Quote:
Originally Posted by watevs
when we get this flop after a flat pre and check, and he bets 12k, any reasoning of 'brazenly take chips" goes out the window. you seem to suggest that we have fold equity with a minraise here. i don't think so
Quote:
Originally Posted by billygstar
He raised pre which makes a gigantic difference.
Right. I don't think we have
much FE. Against a good LO8 player we should probably have almost none. At an $800 tourney maybe everyone else is a good LO8 player.
But the point is, I believe we shouldn't fold ever in this hand. We can check-call down or XRAI. I think the shove is better because we're very unlikely to check-call our way to showdown without being all-in, and even if we do, it means we were probably ahead. So even just FE 5% of the time is much much better than zero fold equity, plus we get all-in the times we're ahead too, not just the times they're ahead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by watevs
doubling up our stack in this spot doesn't double the $ value of our stack
Yeah, I way overstated my case (thinking about larger tournament structures) but I think folding with this much equity is still pretty bad, esp. in a split pot game.
It probably comes closer than many people seem to think though because everyone seems to just accept trying to fold to the money as a matter of course. Here doubling up
will increase our equity to a bit more than 1.5x our starting equity. (The OP doesn't give payouts so I made some up using a schedule from the Borgata.)
However the chips we've already put in the pot have already decreased our equity by almost 1/8 of our starting equity. We could solve the ICM problem for each outcome.
One more thing: Our stack size is a little awkward for confronting the big stack at our table since we're closer to many stacks below us. (My assumption was that the other table is a duplicate; probably not a good assumption.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Not sure if you've read the thread, but it's already been pointed out that against a super nitty range (3-10%) Hero has 46% equity. Hero needs 37% equity in order to break even in chips, so the cEV gained is far from small, it's 2bb even against an extremely tight range.
Right. Maybe I'll work through the math later for my own learning.
The point is folding isn't as atrocious as I thought because a bubble where 11 get paid isn't as flat as a bubble where say 50 or 100 get paid, which is what I had in mind. But folding still seems pretty bad since the chip overlay is huge.
Last edited by AKQJ10; 06-03-2018 at 03:46 AM.