It's a loose 10-handed game, with a two-chip SB that everyone defends liberally; for the past couple of hours, we've had an average of 7 players seeing each flop, often for at least one raise. Four players limp. I raise on the button with A24Q. Both blinds call, and all the limpers call, so we're 7-way to the flop, and the pot is 14 small bets.

The flop comes JT3. The small blind checks. The big blind bets (I put him on a set, top two, or a big wrap). All the limpers call. I call with my gutshot Broadway draw and backdoor nut-low and nut-flush draws. The small blind calls, so we're 7-way to the turn, and the pot is now 10 big bets (21 small bets minus the drop).

The turn is the 6. This is a fantastic card for me, as it now gives me an uncounterfeitable nut-low draw, the nut-flush draw, and a gutshot draw to a 6-high straight (which would be the second nuts), along with the gutshot Broadway draw I had on the flop. The small blind checks. The big blind bets (I put him on the same range, though I now think a set is more likely; if he's still betting a big wrap into this many callers, he may have picked up a [non-nut] flush draw on the turn).

Three of the four limpers between the bettor and me call (so only one folds). I can't get a read on what the SB intends to do. My question is, should I (or would you) raise in this spot?

I've counted my outs and tried to calculate (or estimate) the number of times I'm splitting the pot or getting quartered when certain cards come. But there are too many variables for me to solve this problem precisely. Will the SB call a single bet but fold to my raise? Will the BB just call my raise (even with top set, for fear of all the potential straight and flush cards that might come on the river), or will he reraise? And if he reraises, will that get one or more of the intervening players to fold?

My rough estimate (not based on simulation tools) is that my equity in this spot is between 25% and 30%. So as long as I get 3 or more callers, I'd like to put as many bets in on the turn as I can.

What do I think the other callers have in this spot? Straight draws, flush draws (drawing dead. obviously), low draws (some drawing dead or perhaps as slim as 3 outs for a quarter of the pot), and lower sets or two pair than the flop bettor (drawing dead or extremely slim). With 7 players seeing nearly every flop, they're not all playing premium hands. The blinds could be defending the top 70% of their starting hands. One or two other players could be playing 90% of their starting hands, either because they're drunk or on tilt or simply don't understand the game and play nearly everything. And once the pot has been raised 7 ways, people are inclined to continue drawing very slim if not completely dead; for example, someone with 29TK—a pair of Tens and a gutshot draw to a King-high straight and a King-high flush draw—might call the turn having 0 equity. It's that kind of game.

Sometimes when I do raise the turn in this spot, the river misses me completely. Let's say the board pairs or a non-spade 9 or Q comes on the river. Someone bets, one or two players call, but I fold. People look at me like I'm crazy. Sometimes they even ask, how could you raise the turn and fold the river? But I never explain; I just shrug and grin.

Sometimes I make my Broadway straight. I bet or raise the river, and when people see my hand at showdown, they focus only on the AQ portion and, again, see me as a maniac for having raised a gutshot draw on the come.

I don't mind if people think I'm an idiot or a maniac; it makes it harder for them to put me on a hand when I raise the turn with a set or better, and it makes it more likely that they'll call me with worse hands when I bet the river for value. So even if raising the turn on the come is slightly negative EV for this particular hand, I think it can still be positive EV for the session as a whole—and for future sessions with this group of players.

One other thought: I used to get really frustrated in this spot when I missed, and I regularly see other players get tilted when they miss their huge multiway draws. But I understand now that even when I have 27 outs to make the nut low, the nut flush, and/or the nut straight, I still have 17 outs to miss completely (12 cards that pair the board, 3 non-spade 9s, and 2 non-spade Queens ). So I try very hard not to get attached to the outcome of any individual hand. If raising on the come in this spot is positive EV, then it's the right thing to do regardless of what card happens to fall on the river this particular time.

Your thoughts?

Technically the 9 could make someone a straight flush but regardless you have enough outs/equity that I would go ahead and raise. Since you don't even have a made hand at this point, getting players to fold isn't the worst outcome, and you'd ideally like to get some of the low hands out that you'll quarter (or worse) with. However, it seems unlikely anyone will fold here anyway as they all probably think they have pot odds to call. And of course they'll probably pay you off if you hit on the river since "the pot is too big to fold" so even if the BB doesn't reraise you'll still be able to get more money in on the river.

Definitely raise! If the three limpers and the bettor call your raise, you're getting 4 to 1 (or 8 to 2). Odds against a spade or a king are only 32 to 12 (or 8 to 3). And that's not even bothering with your (3*4+3*3=21) low outs. We probably shouldn't count J or 3 as outs, since they also pair the board. So instead of 32 to 12, 34 to 10 (or 32 to 10 if we don't count them one way or the other). Anyhow, so long as you're getting 4 to 1 fresh money odds, you're ahead, odds wise.

You started the round with 6 opponents and you still have 5 opponents. You'd have to lose 2 more opponents to have the raise be unfavorable (and that's not even considering your 21/44 low outs)... not impossible, but worth the chance.

OK. (I don't use equities, but I can see it).

Sounds very juicy.

Sounds right.

Agreed.

Buzz

My first instinct is to raise. So I do that. And with there being several players between the bettor and yourself already? Why not raise on your super duper + uncounterfeitable draw? Besides, there's A LOT of stuff out there, and there is a potential scoop for someone, which usually tends to tie players to call and go for the whole enchilada. The good news for you, is that you're probably drawing amongst the cleanest and the strongest of all those loosely-goosey players.

I live for these spots!

of all the spots you were in this session, this is the toughest and most post-worthy? seems like this is always the case for some reason on this forum. somebody with nut-nut-nut everything and not knowing what to do. go here. http://www.propokertools.com/simulations

I think it's worth considering that if a lot of people are still seeing the river, it is likely that a lot of spades are in their hands, so you don't have as many live outs for your flush as you are counting on.

Why would you not consider the low outs? Math is math.

At the time, I felt the high outs alone were sufficient. But feel free to add the low outs, if you like.

What does that mean?

And oranges are oranges.

(So what?)

Buzz

I don't have anything yet. Worst-case scenario, the small blind folds, the big blind reraises, and one or both of the two intervening callers now fold. So I'm initiating action when I'm heads-up or three-way without a made hand and with a good chance of getting quartered on the low.

This situation doesn't come up often—about once every other session for me—but I feel like it's a close decision between calling and raising, and I was genuinely curious to see what others thought.

Thanks for the link.

Good point. I once made the mistake of raising in this spot with a non-nut flush draw. The low came, and I didn't have to split it with anyone. But another player showed the nut flush draw, which meant I had a lot less equity than I had hoped—and probably not enough to raise on the come.

Yes, me too. In recent memory, a couple of times I've missed completely, a couple of times a low card came and I got half or a quarter of the pot, and twice my Broadway card has come and I've scooped. I like making the big straight because nobody puts me on that, so I get paid off in a couple of spots.