5 handed in $11 plo8 turbo on Ignition...

5th-$42
4th-$70
3rd-$98
2nd-$125
1st-$188

Blinds 4k/8k

Stacks
UTG 13K(Sitting out last hour)
UTG +1 Hero 55k
Button-13K
Small Blind 18k with 4k in small blind.
Big Blind 260K...(gambling and godmoding... busted other big stack defending KQ93 to 3X open then beating AA2 on J93 flop

folds to hero who looks down AA78

what should I do?

You should definately work more with Odds Oracle, that's the first thing. Second thing is to raise 50% of your stack and gii on any flop.

Fold range imo

You have double-suited aces in an unopened pot with 7BBs and aren't sure what to do?? staaaaahp

This.

And also obviously all the "bb is god-moding. beating AA with KQ93" type nonsense is basically just irrelevant. And clearly irrational, illogical thinking, if you're actually serious about that and letting it affect you.

Interested to see other hands recommended to be in his fold range?

By "fold range" I meant folding the whole range. I'm assuming BB is making a lot of mistakes that hurt us.

I appreciate the feedback... when a 3 time bracelet winner berates you, better pay attention .

Mentioning his KQ93 defend more to show my read was that I didn't have a ton of fold equity pre and I would have to survive a showdown.. not he's running hot better stay away...

My instincts were the same as Amok assuming he is not trolling... can't give all the shorties an ICM gift and take a 70/30 proposition vs maniac...

In game I sigh folded and ended up outchipped 290-20k and predictably ending in second...

Guess I gotta gamble more in these type of spots late.. Thanks Guys.

If I were you I'd just wait until someone gives ICM-analysis and ignore all the intuitive answers (this includes mine of course).

Hero Value is correct in that you pay too much attention to irrelevant things, like bracelets.

Hero icm right now = 116.93
Hero icm after folding = 117.95 (assuming everyone folds)
Hero icm after folding but SB scoops = 112.94

Hero icm after gii and everyone folds assuming 55% scoop/20% get scooped/25% split against a random hand:
= 55%*136.69 + 20%*42 + 25%*118.79 = 113.28

So worst case folding seems like about -$4 but most likely +$1; gii is about -$3 but could be as high as +$1 if Hero scoops SB and BB. NG can probably clean this up a bit.

Personally I’m folding my whole range here because folding seems like at least +$28 with someone sitting out.

I think it's well known that ICM doesn't account for blind levels, and so doesn't work on the table with player stacks as short as here 2-3BB.

I mean, yeah. I get all the tourney considerations, but damn. I would not fold here. Guess this is why I don't play them often, if at all these days.

Eh, it seemed like a happy medium between FGS and “I gots aces!” (which also seems to be ignoring the short stacks).

I get it. I thought HV was a bit judgmental about the relevance of your read, but then he's the champ.

It's a tricky spot given the stack sizes. I would normally be in the "shove ldo" camp, but it probably actually makes sense to fold here.

Given the stack sizes, second is a very satisfactory result here. The ratio of your stack to CL's was less than the ratio of each of the short stacks to yours, and you finished ahead of all of the short stacks. Of course, you aren't going to finish first much when you fold in these spots, so I guess it depends on your goal.

I cant help with icm calcs but I do know its way closer than most are realising.

The guy UTG is going to be blinded out in just over 1 orbit so I'm thinking an ICM calc would indicate folding whole range until then.

ICM know nothing about "blinded out" and so on. Only stacks and order of betting. We should use something like FGS - Future Game Simulation for this.

Meanwhile despite ICM doesn't work for this situation I made ICM Nash equilibrium calculation for Holdem. As I understand the first post there is no fold equity at all, and BB would call anybody's push with any four without looking to Nash . So to simulate this situation I put him in the first position and plan to look only to his "push" path of the solution tree.

http://www.holdemresources.net/nashi...bb=8000&ante=0

We see that Chip Leader should push any hand here and we (after sitout folds) should call only QQ+ in Holdem. IMHO it would mean we should fold any hand, as there is no such hands in O8 as QQ+ in holdem with 80%+ equity vs random. Our hand is only 68% favorite as it was stated in greybeard33 post.

I realize O8 ranges % should be quite different from holdem due to the often split bank situation, but here with our hand we have 20% probability to be scooped, so IMHO it is Fold, especially as we know about soon blinded out, and Nash doesn't know.

i understand how preflop hand equities run so close hu in o8.... Does that mean in tourneys and SnGs we are more looking at our fold equity, and that would influence our choices greatly?

Solid post.

seems like it is very close and folding can't be too bad... if it is at all.

One thing I was thinking about.. if folding allows me to make decisions on the next hands 100% of the time... while jamming, 25% of the time that will be my last decision of the tournament.. assuming I have an edge vs the field, shouldn't I err on the side of making sure I can realize my edge on the next hand..

If this was a $1000 tournament with 4 HeroValues.. I should probably just jam this because they'll make better decisions than me in future hands... but in a $10 tournament if both options are about equal.. I should probably opt for the choice that allows me the most future decision equity..

Just for curiosity:
I repeat the same calculation in Icmizer with FGS on. Result in Holdem is "call with AA only". With AA we have Fold EV = 23,45% Call EV = 24,30% diff is +0,85%

http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#hPFkvH
This link works only in IE with Silverlight installed.

By calling with trash hand earlier big stack "breaks the rules" of the game essentially stealing first to act position for every hand in ICM situation. Normally in these spots Hero should open shove tight range and villains should act accordingly; mainly big stack shouldn't call Hero much, because he would get so much chipEV being able to open most pots and applying ICM pressure to all opponents.

While no hand in PLO8 is as good as QQ is in holdem, there is additional element in plo8, that is not in holdem, which is that all these 2bb stacks are going to have approximately 70% chance of surviving their first all in confrontation, which significantly changes the future game prospects when compared to holdem (and we also know from holdem that future game recommends looser play than ICM). Thus I would not fold top 5% or so in this spot, including not folding this hand. I'm pretty sure that at least AA3 and AA4+nutfd are clear shoves. It is important to note that in situations like this big stack benefits from fishy image and there is some metagame considerations for small repetitive online fields.

Also noteworthy that villain called pre with poor hand earlier, which is not a proof that villain always gets it in with such hand. Villain might fold some percentage preflop and is also likely to fold many hands on many flops, which means some losses won't be realized. Also Hero has many hands which have similar likelihood to survive allin as QQ has calling Texas holdem all-in, and survival is the main concern in ICM situations.

Also it doesn't properly take into account the additional times that there is a split-pot between hero and CL. Even if hero only gets 1/4, it's still fairly good ICM value remaining. Nor does it include other small future benefits to image and such, when raising here. And a bit unlucky for us - they all have just enough for at least two more orbits, unless blinds are about to go up. We certainly don't have 2nd (or even 3rd) locked up by shutting down here anyway.

Its a turbo so blinds will be going up next couple of hands.... key fact is blinded out stack will survive another orbit.. so the other shorties are somewhat handicapped also...

I have played with Lotus enough to know he would never fold this in a million years..... meh who knows hes prolly right

doubt many would bother folding either....ud have to be super nitty.