Quote:
Originally Posted by manndl
is this a fold?
[hand_history]Poker Stars, $3.16 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 8 Players
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#13565452
BB: 1,570 (52.3 bb)
UTG+2: 1,430 (47.7 bb)
MP1: 1,470 (49 bb)
MP2: 1,410 (47 bb)
MP3: 1,450 (48.3 bb)
Hero (CO): 1,470 (49 bb)
BTN: 1,660 (55.3 bb)
SB: 3,040 (101.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A
K
K
2
2 folds, MP2 calls 30,
MP3 folds,
Hero raises to 84, 2 folds, BB calls 54, MP2 calls 54
Flop: (267) 6
7
K
(3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks,
Hero bets 146, BB calls 146, MP2 calls 146
Turn: (705) 5
(3 players)
BB bets 1,340 and is all-in,
MP2 folds, Hero calls right
Never folding here. This is a $3.50 where players are just bad. 89xx is a decent part of his range, as I see a lot of bad players flatting with these hands thinking they have decent equity (similar to what they would have to PLO).
I also see him doing this with many inferior A2 hands which we are in great shape against. Of his A2 hands, we're only afraid of 34, 48 and 89 and winning against two spades.
I don't wanna run a simulation here because there ranges are so wild, but I'd estimate our equity to be close to 60% here. A good way to find out how bad of a shape you're in is by putting in the best possible hand your opponent can have and see how much your equity is (see below):
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
3s4sAs2s | 66.25% | 4 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 36 |
KhKc2cAd | 33.75% | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 36 |