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Old 02-19-2018, 04:43 AM   #1
tonyk81
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pot odds required for runner runner low

It is mentioned on o8poker.com (http://www.o8poker.com/Strategy/keypercent.php) that when dealt two low cards (say A2) chances of making a low when there is one low card on flop are just 16% (please advise if this is inaccurate). This translates to roughly 5.5 to 1 pot odds.
So is it profitable to peal flop when getting more than 5.5 to 1 small bets on flop call in half the pot (given we are only going for low half of pot)? or should one consider pot odds on 1 small bet + 1 big bet (to account for the turn call) since we are going for runner runner?

also, odds of making low on flop with 2 low cards when holding 2 low cards is 59%. can somebody specify what that percentage would be from turn to river and what pot odds are required for it? it seems like it would be around 30% with pot odds of 2.3 to 1 but maybe more exact figures can be provided.
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Old 02-19-2018, 10:24 PM   #2
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

I like this question, and I think it's one that most FLO 8 players should commit to memory to prevent them from chasing lows when they're not priced in. I use CardPlayer's Odds Calculator to isolate a hand with only low potential (A29J) against a high only hand (AAKK) on a board with either one or two low cards for my calcs. I'll also substitute A23J for a calc of runner runner low w/ counterfeit protection. This may not be entirely accurate because it doesn't account for other hands being in play with low cards that reduce probability, but it's the best place I can start.

In this hypothetical, the probability of runner runner low on a one low card flop is 19.51% with A2xx, and 25.37% with A23x. As a general rule of thumb, I require a pot of at least 10 and 6 (small) bets respectively if I am going to peel a turn card with nothing but low potential. In the second scenario where we flop two to a low, the odds change to 63.41% with A2xx and 71.83% with A23x. You're basically priced in to pursue the low as long as you're getting even money, but I generally look for a pot of at least 4 (small) bets on the flop to justify a call, just in case I'm getting quartered by a similar draw.

As for the change from flop to turn, you have 40% equity for the low w/ A2xx and 47.5% equity with A23x. This time, you should look for the pot to have at least 4 (big) bets in it to make sure you are properly priced in, just in case you're getting quartered.

These are just general guidelines I keep in mind for myself when I'm playing. They are also considered in a vacuum, because I'm not considering equity from anything other than my low draw.

Does anyone have any different thoughts on how to approach your naked low draws in FLO 8?
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Old 02-20-2018, 01:12 AM   #3
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

In practice, we should also discount runner-runner los based on likely cards and the chance we get quartered (or worse) by the same low with a qualifying hi
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Old 02-22-2018, 05:25 PM   #4
tonyk81
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

Quote:
Originally Posted by X_IATR_X View Post
I like this question, and I think it's one that most FLO 8 players should commit to memory to prevent them from chasing lows when they're not priced in. I use CardPlayer's Odds Calculator to isolate a hand with only low potential (A29J) against a high only hand (AAKK) on a board with either one or two low cards for my calcs. I'll also substitute A23J for a calc of runner runner low w/ counterfeit protection. This may not be entirely accurate because it doesn't account for other hands being in play with low cards that reduce probability, but it's the best place I can start.

In this hypothetical, the probability of runner runner low on a one low card flop is 19.51% with A2xx, and 25.37% with A23x. As a general rule of thumb, I require a pot of at least 10 and 6 (small) bets respectively if I am going to peel a turn card with nothing but low potential. In the second scenario where we flop two to a low, the odds change to 63.41% with A2xx and 71.83% with A23x. You're basically priced in to pursue the low as long as you're getting even money, but I generally look for a pot of at least 4 (small) bets on the flop to justify a call, just in case I'm getting quartered by a similar draw.
Thanks for the insight ; seems like you are looking for 5 to 1 pot odds on the flop on a small bet only and not both a small and big bet since you are going to have to pay on the turn too (for runner runner).

Quote:
Originally Posted by X_IATR_X View Post
As for the change from flop to turn, you have 40% equity for the low w/ A2xx and 47.5% equity with A23x. This time, you should look for the pot to have at least 4 (big) bets in it to make sure you are properly priced in, just in case you're getting quartered.
given the equity to hit low with A2x on flop is around 59% (according to o8poker.com) it seems odd the equity from turn to river is as high as 40%. Can you explain how you obtained this number?
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Old 02-22-2018, 06:37 PM   #5
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81 View Post
Thanks for the insight ; seems like you are looking for 5 to 1 pot odds on the flop on a small bet only and not both a small and big bet since you are going to have to pay on the turn too (for runner runner).



given the equity to hit low with A2x on flop is around 59% (according to o8poker.com) it seems odd the equity from turn to river is as high as 40%. Can you explain how you obtained this number?
16 outs, 44 cards remain.
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Old 02-23-2018, 12:59 PM   #6
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

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Originally Posted by Nut Nut View Post
16 outs, 44 cards remain.
Not sure if you're rounding, but I get 36.4% for 16/44. Not sure how nitty to be, but a 3.5% rounding error could be enough to throw call to fold.
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Old 02-23-2018, 03:57 PM   #7
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyk81 View Post
Thanks for the insight ; seems like you are looking for 5 to 1 pot odds on the flop on a small bet only and not both a small and big bet since you are going to have to pay on the turn too (for runner runner).



given the equity to hit low with A2x on flop is around 59% (according to o8poker.com) it seems odd the equity from turn to river is as high as 40%. Can you explain how you obtained this number?
The Odds Calculator on CardPlayer.com requires two complete hands and a board to run the equities. In my examples, I use AAKK vs A29J to isolate the worst case scenario for your hand drawing to nothing but low potential. I will substitute A23J for when I want a hand with counterfeit potential. After that, I plug in a dry flop with either one or two low cards for flop equity calculation, and then choose a turn card that either brings in a back door low draw (for runner runner calcs) or bricks the low draw (for flopped low draw calcs).
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Old 02-23-2018, 04:09 PM   #8
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

If you're at the table and need a quick way to calculate odds in your head, I've always relied on something very simple:

On the flop, your outs are worth 4% each. On the turn, your outs are worth 2.5% each.
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Old 03-12-2018, 04:18 PM   #9
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

This is an excellent question and one I have spent a lot of time pondering myself.

Let’s say we have A29J and the flop is KK8. Here’s how we calculate the chances that we’ll make our low:
• On the turn, there are 45 unseen cards, and we need to see one of 20 nonpairing low cards. 20/45 = 44.44%
• On the river, there are 44 unseen cards; assuming a nonpairing low card came on the turn, we now need to see one of 16 nonpairing low cards. 16/44 = 36.36%
• In order to make our low, both these events must happen. So we multiply the chances of each event happening on its own to calculate the chances of both events happening in sequence. 44.44% × 36.36% = 16.16%

16.16% translates to odds of 5.2 to 1. However, it’s wrong to start thinking about pot odds now; this problem is more complicated than that.
• When we hit our low, we get only half the pot at best.
• According to the same website you linked to, there’s a 36% chance that someone else has an A2 also. So sometimes we will make the nut low and get quartered (or worse, though I’m not going to calculate the times we make our low but split it three or four ways, as these situations come up rarely and won’t change my answer by much).
• We can do a rough calculation of our equity on the flop as follows (this assumes no backdoor draws for high): (16.16% × 50% × 64%) + (16.16% × 25% × 36%) = 5.17% + 1.45% = 6.62%
• This translates to odds of about 14.1 to 1.

But the action isn’t going to stop there. There could be a raise behind me on the flop; there will likely be more betting on the turn and river. I could call one or more bets on the flop and one or more bets on the turn only to miss my backdoor low draw on the river, or I could be forced to call multiple bets on the river when it’s three-handed and I’m getting quartered. Implied odds need to be considered—meaning, if I make my hand, I stand to make more money than just my share of what’s in the pot now. But reverse implied odds also need to be considered—meaning, I could lose more than just one small bet when I miss.

Basically, if the action on the flop and turn is loose and passive—meaning that lots of players call one bet each—then my implied odds improve. But if the action on the flop and turn is tight and aggressive—meaning that there’s lots of raising and more folding—then my reverse implied odds worsen.

Consider a case where 6 players call 2 bets each preflop, the flop comes KK8, and now the 2 players who each have a King go to war with each other, forcing everyone else (except me) to fold. Do I really want to put in 4 bets on the flop and potentially 2 or more bets on the turn to chase my backdoor low three-handed? No, I do not, because the amount of money I’ll win the times I hit won’t outweigh the amount of money I’ll lose the times I miss.

Obviously, I would prefer to have A23x on a KK8 flop. Now the chances that I’ll make a low go up from 16.16% to 24.24%*; my equity on the flop increases from 6.62% to 9.94%† (again, this takes into account the times I get quartered but not the much rarer times I get sixthed or eighthed), so now I need pot odds of 9.1 to 1 to call.

And ideally, I would prefer to have some high equity as well: maybe a backdoor flush draw or a backdoor straight draw—for example, when I have A23x on a flop of KK4.

*This calculation is a little more complicated than 20/45 × 16/44. When I hit a nonpairing low card on the turn, I have 21 outs on the river, but when the turn card pairs one of my low cards, I have only 16 outs on the river:
(16/45 × 21/44) + (9/45 × 16/44) = (35.56% × 47.73%) + (20% × 36.36%) = 16.97% + 7.27% = 24.24%

†(24.24% × 50% × 64%) + (24.24% × 25% × 36%) = 7.76% + 2.18% = 9.94%

Last edited by agamblerthen; 03-12-2018 at 04:45 PM.
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Old 03-12-2018, 06:00 PM   #10
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

Quote:
Originally Posted by agamblerthen View Post
I have spent a lot of time pondering myself.
perhaps you'll find this perspective interesting


given: your a29j on a kk8 flop

to chase a bkdr low--
you see the turn 100%
the turn will be an unfavorable card 25/45, and will be a favorable low and allow you to continue chasing low 20/45.
the river will be an unfavorable card 28/44, will complete your low 16/44.

therefore chasing means that you will pay to see the turn 100% (the flop bet)
you will pay to see the river 44.5% (the turn bet)
you will pay to showdown 16.2% (the river bet)
consequently
you will lose just the flop bet 55.5%.
you will lose the flop and the turn bets 28.3%.
you will win a share of the pot(between 50% and 25%*)16.2% but it will cost the flop,turn and river bets .

*if we use the 36% figure for the times you are 1/4'd then your share of the pot is 41%.
.50*.64 +.25*.36 =.41


if hu, and you are calling bets,
then costs are flop =1sb, turn =2sb and river =2sb.
55.55% - 1sb
28.3% -3sb
16.2% -5sb

and equation to determine what the size of the pot must be to breakeven calling down.
.162(pot *.41 -5sb) + .555*(-1) + .283*(-3) = 0
.162(pot *.41 -5sb) = 1.404
(pot *.41 -5sb) = 8.67
.41pot = 13.67
pot =33.33

therefore
if postflop was entirely hu, just you and a single villain contributing, then 10sb went into pot postflop the pot would have to be >23.33 sb from preflop contributions for it to be profitable to chase.

if you can expect a 2nd caller contributing throughout then 15sb will go into the pot postflop and the preflop pot would only need to be >18.33 sb


you should be able to work it out similarly for other postflop situations and perhaps alter the 'share of the pot figure' depending on the number of players.
ie. hu perhaps the 36% figure of getting 1/4'd is too high.

Last edited by ngFTW; 03-12-2018 at 06:07 PM.
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Old 03-12-2018, 08:01 PM   #11
agamblerthen
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

I typically play in loose, aggressive games in which 6 or 7 players see most flops, regardless of whether there was a raise pre or not. It's not uncommon for me to see the action capped 8 ways pre. Typically, we lose an average of one player per postflop betting round. So if 6 or 7 players call pre, 5 or 6 players will call on the flop, 4 or 5 players will call on the turn, and 3 or 4 players will call on the river. (The bigger the pot, the stickier players tend to be.)

I almost never face the specific scenarios you've described: a bloated pot preflop that gets heads-up or 3-handed postflop. However, I agree that in those scenarios the reverse implied odds make chasing a backdoor low draw highly unprofitable.
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Old 03-13-2018, 11:21 AM   #12
ngFTW
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

Quote:
Originally Posted by agamblerthen View Post
I almost never face the specific scenarios you've described: a bloated pot preflop that gets heads-up or 3-handed postflop. However, I agree that in those scenarios the reverse implied odds make chasing a backdoor low draw highly unprofitable.
'reverse implied odds' typically refers to the odds of drawing, completing your hand, but unfortunately not the winning hand and as a consequence losing. whereas the implied odds are drawing, completing you hand and winning.
in drawing for the nut low, 'reverse implied odds' doesn't apply. you will either make your draw and win 'a share of the pot' or you will fold prior to showdown.

so rather than determining flop pot odds which don't factor in the future bets and future folds, my perspective was to provide the framework of a useful formula that would determine of what size the preflop pot must be when specific postflop betting takes place in order for drawing to the nut low to be +EV.



we can 'know' how often you will fold, and how often you will showdown.
we can estimate what your 'share of the pot' will be when you showdown.
the variables we don't know are the associated costs; the flop bet (cost to see the turn), the turn bet (cost to see the river) and the river bet (cost to showdown) and we don't know the size of the pot. the size of the pot is the sum of the preflop pot and the total contributions on the flop, the turn and the river.

where the preflop pot =pfp. the flop bet =fb, the turn bet =tb and the river bet =rb. and the number of players paying the flop bet is A, the number of players paying the turn bet is B, and the number of players paying the river bet is C.

then hero's 'breakevenEV' drawing to 'only' a bkdr nut low on the flop, of the type A2J9 on KK8, is

.162((pfp+A*fb+B*tb+C*rb)*.41 -(fb+tb+rb)) -.555*(fb) - .283*(fb+tb) = 0

simplify the equation to isolate pfp, the preflop pot, and you have the equation.


i didn't want to commit too much time to the post yesterday nor again today, today i'm not simplifying the equation and yesterday i didn't state it with variables but rather used numbers from a 'specific scenerio' to demonstrate.

you objected to the scenerio and seemed to fail to notice methodology. oh well. good luck

Last edited by ngFTW; 03-13-2018 at 11:26 AM.
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Old 03-13-2018, 08:49 PM   #13
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Re: pot odds required for runner runner low

You need better odds than that as you can get raised, quartered, or counterfeited
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