Quote:
Originally Posted by thomasson
I would call it definitely. I think, in HU, this hand does very well.
zuri1886: according to propokertools, even against (A2)(K3) we have 43,3% equity.
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
As Kc Qc 3d | 43.29% | 205,000 | 348,573 | 388,617 | 0 | 199,480 |
Ah 2h Ks 3s | 56.71% | 224,696 | 348,818 | 388,617 | 378,944 | 199,480 |
But against hands A23H - we are already ahead. Mainly flip, but our equity vs those hands slightly better. And hands like A2TJ or A2HH where H is not a king, we are always ahead. And a hand like A2JJ 49-51. So the only hand we need to be afraid of, is AAxx.
Yea and AA is the only thing i can put him on without reads. No way he would risk busting to win so little chips if the Ultra Shortstack will be in the BB the very next hand.
My point here is: even if we are fliping, yes even if we have 55%, do we really want to risk calling of more then half our stack in this situation?
I know a lot of poker players are very optimistic (
profitable games
) BUT: what if we lose anyway?
we would put ourselves in a bad spot. If we get dealt Q933 the very next hand after losing this one and the button folds, what do we do?
give the BB a walk? That would put us in serious danger winning only $54 instead of at least $81 or $108.
Nothing really happens if we fold. we are still easily chip leader and just passed the BBto the shortstack. If we fold and the button folds the next hand we can easy shove against the shortie since even if we lose there won't be too much damage ( u could even say, it's not too bad because we can now push them both around and they might wait each other out to bust ).
Every scenario i think of if we call and lose seems terrible. Every scenario if we fold seems fine to me. Of course this is turbo and usually these hands 3 handed are good, but in this particular situation, icm just comes into play.
Say we call and win:
$108 pretty damn sure, but u never know right.
I put the number ( icm counts ) to like $105 that we should win.
say we call and lose:
the other guy is a massive chip leader so just going after the % we have the biggest chance to get $81 and a little smaller chance to get $54, but the smalles chance to get $108. So our % is somewhere between 81-54, closer to 81 but if i have to pick a number say we are at about $72.
Say we fold:
We are still in the chip lead and the shortstack will probably go all in with any 4 from the BB, since the guy with 2nd in chips just got some more. So he is likely to drop out the very next hand. but just look at it right after we fold and simply keep in mind that $54 is not really an option anyway.
We are somewhere between $108 and $81 way closer to $108, so let's pick $99 ( according to the chips we have and the chips we have in play ).
so we have $105, $99 or $72
$105+$72/2 = $88.5 if we call and say we have a flip ( thats why /2 )
OR $99 if we fold.
don't blame me for all the numbers since i just counted them out in my head in 1 min, but i guess they should be close.
so if someone is saying: " GO FOR IT ", he should mean fold since we expect to win more money that way
I hope even after a long grind i could at least show my point of view.
Oh: and plz don't call me a nit for folding a hand that looks so good 3 handed. As i said: in a 50-30-20 structure its and easy call, since we need to go for the win and so does the SB who will have a wider shoving range because of that.
good night all