20/40 mix, O8 round

Reads:

UTG is the action guy of the game; has raised first hand every opportunity he's had in the last orbit and a half (consisting of H and O), does weird, out-of-flow plays like donk a wide variety of hands on the flop, value towns himself constantly with overly optimistic raises, sees showdown even when it's obvious he's beat. Also has been drinking.

UTG +1 is a loose player who is coming in with tons of one way hands, especially versus this guy.

I'm UTG +2, UTG +1 recognizes me as tight, UTG does not.

I hold AK82

Action:

UTG raises, UTG +1 calls, I three bet and they call.

Flop (10.5 sb): J83

UTG donks, we call

Turn (6.75 BB): 4o

UTG bets, UTG +1 calls, I raise and they both call.

River (12.75 BB): K

UTG redonks, UTG +1 now raises, I...



Thoughts: My high is obviously no good here, but I think UTG +1 is raising most of his A2 on the turn, and UTG is 3 betting basically all of his A2, so I think I've the low end locked up. The question now becomes whether it's more profitable to cold call the river or 3 bet and hope UTG can find a call with a hand that's getting scooped for 2 bets.

raise because UTG calls with worse hands both ways.

also in practice on the occasion you can get a guy to psych himself out and fold a better high enabling you to scoop sometimes where you would have had no business otherwise. this doesn't at all seem like one of those times but when you're locked up for low and at worst you're getting quartered here (in limit) i think you should raise.

Sounds like a pretty good game.

Probably raise flop. Shrug-call for me on the river. If it comes back 3bets we can still think about 4!. If there are 5 bets allowed call also seems favored.

What makes you so sure you're not getting quartered?

I reread your descriptions of the players and the action, and I still think either one of these players could have an A2.

Maybe UTG didn't 3-bet the turn because he was waiting to see if he got counterfeited on the river. Maybe UTG+1 suspects you have A2 and didn't want to raise with his until he made a flush to go with it.

I'm inclined to just call here, but I don't think it matters much what you do. I suspect if you call, they will both reraise. And I suspect if you reraise, one of them will cap it and the other will call all bets.

I'm just calling. No one's folding if you reraise imo.

I will dare to comment, since my stakes are small cheese, but when I have nut low and weak high three ways on the river, I like the river to be two bets if possible. Bet and a raise to me is usually a call, single bet to me is usually a raise. Sometimes you will get quartered, obviously, I just rather the river cost 2 bets than 1 bet. So often one of the other two is stuck in the middle.

Agree that this hand will probably get raised behind anyway.

I'm not positive, but given the way UTG has been playing, he's almost certain to reraise the turn w/ any A2. Given I've the 2d as well, UTG +1 would need some very specific cards to have a flush worth raising + a nut low as well. And given the range of hands he's playing (I've seen him show down J533), it's just a low probability that he has nut/nut (or nut/near nut).

utg sounds like he would have 3-bet A2 on the turn. utg1 is almost always raising flop with A2 + FD, and if not there then on the turn, so i think he's a lot less likely to have it both ways.

either way no one's ever sure you're not getting quartered. but to me it comes down to utg sounding like a maniac and us trying to get value from him when utg1 doesn't seem as likely to have both high and low.

its not a terribly difficult situation to work out logically/mathematically.


with regard to getting 1/4'd:
hero must be getting 1/4'd twice as often as he's getting half the pot for initiating 'fresh money'* into the pot to be -EV if UTG is not folding.

with regard to calling/3betting:

you obviously call if you believe you are getting 1/4'd atleast twice as often as you are getting half.

otherwise:

if utg will fold regardless of your action there is no difference in EV between 3-betting and not 3-betting if you are getting half.

if utg will 3-bet if you call and 4-bet if you 3-bet there is no difference in EV because the pot gets capped regardless of your action.

if utg will call if you call, but will fold if you 3 bet, then you cost yourself 1/2BB by 3-betting if you are getting half.
however calling caps the pot at 2bets on the river.

when you 3-bet and utg doesn't fold the pot gets capped at either 4bets or 5bets whichever is permitted.
getting half of a 4bet capped river 3way showdown is 1BB better then getting 1/2 of a 2bet river 3way showdown.

therefore you can see, if you are getting half, that UTG has only to call the 3-bet half as often as he folds to the 3-bet for 3-betting to be the same as calling.

that is if he folds to a 3-bet less then twice as often as he calls a 3-bet it is +EV to 3bet when you are getting half the pot.


the relevant EV's change when you aren't getting half the pot 100% of the time, because some fraction you are getting 1/4'd, and consequently the 2:1 ratio between folding to a 3-bet and calling a 3-bet changes. but you can work that out when you decide on a probability that you are getting 1/4'd.

raise turn, call river

Given this, I'm comfortable raising.