this hand really sums it up how i am running lately.

We can't assume a top 10% hand wasn't already folded due to ICM.

Even if we do assume that any top 10% hand would be played, I believe the conditional (Bayesian?) probability would still put the odds of villain holding such a hand at significantly less than 37%.

so like the Nr. 1 in profit and the guy with the highest average win/tourn. in the 3.50s are complaining about a runbad? sigh sick life..

P.S. im currently at over -80% roi in my shot at 7s being bellow EV for an unreal amount. imho all regs are running pretty damn good lately and since there is about 15/18 of the them in any sng, i wonder if i should switch to holdem..

Not sure where to post this, but after a few petitioning posts, stars has rolled out a NL08 45 man Turbo SNG to trial the demand of these games. Hope we can all make an effort to join these and spread the word out to others. If this goes well, there may be 7 and 15 dollar games as well!

Also, if anyone has access to the lobby can post the payouts, that would be appreciated!

im in allready

1st: 44.11
2nd: 30.57
3rd: 23.46
4th: 17.77
5th: 12.79
6th: 8.53
7th: 4.97

how come they only have 3.50s? 1.50s would be cool as well for me at least

How many races/flips? What's it in bb/100?

Thanks! Did any of them run yet?

Stars' thought process is to not cannibalize the non-turbo $1 45. I think if this performs well, there should definitely be a 1.50, 7.00 and possibly 15.

Going to be some interesting spots since you are normally hu when you have 8k-12k chips. 7500 is the ft avg!

yup. got sucked out on the first bubble quite brutally. never change a running system in whatever format

It's fairly stupid to say the least. No one cares about the non turbo ones really. I mean they run very rarely and the turbos seems to fill pretty fast even though most ppl won't even know about them yet.

Stars needs to realize that grinders want to be grinding a certain format and don't want to mix formats. I have troubles mixing them in when 24 tabling 18man turbos for example because they need your strategy to be fairly different. Well i hope they add them so we can 24 table 45man in a short while.

So several have run since this morning?

For the above statement to be true, either NL Holdem has to be a solved game (where programmers have perfected SNG bits) or we have to pay people to register and play.

Or perhaps, something remarkable will happen over the next few years...

this^^

Imo the cEV doesn't work properly for o8. But well i'm 100k under cEV today in 64 Sng's and down 240 in Sng's and down like another 100 in mtt's . But feel good about my game and need to play a bit more to reach platinum this month.

This should have said bots. Apparently my phone does not have the word bots in its dictionary (lol)?

blech

21st in 5r after c/r all-in flop of KT8dd w/ AQTT and bust vs. AK26ddd

bubble and bust SNGs with AQQ5 vs AT55 and shoved set on flop vs. gutshot who called

no offense taken, none whatsoever.

Sorry, i didn't respond sooner, I just don't look at this thread very often.

I arrived at the 37% figure using the PQL function of PPT. the function i used was "inrange" which allows you to specify how often specific cards or specific ranges occur within a specific range. here, that is how often does 10% occur within random.

here's the approx. PQL query i used:
select
histogram(handshaving(inrange,'10%')),
count(handshaving(inrange,'10%')=1),
count(handshaving(inrange,'10%')>=1),
count(inrange(p5,'10%'))
from game='omaha8',
hero='4sQhKd9h', p2='*', p3='*', p4='*', p5='*'

so with knowledge of hero's cards and assigning a random range for each of the villian's hands, we can see a graph of how often a top 10% hand is dealt,
how often exactly 1 player is dealt a top 10% hand, how often more then 1 player is dealt a top 10% hand, and i threw in how often 1 specific player is dealt a top 10% hand.

the results are:
exactly 1 player is dealt a top 10% 34%
more than 1 player is dealt a top 10% 38.6%
and the specific player is dealt a top 10% 10.8% of the time.

i used 37% because that was either the answer for more then 1 player then or i ran it such that i excluded the rare times when 3 or all 4 have top 10% which does looks to be about 1%.

unfortunately i can't supply the Math.

i think its true we can't 'know' that one of the players that acted earlier didn't fold the 'dealt top 10% hand', but i did include this possibility when i posted as an assumption that they wouldn't, and the sim data and using 37% does allow for the occasional fold as the 37% represents 1 or 2 players being dealt a top 10% hand.

ye 7 and 15 would be well good. i gonna try the 3.50 now. wil prolly win coz i runnin so good

Lets simplify your O8 example and make it a Holdem one.

select
histogram(handshaving(inrange,'A')),
count(handshaving(inrange,'A')=1),
count(handshaving(inrange,'A')>=1),
count(inrange(p5,'A'))
from game='holdem',
hero='ks7d', p2='*', p3='*', p4='*', p5='*'

If your theory would be true BB would have >40% of the time an ace if p2-p4 have non.
The Chance of getting an ace in HE is (4/52)*(3/51)+ (4/52)*(48/51) + (48/52)*(4/51) = 14.93%

If 4 Players before you don't have an ace its:
(4/44)*(3/43)+(4/44)*(40/43)+(40/44)*(4/43) = 17.54%

As you see there is some kind of card removal effect but nowhere near
what you implied. IMO the card removal effect in O8 would be even lower
so max 10.5-11.5%.

first time in 4 days that i didnt lose
almost forgot how that feels like.

Decided to tilt reg for a 15 after running like aids all day. Final table after 11 minutes never seen such crazy play!

gotta stop playing today.
bob is running hotter than the sun and is in all my s&gs,
guess playing ``batman city``is less expansive.

any interest in a 1 week 18 man profit bet?

preferably multiple people but 1 on 1 would be fine.

I dont know if either of these players post on here but if zur1978 or dimae want to challenge me i would give either of them 3-1

the bet size does not have to be big Im just looking for some motivation to put in a heavy volume week.

I would be up for a ROI one over say 200 games for $50?

I'm Duncanmalloy

should have folded,that hand is cursed on stars

snap fold... icm dude

Ouch Nice reasoning btw

I dont know Im too big of a fish to win ROI bets

I love this sits =D

I hope still running like that.... lol... (In my dreams)

Seriously.... are a very good SNG for players than have a little Edge.... i see an amazing fish player there.... really lol...calls all-in with hand like 888J...Obv have relation with the low buy-in.

03/04/12 11:19:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 16 $0.00
03/04/12 7:09:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 11 $0.00
03/04/12 1:04:00 AM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 1 $44.11
03/02/12 10:08:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 15 $0.00
03/02/12 7:11:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 1 $44.11
03/01/12 6:23:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 20 $0.00
02/29/12 5:09:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 27 $0.00
02/25/12 4:06:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 2 $30.57
02/25/12 3:36:00 PM $3.50 NL Omaha Hi/Lo [45 Players, Turbo] $3.16+$0.34 45 6 $8.53