Quote:
Originally Posted by tcroz
BUT.... in hands where you hold the bare A2 there are 6 cards (the remaining As and 2s) that could hit either street and defeat your nut low. It’s not a simple 14/45 and then 14/44 calculation. 59% is the figure used in a prior post I believe.
Obviously this doesn’t factor into the river (either you hit the low or not) ... but should when calculating odds after the flop. 13% of the time (6/45) the turn counterfeits the nut low draw. My match could be off.
There may be times a live A or live 2 draw are the best river low draw I suppose.
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your hand =A2KQ, the board =85QJ, if river is an A or river is a 2 you do not have a low! (you didn't have a low on the turn)
your hand =A2KQ, the board =85Q if turn is an A or turn is a 2 you do not have a low on the turn! (you didn't have a low on the flop)
your hand =A2KQ, flop =85Q, if the turn river combo is A2 or 2A or A[9-k] or [9-K]A or 2[9-k] or [9-K]2
you do not have a low. if the turn river combo is A[3,4,6,7] or [3,4,6,7]A or 2[3,4,6,7] or [3,4,6,7]2 you do have a low it is just not the nut low, which in my explanation i did not say you would have the nut low i said "that you make a low by the river" and "complete the low".
in op's post its the same "a low is made" no mention of it being the nut low.
conclusion: much of what you have posted is nonsense.