Quote:
Originally Posted by agamblerthen
I have spent a lot of time pondering myself.
perhaps you'll find this perspective interesting
given: your a29j on a kk8 flop
to chase a bkdr low--
you see the turn 100%
the turn will be an unfavorable card 25/45, and will be a favorable low and allow you to continue chasing low 20/45.
the river will be an unfavorable card 28/44, will complete your low 16/44.
therefore chasing means that you will pay to see the turn 100% (the flop bet)
you will pay to see the river 44.5% (the turn bet)
you will pay to showdown 16.2% (the river bet)
consequently
you will lose just the flop bet 55.5%.
you will lose the flop and the turn bets 28.3%.
you will win a share of the pot(between 50% and 25%*)16.2% but it will cost the flop,turn and river bets .
*if we use the 36% figure for the times you are 1/4'd then your share of the pot is 41%.
.50*.64 +.25*.36 =.41
if hu, and you are calling bets,
then costs are flop =1sb, turn =2sb and river =2sb.
55.55% - 1sb
28.3% -3sb
16.2% -5sb
and equation to determine what the size of the pot must be to breakeven calling down.
.162(pot *.41 -5sb) + .555*(-1) + .283*(-3) = 0
.162(pot *.41 -5sb) = 1.404
(pot *.41 -5sb) = 8.67
.41pot = 13.67
pot =33.33
therefore
if postflop was entirely hu, just you and a single villain contributing, then 10sb went into pot postflop the pot would have to be >23.33 sb from preflop contributions for it to be profitable to chase.
if you can expect a 2nd caller contributing throughout then 15sb will go into the pot postflop and the preflop pot would only need to be >18.33 sb
you should be able to work it out similarly for other postflop situations and perhaps alter the 'share of the pot figure' depending on the number of players.
ie. hu perhaps the 36% figure of getting 1/4'd is too high.
Last edited by ngFTW; 03-12-2018 at 06:07 PM.