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Originally Posted by Tryptamean
Yeah bio, I've lurked long enough that its no surprise buzz advocated the nitty line
In my usage and understanding of words, "tight" and "nitty" do not mean the same thing.
My understanding is "nitty" means "unwilling to take risks and playing only premium hands." Advocating a sensible fold is not "nitty."
You didn't tell us what the payouts are.
I'm assuming second place pays more than third place.
A typical payout structure might be something like:
• 1st; X dollars,
• 2nd; 60% of X dollars,
• 3rd; 40% of X dollars.
something like that.
Let's say first place is $1000. Then, typically second place is $600 while third place is $400. In that case there's $2000 in the prize pool.
All three players are entitled to at least $400 each. And the players are really playing for the remaining $800.
1013+1721+266=3000
0.34+0.57+0.09=1.00
0.34*800+0.57*800+0.09*800
272+456+72=800.
To my way of thinking, if a settlement were reached now,
Hero would be entitled to 400+272=$672
If BTN gets knocked out and BB wins all his chips, then both BB and Hero are entitled to $600 and they would be playing for $1000.
And then Hero would be entitled to 600+0.34*1000=$940 in a fair settlement.
In other words, even if BB wins all BTN's chips when BTN gets knocked out, Hero's fair settlement share goes up by $268.
the math: 940-672=268
Here Hero should be
much more interested in securing second place in the tournament than stealing the big blind.
The key to winning tournaments, I'm convinced, is surviving.
Accordingly, I advocated the
survival line.
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but I thought he had the right answer anyway... perhaps not because at least one person disagrees.
In my humble (honestly) opinion, stealing the big blind here is trivial and going all-in against an unknown hand held by BB would be an absolute
blunder. Fair enough for anyone to disagree with me.
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I'm going to attempt a more rigorous calculation, but my previous attempts have left me less than confident about the results. To me, the math itself is fairly easy, but realistic assumptions are tougher. First I'll just calculate how much he needs to fold to make shoving this hand +EV$. I'll take my icm equity for all possible outcomes: he folds, he calls/I scoop, he calls/chop, he calls and scoops. Then do a weighted average and compare to my icm equity of folding. Is ignoring 1/4s for simplification ok? Does the icm calculator in HEM apply to split pot games? Does this method sound reasonable?
Honestly, no. (Sorry). We have no idea what BB's cards are and we are not given an indication of how BB will respond to the shove. (I think how BB will respond to the shove depends on the interaction between the two of you and probably also on BB's card sense.
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Is there a simpler way to do it?
I don't know. I did it my own fair settlement way.
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I'm still at a loss about how to figure out what call/shove ranges should be, but at least that should get me closer.
All I really want is something practical to take away like "when you are shoving into the big stack after a short stack folded, you need to be much tighter/a little tighter etc"
OK. I can do that for you.
much much much tighter.
Buzz