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When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8 When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8

09-27-2018 , 06:06 PM
I was wondering if anyone has in their mind a rough guideline as to when it's acceptable to do this. It is something I have struggled with since the beginning of my LO8 days. This discussion is for full ring.

Clearly having extra low cards and other backdoor draws makes it more favorable, but for the sake of learning let's consider only the A2 part of it.

Your odds of making the low on a 1-low flop are about 16%, but you're probably only going to win half of the pot, so that puts your equity at around 8%. That would imply you need 11.5 to 1 pot odds odds to draw to your backdoor low. However, when you have an A2 there is a 36% chance someone else has an A2, so roughly 1/3 of the times you make your backdoor low someone else will too (unless they fold the flop... tough to quantify). So based on that, it's more like 14-1. Then you have to factor in how many players are still in the hand and how big your implied odds are which can make the call a bit easier.

I know the only consistent winning player in my regular game won't ever draw to backdoor lows without other draws, while I tend to do it far too often IMO. Maybe he has the right idea?

What do you all think about it?
When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8 Quote
09-27-2018 , 06:16 PM
There's a lot of variables at play but generally you want to go for it more often when you have some kind of backdoor nuts or front door weak draw like a broadway gutshot. And if you have backdoor low counterfeit protection that is all the more reason to go for it.

Also really you would prefer the pot to be multiway and be on the larger side on the flop so a) you're more likely getting the right price and b) when you get to the river there will be guys with 2nd best whatever hands that will pay a bet or two.

Heads up it's usually a bad proposition but there are also factors like not being easy to run over at play plus considerations of how you might play the given texture with other hands.

I can't speak too much on the maths or pot odds side of it but generally I'm looking to be getting at least 8 to 1 on a call and I don't know if that's right. Even if I am getting what I think is the right price I have to also consider does my call seal the action (MCSTA as AdamTheExpert used to say) or are there players behind me who might raise and cost me multiple bets? If MCSTA, call, if there are only one or two players behind and they are on the passive side, more likely call, but if I am second to act and the first guy leads and there's 3+ guys left to act I'm done with the hand. MCSTA is discussed as a concept in the O8 section of SuperSystem 2 (though they don't call it MCSTA). Many posters here will have read that and will recommend it as a guide for general concepts to the game.

But yeah overall there's a lot to think about with this decision and it's tempting to play fast and not think too much when you are getting such good pot odds usually. But take the time to think this one through with the things i talked about and you should do well.

Last edited by LUCIUS VARENUS; 09-27-2018 at 06:24 PM.
When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8 Quote
09-30-2018 , 08:09 PM
There was a thread on this topic 6 months ago:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...er-low-1704682

I came up with the same 14 to 1 answer that you did, so I think your assumptions and calculations are on point.
When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8 Quote
10-06-2018 , 05:06 AM
almost always its a fold . when you can consider it is when it can make the winning high as well.
and as lucius mentioned you need to be aware if the action is going to be closed out or you get to waste your bet.
When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8 Quote
10-06-2018 , 06:39 PM
I think looking for a formula-based approach as described in op is generally wrong. The pre-flop action and villain characteristics are super important. I would say, that when in doubt, seeing the turn is normally correct, but this also assumes proper hand selection and aggression pre-flop.
When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8 Quote
01-07-2019 , 06:14 PM
Here's a pretty dirty guideline to follow:

If you call 2 bets preflop & there are >4 players in the pot & you conceivably can make some kind of high (trips is always a yes), DON'T fold post flop for 1 bet.

(Agreeing with all of the other commenters) There are obviously going to be plenty of live happenings that make this situation more informed.

In a case where you're IP and everyone checks to you (yes I understand that's not the original question), I give you to go-ahead to bet a 2 high 1 low flop. Those are ALWAYS good bluff opportunities.
When to draw to a backdoor nut low in LO8 Quote

      
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