My hand was Qc Qd 7h Ac against 10h Kh 8s Js and As 4s 2d 8h.

The board was Jd Qs 10c 10s

at this stage I had a full house, so as I see it an opponent could only have 2 outs against me - a 10 for trips, or 9s for a straight flush. Odds charts show 2 outs on the river is a 4.3% chance.

Yet when I put this into hand replayers they say the opponent had a 5.6% chance.

Obviously the guy hit his 9s to make a straight flush that beat my full house, but why is there a discrepancy between the two outs 4.3% figure and the replayer 5.6% one, as I would think both should be the same?

given the 3 4card hands and the 4card board, 16 cards are know, that leaves 36 possible river cards.
if 2 of those river cards beat your hand then 2/36 is the percentage you lose. 2/36=.0556=5.56%.
this explains the hand replayers.

you don't provide a source for the 4.3% figure, stating just in holdem where you have a 2card hand, on a 4card board with 2 outs to make your hand you have ~4.3% chance to make your hand.
2/46=.043=4.3%.
perhaps this is the explanation.

and the explanation for the discrepancy then is that the "Odds charts" are for holdem and not omaha.


You should pay closer attention to the sources of the information that you rely upon, and perhaps try to have a greater understanding of the information rather than merely acceptance of it.

ngFTW thanks for your reply, my percentages had come from a document I have compiled from lots of different online sources, which may not be accurate, so your warning is well placed. Like a fool I hadn't taken into account the extra cards in play for Omaha, so now see the odds difference on the river, thanks for explaining that.

Now back to the tables to seek more opportunities to lose to two outers!