best player (i am assuming closer to 2nd at 10/20 closer to 3 above that) at a table I would expect wrs of something like:

1 big bets/hr @10/20
.5 big bets/hr @ 20/40
.25 big bets/hr @ 30/60

It wouldn't be that surprising for 'advanced' players who consistently win .5-1.5big bets/hr at smaller games to actually have a negative win rate by 30/60 due to pros showing up and a much more agressive game dynamic.

For reference I played more than 100 hrs of o8 in vegas this summer between 20-40 and 40-80.

Not capping nut nut draws in a multi way pot would be a massive leak. Seems you lost days draws didn’t make it. At a loose passive game I believe you can average 3 big bets an hour if you play well. In tougher games, probably two, but requires a different style of game play.

10-20 plays same as 20-40, 30 -60, i have not made or lost money at. i find my issue is time. sitting patient for 10-15 hrs to make the right play at the right time without rusging and making mistakes. you simply cant play this game regularly and profit by playing 5hrs or less

So:

$20/hr @10/20
$20/hr @ 20/40
$15/hr @ 30/60


Is that logical? Why would your $/hour go down as you play higher stakes?

In Vegas, the Bellagio 20-40 O/8 game is probably the softest mid-limit game available. During the WSOP, it was the best mid-limit game I can remember playing in a long time. With a half-kill to 30-60, I think it might have been worth $80/hour. It was certainly worth at least $60/hour.

I'm guessing the projections are based on an assumption of better play based on his experience.

I do believe that 80-160 Holdem is softer than 20-40 in most places, but bankrolls can't handle it.

At a game where raising with A-5-Q-10 is profitable for an expert player in early position, as opposed to folding it, rates go way down.

Tight games, I would say raising A-5-Q-10 opeing the pot is correct. Even if you get called with a better hand out of position.

In a loose game where you will get multiple callers regardless, it is a clear fold.

It may sound counter intuitive, but happy to discuss in more depth.

The game where raising it is correct, rates will go way down. The game folding it is correct, rates will go way up.

Where are these places that spread 80-160 Holdem?

East Coast.

Right day, of course. If you are too game selective, though, and image is wrong the loose playing whales (who play solid despite lousy starting cards) will play good against you.

And games will be 75-150. Not 80-160.

I was giving win rates estimates for what I consider to be normal games, not juicy wsop cash games. I do not think an 'advanced' player has much of an edge in a typical 30/60 game. Even so, my estimates were probably a bit too low.

My analysis did not really get focus enough on rake, which can greatly distort true win rates between these stakes. 30/60 you may be paying 15/hr vs almost as much at 20/40. An agressive player could easily be spending more rake an hr playing 10/20, especially with less than full ring.

Looking at the hourly numbers again something like
$20/$60/$40 would probably be a better representation. I am still slightly leery of using those numbers without a more rigoeous definition of what constitutes an advanced player since players are notorious for overestimating their o8 ability.

monikay, be interested how you would play a-Q-10-5

IN a good game and bad game.

If you call or raise in a loose game, leak, if you don't raise in tight game first in, tight game.

I almost responded to you mentioning this exact hand earlier actually. I think it is an open in all games if suited to the ace or (qt). If 3 or 4 of the same suit that makes it worse and I would be ok folding. It is ok as an overlimp but I would never open limp. If a very tight player opens you can situationally fold.

In tournaments we can play this hand very differently.

You would raise hand if first to go in all games?

It is a hand I never limp with unless on button with family pot.

Deliberately didn't mention suits, as raise is based on getting hand heads up or three way.

Fwiw I think 1 bet and going down little by little as you move up is pretty accurate. Atleast ime...

Yes.

Edit: this is assuming 9-handed or less, in a 10-handed game I would be far less likely to advocate a raise from utg.

Like an above poster said, you're thinking about your "downfall" all wrong and doing yourself a massive disservice. You want to play each hand as +EV as possible. Period. That means capping it with nut nut draws. Sure, you're welcoming variance to have a greater affect on your results, which could result in some losing sessions b/c you happened to have lost huge in a few key pots where you had great equity, but who cares if in the aggregate you're making more $.

Keep in mind that you also probably have a cognitive bias leading you to remember bitterly all the times you lost these hands while forgetting a lot of times you won w/ nut nut draw type monsters (b/c you expected to win- "nothing to see here" as far as your mind is concerned).

I'm curious what WR you've observed for yourself at each stake if you wouldn't mind sharing.

I'm following this thread w/ interest as someone who's played mixed on a limited basis for a few years but is starting to take it seriously as it's been more fun for me than my regular PLO. I've been playing in a good 10-20 WHK 15-30 game where I'm pretty sure +2.5BB/hr is possible for the highest WR player. That being said I'm skeptical that's possible in many other O8 games at that stake. For an average winning player, which is the actual question you asked, I'm just speculating but I would think +1 BB/hr seems about right for 8-16 through 15-30. I can't even begin to speculate on larger stakes because I have minimal experience in them as far as straight O8 games are concerned.

Just returned today from a friday and saturday 10-20 full kill game in shreveport. my 3rd time playing this game and my 3rd time winning. however, i am extremely dissapointed that of the 22 total hours of play, i only prifited $400. In all honesty, I fully believe that I could average $1,000 a day at this game. I have yet to make that $1,000 in this particular game. As far as win rate goes, the 5:10, i would say i had a won money almost every time. that is where i cut my teeth and i no longer play. 10-20, i am a bit nittier, and i actually have not lost money this year, but profit is down due to the slightly better players and my hand selection. 15-30 used to play monthly at venetian, slightly nittier than 10-20, players no better, never really had any wins or losses of record. 20-40 at belagio, the 2 times i played, i bought in and cashed out for tge same both times. it does seem like the profitablity goes down as the stakes rise. i dont lose often but dont crush either, it just seems like i grind...

This must be the hundredth time I've posted something to this effect...but a good EP strategy in O8 and stud/8 needs to include limping. These games are about push/pull. Hands aren't all the same and aren't all divided into the binary categories of playable or unplayable. The idea of raising A234 UTG at a FR table almost pains me. I don't switch to raise or fold until lojack...maybe even hijack in the right game types.

Playing a raise/fold game will get you to a certain point. Many "good" players play this way, but the best in the world play a strategy that includes a fair bit of limping (won't name names or anything like that but I promise it's true) (also not claiming I'm among them)

From a theoretical or an exploitive POV?

I'm not sure this comment is supposed to be directed at me? I have limp and overlimp ranges for all positions (though lets stay away from the subject of btn limping as I still have many questions about best practice)


That being said I still think aqt5 should be raised at a much higher frequency than it is limped utg (if at all)

a gto utg limp range 9 handed for me would consist primarily of various combinations of
A2xx
A3xx
Aaxx
kkxx
Before we get into fringier well-connected hi or lo only hands and superior a4/a5
Most of those hands would also raise at some frequency

Thankfully most of the games I play in are not so tough I need to spend too much time running numbers on optimal frequency, I feel like hero should probably not be limping more than 50% of his hands from utg given the overall strength of his range vs the field

What about 5 card omaha big O utg starting hands?

Can you be a little more specific with xx parts in hands like KKxx and AAxx?

xx means any card.

I have no idea what "a gto utg limp range 9 handed for me" means though. GTO is not something that is different for me or for you.

Obviously there are qualifiers but I'm not really interested in doing a full writeup

All I gotta say is I will happily play with any "advanced player" that opens AQT5 & similar hands utg in a FR game.

Get ready to for the 3bets ...


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