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Old 02-19-2017, 09:43 PM   #1
LarryHoover
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Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

First off, what do we do pre? It's not like our hand is great but we're getting almost 5-1 on a call with a double suited hand but obv just enough to get us in trouble both ways. We are so only on 14ish BB so is it best to just fold?

[converted_hand][hand_history]WPN, 1,000/2,000 blinds, 200 ante Pot Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37642795

Hero (BB): 28,700 (14.4 bb)
MP1: 59,450 (29.7 bb)
MP2: 37,125 (18.6 bb)
MP3: 25,810 (12.9 bb)
CO: 14,991 (7.5 bb)
BTN: 48,788 (24.4 bb)
SB: 6,950 (3.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q 3 5 7
MP1 raises to 4,000, 3 folds, BTN calls 4,000, SB folds, Hero calls 2,000

Flop: (14,400) 8 J 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets 4,800, BTN folds, Hero ??n
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Old 02-19-2017, 09:45 PM   #2
LarryHoover
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

i don't really see much merit in raising. Do we call and hope to fade a turm bomb?
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Old 02-19-2017, 10:16 PM   #3
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

That was close to the bubble with 18 players paid iirc, so prob call to see a flop and usually folding that flop. There were quite a few small stacks and bubble burst pretty quickly, so there isn't really any reason to gamble with a flop like that.

I ended up flipping when the pay jumped at 15 and lost
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Old 02-19-2017, 10:18 PM   #4
LarryHoover
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

there was still around 30 left at the time. yes they were busting fast though
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Old 02-19-2017, 10:20 PM   #5
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

with like 22-25 left i think i fold pre but with 30 or 31 i felt like i wasn't comfrtable enough to worry about icm and get ITM but i could be wrong.

first time in that tournament, what a crapshoot
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Old 02-19-2017, 10:33 PM   #6
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

it got down to 13 or 14 left with blinds only 1.5/3k, late reg in that goes deep so the field is packed with small stacks who drop quick with only 5bb or so.
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Old 02-19-2017, 10:36 PM   #7
LarryHoover
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

fair enough. I don't play enough tourneys to know when i should be factoring ICM into my decision or when to make decisions that give me the best shot of winning.
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Old 02-19-2017, 11:00 PM   #8
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

clear fold pre
post u cant really fold flop

Last edited by billygstar; 02-19-2017 at 11:00 PM. Reason: obv....
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Old 02-19-2017, 11:49 PM   #9
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
3d5c7cqd28.70% 92,744197,0997,63566,7399,505
20%35.69% 124,029190,59818,493105,82442,289
20%35.61% 123,896190,08718,490105,27642,247

Pretty easy call pre since we have a bit of chips to spare...unless we have some really solid reads on the others. Even if we don't get to realize our full equity(which we won't here obvs), it's still pretty good odds for only 2k more.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 89j
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
3d5c7cqd55.80% 289,180370,855023,9672,096
20%22.15% 98,820114,75316951,66917,231
20%22.05% 98,135114,22316951,65417,290

Looks good for us at first, but they both cover us and there's a pretty good chance that at least one of them has better. If we're already ITM then yeah for sure rip it in all day long. But maybe not so much when we can just wait 1-3 orbits and be ITM. For his specific spot with about 1/3 pot bet at his check, you'll need some pretty solid reads on that guy to send it all in.

However the payout is pretty low from 10-18 so it might be worth it to just send it in here idk. I'd probably try to err on the side of getting ITM just for sanity's sake though tbh.

Last edited by lotuspod2; 02-19-2017 at 11:56 PM.
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Old 02-20-2017, 12:52 AM   #10
LarryHoover
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

well button folded so that last equity calc can be adjusted...

and yea, totally agree with your last point. That's a nother reason I idnt value cashing as much, b/c the 10-18 are so flat...hell even 7-9 were pretty low...

interesting spot for sure
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Old 02-20-2017, 07:19 AM   #11
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

If you want to nit it, do it pre-flop. With antes, it's a clear +cev call that I know. You don't really mention how far from money you are.

Flop call vs such a small sizing, re-eval turn.
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Old 02-20-2017, 08:50 AM   #12
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Interesting spot, I think I prefer xr the flop to calling

I could probably be talked into folding pre in certain bubble situations but its certainly not clear/cut, our hand is fairly easy to play on many flop textures, this happens to be one of the most challenging

This also looks like a pretty good squeeze spot situationally preflop, there is a lot of money in the middle and we do pretty well against a2
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Old 02-20-2017, 09:03 AM   #13
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

What is raising trying to accomplish? Squeezing pre is also very hard for me to understand, as we have a simple and good option in calling. I don't think there is anything particularly interesting even so far and I'd play it the way I describe 100% of the time.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:54 AM   #14
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Quote:
Originally Posted by amok View Post
What is raising trying to accomplish? Squeezing pre is also very hard for me to understand, as we have a simple and good option in calling. I don't think there is anything particularly interesting even so far and I'd play it the way I describe 100% of the time.
So the next best option to xr is call and shove most turns? X/c all turns? do we x/f any turns. We may be getting some value vs sets/straights/2p/smaller flushes, and normally we have escape outs when behind to a lo or straight flush.

Re: squeezing, calling is simple, and squeezing may be even more so. we will also no longer need to worry about many challenging and RIO postflop situations that can result when we call.
With m ~7 and dwindling, we may also decide there is excess value in trying to chip up (how close are we to next level). I think most times the squeeze folds out at least one player it should exceed the ev of calling.
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:03 AM   #15
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

If you are folding the flop here to a 1/3rd pot size bet then fold pre.
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:08 AM   #16
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
So the next best option to xr is call and shove most turns? X/c all turns? do we x/f any turns. We may be getting some value vs sets/straights/2p/smaller flushes, and normally we have escape outs when behind to a lo or straight flush.
I wouldn't shove any turns, as that doesn't make much sense to me (assuming you meant leading? Now that I think about it maybe you meant c/r). Definitely folding to some turns, I mean you could even argue folding to all except 6. It's not like he can profitably barrel any turn against a reasonable calling range. It feels like we are not playing the same game if you are suggesting raising a 7-high flush for value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
Re: squeezing, calling is simple, and squeezing may be even more so. we will also no longer need to worry about many challenging and RIO postflop situations that can result when we call.
With m ~7 and dwindling, we may also decide there is excess value in trying to chip up (how close are we to next level). I think most times the squeeze folds out at least one player it should exceed the ev of calling.
Yes, shoveling money in pre-flop with a weak hand has some merit if you have no idea how to play a marginal hand post-flop.
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:23 AM   #17
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Too much focus on cEV and not enough on ICM for the flop. Pre I actually agree with amok for once, calling is the simple and best option here. Calling flop feels like chasing a 6c or maybe even Ac, because there's a pretty high chance of villain cbetting turn or at least river. This isn't a cash game lol

This mtt plays kinda odd, 5 hours late reg with unlimited re-entries which 20% of the entire field jumped in during the last level. Late reg had just ended and it usually goes ITM quick since so many ppl with ~5bb, this one was no exception either. Trying to maintain a stack of 20k+ is kinda smart since you'll cover half or more of your table usually.

@larry - the flop equity still applies since 3 went to the flop, we're basically trying to dodge two ~22% bullets(with one now representing strength)

Last edited by lotuspod2; 02-20-2017 at 11:32 AM.
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:31 AM   #18
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

We only have 1 psb left behind if we call flop. I know there's not that much value in raising but villain can runner runner a lo or boat, and check behind on turns when he thinks he has no fe to raise.

Thats why I think I prefer xr to call. villain can pretty much play perfectly on turn, we won't always know whether to lead or not. Maybe we even get heroed by some strange hands.


As for squeeze.. our hand plays better hu than multiway, that part is not complicated. Squeezing can make our hand stronger and there is enough money in the pot to compensate for when we iso one opponent. I think if hero is not thinking about squeezing here he is missing out on a compelling line.
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Old 02-20-2017, 12:04 PM   #19
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Quote:
Originally Posted by lotuspod2 View Post
Too much focus on cEV and not enough on ICM for the flop. Pre I actually agree with amok for once, calling is the simple and best option here.
It's hard to comment on ICM without even knowing how far we are from the money, what the prize structure is etc. When commenting a tournament hand and I use the term "cEV", I use it because I want to underline it's not the same as EV, i.e. I am only saying that the play wins chips, not that it's necessarily a winning play in every stage of a tournament.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lotuspod2 View Post
Calling flop feels like chasing a 6c or maybe even Ac, because there's a pretty high chance of villain cbetting turn or at least river. This isn't a cash game lol
No part of this makes any sense. It doesn't matter if it's a tournament or a cash game, there is a part in your range that wants to call. I do not know where the assumption that villain barrels a lot comes from. Anyway, if we think he barrels too much, we obviously don't fold.

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
We only have 1 psb left behind if we call flop. I know there's not that much value in raising but villain can runner runner a lo or boat, and check behind on turns when he thinks he has no fe to raise.

Thats why I think I prefer xr to call. villain can pretty much play perfectly on turn, we won't always know whether to lead or not. Maybe we even get heroed by some strange hands.
You are afraid that against a call he plays perfectly. I'm pretty sure that it's much easier for him to play perfectly against a raise. We do have some kind of low back up, although of course it would be much better to have A237 with a 7-high flush.

The problem comes from doing things that reveal your hand, like for example leading the turn. I wouldn't have even thought about doing that if you didn't mention it. So yes, now if he wants to check and draw for free to his low, he can do it. It's not the end of the world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy View Post
As for squeeze.. our hand plays better hu than multiway, that part is not complicated. Squeezing can make our hand stronger and there is enough money in the pot to compensate for when we iso one opponent. I think if hero is not thinking about squeezing here he is missing out on a compelling line.
Yes, when the stars align you get it in close to 50-50. But what do I know about these games, maybe they just simply overfold to such squeezes.
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Old 02-20-2017, 12:38 PM   #20
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

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No part of this makes any sense. It doesn't matter if it's a tournament or a cash game, there is a part in your range that wants to call. I do not know where the assumption that villain barrels a lot comes from. Anyway, if we think he barrels too much, we obviously don't fold.
If he's value betting, then he's setting you all in eventually. If he has air, he's prolly still going to set you all in on the turn anyway because his chips are worth less to him than your chips are worth to you because of stack sizes. So you still have to make the same decision on the turn(with pretty much 0 extra info gained) and have even more of your chips trapped in the pot, almost committed by that point probably. That's actually a really good bet sizing if he's value betting tbh.

Why risk elimination for a bit of extra cEV? Yeah there's a point where the chips are worth the risk(thats why we called pre in the first place), but in this spot we can just wait and flip once the bubble bursts very soon. Like I said earlier, giving up a little bit of our original preflop equity isn't the end of the world lol...we were getting more than enough value to give up a few marginal/risky spots like this.
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Old 02-20-2017, 01:06 PM   #21
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Quote:
Originally Posted by lotuspod2 View Post
If he's value betting, then he's setting you all in eventually. If he has air, he's prolly still going to set you all in on the turn anyway because his chips are worth less to him than your chips are worth to you because of stack sizes. So you still have to make the same decision on the turn(with pretty much 0 extra info gained) and have even more of your chips trapped in the pot, almost committed by that point probably. That's actually a really good bet sizing if he's value betting tbh.
I don't really understand why you spend many sentences explaining that he might have it, or if he doesn't have it, he might bluff. Yes, this is poker.

If understanding spots like this really is so tough for you as you portray it, I suggest you to study some poker theory. It applies also in tournaments, believe me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lotuspod2 View Post
Why risk elimination for a bit of extra cEV? Yeah there's a point where the chips are worth the risk(thats why we called pre in the first place), but in this spot we can just wait and flip once the bubble bursts very soon. Like I said earlier, giving up a little bit of our original preflop equity isn't the end of the world lol...we were getting more than enough value to give up a few marginal/risky spots like this.
I don't think folding the flop is the worst play in the world, I just think it's worse than calling, simply due to strength of our hand i.e. where we are in our range.

I don't understand why you talk about bubble bursting very soon. No such info was given in the OP. If that is true however, just fold pre-flop.
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Old 02-20-2017, 01:23 PM   #22
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Quote:
Originally Posted by amok View Post
I don't really understand why you spend many sentences explaining that he might have it, or if he doesn't have it, he might bluff. Yes, this is poker.

If understanding spots like this really is so tough for you as you portray it, I suggest you to study some poker theory. It applies also in tournaments, believe me.



I don't think folding the flop is the worst play in the world, I just think it's worse than calling, simply due to strength of our hand i.e. where we are in our range.

I don't understand why you talk about bubble bursting very soon. No such info was given in the OP. If that is true however, just fold pre-flop.
You either didnt read the other posts or you're just trolling. Anyway this is pointless...later
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Old 02-20-2017, 04:41 PM   #23
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Kind of wonder who Villain is to give more specific advice but agree with Lotus here.. fold on flop as a default

Problem here is that Villain has perfect stack to ICM pressure us, so if we choose call flop think we have to check call it all off on turn if he bets again.....
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:27 PM   #24
LarryHoover
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Re: Questionable spot in $109 NLO8 mtt

Thanks for all the advice so far guys!

i should have added history. villain just doubled off me(roles were reversed) where he 3b shoved on my A65Ks with A4QT.<<<That's one i also had a question about. I raised/called his 14bb shove with my hand. It's obv a +cEv call and i simmed it vs a much tighter range than he was shoving:

ac5ckc6d 47.09% 169,458 282,578 39,518 115,892 29,851
10% 52.91% 204,521 277,904 39,518 175,740 29,851

But then again this is another spot where i'm wondering if raise/fold was correct given that i still have 50k+ if i fold. I had justu been so nitty (9/8) over the last hour on this crazy table that i couldn't see myself raise/folding this hand in LP.


As for hand and opponent in OP:

I had my HUD up but i forget what his stats were.

I think he was like 18/19 with 15 3b %
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