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08-16-2013 , 10:53 PM
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Originally Posted by UnnaturalDisaster
As I mentioned before I was definitely expecting a downswing in 100s and having an overall downswing like this is something I was prepared for. It is not something that has effected me all that much other than I have to drop playing 200s for the time being. I mostly posted the graphs to make fun of myself/show people what kind of variance they can expect playing these. I'm seriously considering making a run at Supernova Elite next year playing a mix of O8 hypers/cash/mtts so I guess I better get used to the swings now.
How much time/tables do you think you have to put in on an average day to reach SNE? I imagine you would min-BI at all the medium cash game NL tables, and play as many 15+ hypers as possible?

Simple math: 1M VPP/365 days: 2739 VPP/day.

Regardless of how you intend to reach that mark, be weary of constantly multitabling over a crapton of tables as it can cause brain damage.
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08-17-2013 , 12:52 AM
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Originally Posted by WINNINGSTEK
How much time/tables do you think you have to put in on an average day to reach SNE? I imagine you would min-BI at all the medium cash game NL tables, and play as many 15+ hypers as possible?

Simple math: 1M VPP/365 days: 2739 VPP/day.

Regardless of how you intend to reach that mark, be weary of constantly multitabling over a crapton of tables as it can cause brain damage.
Likely what I will do is in January play around 7-8 hrs everyday playing all hypers from 15$ up alongside the NLO8 cash games from 50c 1 to 3 6 (I'll shortstack at 2-4 3-6 and buy in deeper in the lower games) At the end of the month I'll see how many vpps that nets me and then I'll make my decision. I may decide after January that it can't be done or would be just to life consuming and maybe aim for something a little less ambitious.
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08-17-2013 , 01:22 AM
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Originally Posted by UnnaturalDisaster
Likely what I will do is in January play around 7-8 hrs everyday playing all hypers from 15$ up alongside the NLO8 cash games from 50c 1 to 3 6 (I'll shortstack at 2-4 3-6 and buy in deeper in the lower games) At the end of the month I'll see how many vpps that nets me and then I'll make my decision. I may decide after January that it can't be done or would be just to life consuming and maybe aim for something a little less ambitious.
You can use the VIP calculator to get a rough estimate
http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/calculator/
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08-17-2013 , 01:32 AM
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Originally Posted by saman_come_on
You can use the VIP calculator to get a rough estimate
http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/calculator/
Thanks that is actually very helpful.
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08-17-2013 , 02:59 AM
Might be harder when stars lower rake for omaha games come January

Spoiler:
Ok i will wake up now
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08-17-2013 , 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by flipya4dinna
Might be harder when stars lower rake for omaha games come January

Spoiler:
Ok i will wake up now
Is that serious?
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08-17-2013 , 09:29 AM
lol no, but i think it has been pushed for by player reps at their annual meetings. I cant remember where i saw it but i have heard a stars rep mention looking at rake in hyper formats also, which would be nice.
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08-17-2013 , 09:51 AM


Abi: $10 with table selection. I cant believe this is actually happening
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08-17-2013 , 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by flipya4dinna
lol no, but i think it has been pushed for by player reps at their annual meetings. I cant remember where i saw it but i have heard a stars rep mention looking at rake in hyper formats also, which would be nice.
I've heard they are frequently forgetting about the split pot games at those meetings.
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08-17-2013 , 11:50 AM
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Originally Posted by bakyka


Abi: $10 with table selection. I cant believe this is actually happening
I'd say move down, even if it may hurt the ego. The downward trend is too clear to be ignored, imo.
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08-17-2013 , 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by plaaynde
I'd say move down, even if it may hurt the ego. The downward trend is too clear to be ignored, imo.
bakyka is one of the best players in hypers, so imo there's no reason to move down except if he's short on bankroll which I highly doubt, and there's too much value in $7 and $15 sngs to pass on.

I hope your bad luck turns around bakyka.
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08-17-2013 , 12:31 PM
Yeah im actually playing 2 limits below that my BR allows so no point to go lower. Funny thing the reason i am stucked on the 15s limit for a while now is because i was always afraid of downswings like this lol. I cant imagine what would i do if it happens to me on higher limits (see Juicys example).

Thanks Sam!
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08-17-2013 , 12:31 PM
Is a 70 BI downswing still normal? But ok, it's only 250 games. How did it go before this, maybe you have chosen to show the graph from when the downswing began, maybe it had gone well before that? Then this graph shows things from almost the worst possible angle.

I like you have that small upswing in the beginning of the graph, and also a break even section in the middle and in the end. That is much better to have than none at all for the prospects


But I would probably move down if nothing else for psychological reasons, even if I feel I'm a bit hard cooked, but that's me. By moving down you achieve two things: the players are worse and if you lose even then because of variance, you'll lose less because of the lower buy-ins. You prevent yourself from tilting. And not try to chase the losses, because it's a new game setting, you can start from zero so to speak.

GL however you decide to do!

Last edited by plaaynde; 08-17-2013 at 12:59 PM.
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08-17-2013 , 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by plaaynde
Is a 70 BI downswing still normal? But ok, it's only 250 games. How did it go before this, maybe you have chosen to show the graph from when the downswing began, maybe it had gone well before that? Then this graph shows things from almost the worst possible angle.

I like you have that small upswing in the beginning of the graph. That is much better to have than none at all for the prospects
I dont think 70 BI downswing is normal but it happens sometimes as you can see (and i can see). For me the biggest down was like 40 BI in the past i think. But im not a harcore grinder (played around only 4k hypers in this year and like 1k in the end of the previous year) so maybe this is the reason i have never experienced it.
This graph is from my last 4 days since i got back from vacation. Before that i was ruinning good (in terms of hypers).
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08-17-2013 , 01:30 PM
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Originally Posted by bakyka
I dont think 70 BI downswing is normal but it happens sometimes as you can see (and i can see). For me the biggest down was like 40 BI in the past i think. But im not a harcore grinder (played around only 4k hypers in this year and like 1k in the end of the previous year) so maybe this is the reason i have never experienced it.
This graph is from my last 4 days since i got back from vacation. Before that i was ruinning good (in terms of hypers).
Hmmmm. Think that bit is where it's at. I haven't played much recently because of life stuff, and cashing out a fair chunk, but one thing I learnt after taking a break last time round is to play lower. Which is what I am doing atm. Why? Because unless you are a grinding monster your ranges slip and you forget to exploit certain spots you did before taking the break. It takes a little practice before getting back into things. Lower you ABI until you get back to your best.
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08-17-2013 , 01:31 PM
If it's only 4 days it's easier. I'm only single tabling, so I couldn't take it without doing anything. You may as well continue for a couple of days and see what happens. But if this really started when you came back from the vacation, then you may have temporarily lost some of your edge on the vacation, can be a coincidence also though.
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08-17-2013 , 08:54 PM
Im going to go with taking a 4 day break hasn't turned him from a winner to a -24% roi player.
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08-18-2013 , 06:05 AM
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Originally Posted by flipya4dinna
Im going to go with taking a 4 day break hasn't turned him from a winner to a -24% roi player.
I agree so again, I think you miss the subtlety of the point that was being made.

It is my opinion that not all of that downswing is variance. It is my opinion that part of it may be down to taking a break and probably only playing his B game during some of those games.

I have experienced it myself more than once to think it isn't coincidence that I have had downswings after taking a break. So I always start back lower, self assess my game, and then move back to my standard stakes.
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08-18-2013 , 08:16 AM
It may be so, but over 250 games samples it is going to be impossible to tell. I mean lets presume he played terrible over this sample. Now presume he played as good as he has ever palyed during the sample, instead of being 70 buy ins down he may be 50 buy ins down, yet this same discussion will be happening.
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08-18-2013 , 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by bakyka


Abi: $10 with table selection. I cant believe this is actually happening
You will be fine big Z just keep trucking it will turn around.
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08-19-2013 , 03:36 AM
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Originally Posted by streityboy
I agree so again, I think you miss the subtlety of the point that was being made.

It is my opinion that not all of that downswing is variance. It is my opinion that part of it may be down to taking a break and probably only playing his B game during some of those games.

I have experienced it myself more than once to think it isn't coincidence that I have had downswings after taking a break. So I always start back lower, self assess my game, and then move back to my standard stakes.
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Originally Posted by flipya4dinna
It may be so, but over 250 games samples it is going to be impossible to tell. I mean lets presume he played terrible over this sample. Now presume he played as good as he has ever palyed during the sample, instead of being 70 buy ins down he may be 50 buy ins down, yet this same discussion will be happening.
I cant really say anything to this discussion I felt good about how i played although when im in a downswing that definitely affects my game in some way or other.
I will take a few days break anyway because of personal life stuff, maybe that will help

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Originally Posted by Omahaha
You will be fine big Z just keep trucking it will turn around.
Thanks A!
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08-19-2013 , 12:00 PM
Took a drink, it's monday after all, you need that to get through the week. Hypers are good when you are after kicking ass. **** the rest.
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08-19-2013 , 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by plaaynde
Took a drink, it's monday after all, you need that to get through the week. Hypers are good when you are after kicking ass. **** the rest.
Hehe i took a few yesterday, was enough for one week maybe even for two
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08-20-2013 , 12:26 PM
First twenty $1,50s look promising

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08-20-2013 , 08:05 PM
Just for plaaynde (I guess it qualifies as a complain as well ) here is my PT4 net adj graph for the last week. Again I'm not sure how accurate it really is but you get the idea.

average buy in 26.2

net adjusted +1076 results -4819

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