NLO8: I limp ep with a marginal hand
Hero sees two hearts in his hand and two hearts on the board. There are 9 missing hearts and 36 missing other cards. From Hero’s vantage point, the three opponents can have anywhere from zero to nine hearts between them. The possibilities are:
hands | #ways | method |
---|---|---|
0h,12o | 1251677700 | C(36,12) |
1h,11o | 5407247664 | 9*C(36,11) |
2h,10o | 9150726816 | 36*C(36,10) |
3h,9o | 7908035520 | C(9,3)*C(36,9) |
4h,8o | 3812802840 | C(9,4)*C(36,8) |
5h,7o | 1051807680 | C(9,5)*C(36,7) |
6h,6o | 163614528 | C(9,6)*C(36,6) |
7h,5o | 13571712 | C(9,7)*C(36,5) |
8h,4o | 530145 | C(9,8)*C(36,4) |
9h,3o | 7140 | C(9,9)*C(36,3) |
total | 28760021745 | total |
For these distributions, the probabilities are:
hands | probability |
---|---|
0h,12o | 0.04352144 |
1h,11o | 0.18801264 |
2h,10o | 0.31817524 |
3h,9o | 0.27496626 |
4h,8o | 0.13257302 |
5h,7o | 0.03657187 |
6h,6o | 0.00568896 |
7h,5o | 0.0004719 |
8h,4o | 0.00001843 |
9h,3o | 0.00000025 |
total | 1.00000001 |
The probability of at least one opponent having a heart draw for each distribution is
distribution | probability |
---|---|
oh12o | 0 |
1h11o | 0 |
2h,10o | 0.08677506 |
3h,9o | 0.19497608 |
4h,8o | 0.13257302 |
5h,7o | 0.03657187 |
6h,6o | 0.00568896 |
7h,5o | 0.0004719 |
8h,4o | 0.00001843 |
9h,3o | 0.00000025 |
total | 0.45707557 |
The bottom line is ~45.7%. That’s how often as per my calculation and tabulation, considering the cards in Hero’s hand and the cards on the flop, at least one of three opponents who see the flop will have a heart flush draw.
I thought 45.7% was close enough to 50% to call it a coin flip.
I got that same result doing it another way too. And it jibes with a simulation.
yeah...my opponets actions and board layout told me i had the low...so lets just for the sake of arguments assume i do have the nut low..
All of the following, and more, are valid starting hands for one of your opponents here: A245, A246, A345, A346, A456,
Would someone play A45*? (In general, I would). Would someone play A46*? (I might, depending on *, the suitedness of the hand, my opponents, and the situation). Would someone continue after this flop with A45*? Certainly! Would someone continue after this flop with A46*? Probably.
However, that written, I think you probably have the winning low. But let's call it what it is, the probable (but not certain) winning low, the third nut low.
I don't want to call something what it is not "for the sake of arguments."
that gives me 3outs to the nut nut...and i guess it would be about an average of 4-5 other scoop outs (assuming better fds 1/2 the time)...and since my oppoenents will only randomly have a 4 w/their low draws i spose less then 1 scooped out amirite?
You can never have three outs to the nut nut when your cards are (KQ)(65) because to have the nut low you need two wheel cards. The five is your only wheel card.
Buzz
wow thanks a ton for that math buzz...i am actually surprised by that %...
i meant this question to be about what to do when ur in the middle and ops are showing weakess on a strong board...how do we max value? I guess everyone is so focused on the actual hand they aren't really focused on why i posted this...i really want to know if u guys jst call here with the wheel or raise and which one is better and why..i know what the hand is but assuing it is a wheel how would u proceed?
i know i don't actually have a wheel but my plan on the turn is to play it like i do have it, so the actual hand i currently hold doesn't matter and isn't the question
it doesn't really matter whether or not i have a wheel b/c i'm prepared to gamble that i have the nut low so this is sort of a wheel without a high
i know...fold pre...i got it...
i meant this question to be about what to do when ur in the middle and ops are showing weakess on a strong board...how do we max value? I guess everyone is so focused on the actual hand they aren't really focused on why i posted this...i really want to know if u guys jst call here with the wheel or raise and which one is better and why..i know what the hand is but assuing it is a wheel how would u proceed?
i know i don't actually have a wheel but my plan on the turn is to play it like i do have it, so the actual hand i currently hold doesn't matter and isn't the question
it doesn't really matter whether or not i have a wheel b/c i'm prepared to gamble that i have the nut low so this is sort of a wheel without a high
i know...fold pre...i got it...
You're welcome.
It's an interesting hand. ProPokerTools, in the cleverly designed and objective rating system, ranks the hand as a 27/100 hand. If, under certain conditions, we want to expand our range to play about the upper three tenths of the hands dealt us, seems like (KQ)(65) should be included in that upper three tenths.
And yet, at least in a full game, there are serious problems with the hand.
KQ65 rainbow is ranked as a worse than 69% hand. Clearly going from a rainbow hand to a double suited hand substantially improves the objective ranking of the hand. Part of that, actually a rather substantial part, is due to the baby heart flush draw. Yet actually playing a heart flush draw, should we flop one, is fraught with peril.
Puzzling.
I hadn't planned to post any math but since you asked...
There are different ways to figure probabilities. I posted what I think is a unique method, one that has probably never been seen before. But I can’t claim credit for it. It’s an adaptation of a method the Canadian mathematician Brian Alspach called “mini deals” (as I recall).
I can explain my reasoning if anyone has specific questions.
Doesn't mean an opponent who saw the flop with a hand containing two or more hearts would continue to a bet.
I can't give a general answer to that question. (I think "it depends.")
I don't know the answer to that either. For me, "it depends."
Hard for me to say exactly. I think "it depends." But in general I think I'd raise to try to protect the hand. If I already had flopped a wheel, the two-way nuts, I wouldn't want anything better, including a heart flush to become enabled on the turn or river. I think others might have a different default approach.
In other words, you plan to bluff. OK. That makes sense.
It may not be the question, but the actual hand you currently hold does matter.
I follow what you're writing - but whether you play the hand like a wheel or not, the hand isn't a wheel. The hand is probably, but not absolutely, the winning low - and the hand is probably, but not absolutely, a loser for high. That doesn't necessarily translate into a half pot winner, (although I'd guess a half pot winner would usually be the case after this particular flop with just three opponents seeing the flop).
Buzz
It's an interesting hand. ProPokerTools, in the cleverly designed and objective rating system, ranks the hand as a 27/100 hand. If, under certain conditions, we want to expand our range to play about the upper three tenths of the hands dealt us, seems like (KQ)(65) should be included in that upper three tenths.
And yet, at least in a full game, there are serious problems with the hand.
KQ65 rainbow is ranked as a worse than 69% hand. Clearly going from a rainbow hand to a double suited hand substantially improves the objective ranking of the hand. Part of that, actually a rather substantial part, is due to the baby heart flush draw. Yet actually playing a heart flush draw, should we flop one, is fraught with peril.
KQ65 | 69/100 |
(KQ)65 | 40/100 |
(KQ)(65) | 27/100 |
Puzzling.
I hadn't planned to post any math but since you asked...
There are different ways to figure probabilities. I posted what I think is a unique method, one that has probably never been seen before. But I can’t claim credit for it. It’s an adaptation of a method the Canadian mathematician Brian Alspach called “mini deals” (as I recall).
I can explain my reasoning if anyone has specific questions.
i am actually surprised by that %...
i meant this question to be about what to do when ur in the middle and ops are showing weakess on a strong board...how do we max value?
I guess everyone is so focused on the actual hand they aren't really focused on why i posted this...i really want to know if u guys jst call here with the wheel or raise and which one is better and why..
i know what the hand is but assuming it is a wheel how would u proceed?
i know i don't actually have a wheel but my plan on the turn is to play it like i do have it,
so the actual hand i currently hold doesn't matter and isn't the question
it doesn't really matter whether or not i have a wheel b/c i'm prepared to gamble that i have the nut low so this is sort of a wheel without a high
Buzz
i'm not really that surprised that this hand is in the top 30%...KQs is a really good high hand, and the 56s part of it gives the straight draw it's full potential...45 doesn't make a straight as often as 56
thanx buzz...for some reason i was thinking there should be math of how often u take the pot and what it's currently worth (100% of the pot is better then 50%), so i gues u gotta count the current pot size and anticipate how much will go in on the river if u just call,
i'm sure i would have gotten called in this particular hand by these villains but i think other villains will snap fold the 333 and possibly the AAA but i don't think these villains would have esp once i raise the guy behind will commit his short stack giving odds to the sb...but then again they aren't always gonna both have sets
i think in this type of spot u have to anticipate how much u can get off them on the river, in order to do the math so u have to predict what ur opps will do
i also think being in the middle is the toughest position to be in with the nut low, if you are OOP u can just keep pushing bets out, if you are IP u can do anything u want, but being in the middle u have to really think
such an interesting flop game too bad the rake costs make it unprofitable to play low limit cash!!!
thanx buzz...for some reason i was thinking there should be math of how often u take the pot and what it's currently worth (100% of the pot is better then 50%), so i gues u gotta count the current pot size and anticipate how much will go in on the river if u just call,
i'm sure i would have gotten called in this particular hand by these villains but i think other villains will snap fold the 333 and possibly the AAA but i don't think these villains would have esp once i raise the guy behind will commit his short stack giving odds to the sb...but then again they aren't always gonna both have sets
i think in this type of spot u have to anticipate how much u can get off them on the river, in order to do the math so u have to predict what ur opps will do
i also think being in the middle is the toughest position to be in with the nut low, if you are OOP u can just keep pushing bets out, if you are IP u can do anything u want, but being in the middle u have to really think
such an interesting flop game too bad the rake costs make it unprofitable to play low limit cash!!!
you guys can chime in now once u've gotten over ur pre biases...i posted this specifically on what to do, in general, when in the middle with the nut low (i know i don't HAVE the nut low, but my plan is to play it like i do, so actually HAVING it is irrelevant to my question)
...is calling better then raising and what if ur opps put in a block?
...is calling better then raising and what if ur opps put in a block?
forget pre, the hand still has no value on a board with a wheel. It may as well be 9999 save the 5 blocker .But the actions of the villains indicate that nobody has one so just make it 8 or 10 or w/e and be done with any further action. In the unlikely event someone calls you on the turn without a wheel you can follow thru on the river with the right read.
Oh and please stop trying to apply math here
Oh and please stop trying to apply math here
forget pre, the hand still has no value on a board with a wheel. It may as well be 9999 save the 5 blocker .But the actions of the villains indicate that nobody has one so just make it 8 or 10 or w/e and be done with any further action. In the unlikely event someone calls you on the turn without a wheel you can follow thru on the river with the right read.
Oh and please stop trying to apply math here
Oh and please stop trying to apply math here
Unrealzeal, you're the reason why I play the wheel and no redraws quite passively long handed, why bet and raise when someone with a hand I have crushed will do the betting for you.
Seriously though I wouldn't play KsQs3h2h UTG (6 or 9 handed) I think I might open it in HJ though.
As for the hand if the person does have 45 I don't mind his line at all. As played I would fold the flop, I would maybe call the turn praying for a miracle either SB slows down and UTG+2 doesn't bet or the 4s,4d rolls off on the turn.
Seriously though I wouldn't play KsQs3h2h UTG (6 or 9 handed) I think I might open it in HJ though.
As for the hand if the person does have 45 I don't mind his line at all. As played I would fold the flop, I would maybe call the turn praying for a miracle either SB slows down and UTG+2 doesn't bet or the 4s,4d rolls off on the turn.
you guys can chime in now once u've gotten over ur pre biases...i posted this specifically on what to do, in general, when in the middle with the nut low (i know i don't HAVE the nut low, but my plan is to play it like i do, so actually HAVING it is irrelevant to my question)
...is calling better then raising and what if ur opps put in a block?
...is calling better then raising and what if ur opps put in a block?
or better, shove pre to rep AAXX to balance out your range. It's a coinflip against A23X, anyway:
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation |
600,000 trials (Randomized) |
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5h6hQsKs | 46.06% | 179,647 | 339,090 | 950 | 48,811 | 313 |
A23* | 53.94% | 226,544 | 259,960 | 950 | 289,028 | 313 |
Seriously though, no one is giving you advice postflop because they don't have any experience playing such a crappy hand postflop. I'd raise/pot just to see where I was. If you really think you have the best low, no reason not to bet again on the river.
The problem with playing your hand like you have the best low is that you'd probably want to play 45 differently than 56, because you want callers with 45 and folders with 56.
pre: if you have really good post flop play this hand is playable from late position. That being said you are utg +1 with shorties in nlo8. DS crap is just that ds crap. (I know it looks very pretty)
post: If you are convinced you have the best low (there are 2 better lows) then you should raise as you are freerolling/getting them off a better high.
I'm not really sure why you are pretending you have the nut low. You have the third nut low with a 6 high flush draw with wheel blockers on a A23/A237 board with 2 opponents who have not shown much strength. Imo this is a very different situation then having the nut low. Presumably some non zero percentage of the time you will have someone with a better low (either the wheel or 46) and some percentage of the time you will in fact have the best low.
post: If you are convinced you have the best low (there are 2 better lows) then you should raise as you are freerolling/getting them off a better high.
I'm not really sure why you are pretending you have the nut low. You have the third nut low with a 6 high flush draw with wheel blockers on a A23/A237 board with 2 opponents who have not shown much strength. Imo this is a very different situation then having the nut low. Presumably some non zero percentage of the time you will have someone with a better low (either the wheel or 46) and some percentage of the time you will in fact have the best low.
anyway thanks for comments guy i really don't plan on playing much cash omaha but i think this is really an interesting hand...i sense buzz is actually interested in it too so i'll come back to it later i think it's pretty interesting that my "nut low" is not also the nut high, but my opps can think it is...so i think a value raise here is good just bump it up to 6/8 shove any river is def best
"this is not an offense at all but if u can't shift your paradaigm at all to accept that in this particular hand i have an unbreakable nut low 100% of the time then it won't really further the discussion at this pt
IDK about unbreakable but after this flop I'd like your hand till someone told me I shouldn't. That's why I'd raise it up and then fold if it was raised back, as I'd not think they have much at first (and I'd want to promote the crap heart draw) but give them credit for the wheel when they come back over the top.
If a 4, 5 or 6 comes off it really damages your hand for low, so unbreakable is a tad generous. Best low 100% of the time also is rather laissez-faire. Like I said, you should like your hand, think your low is probably best, and play accordingly till someone resists. Bear in mind if the board pairs that also is bad for your hand as you would then likely have no chance for high and a good chance to lose the low.
If a 4, 5 or 6 comes off it really damages your hand for low, so unbreakable is a tad generous. Best low 100% of the time also is rather laissez-faire. Like I said, you should like your hand, think your low is probably best, and play accordingly till someone resists. Bear in mind if the board pairs that also is bad for your hand as you would then likely have no chance for high and a good chance to lose the low.
It's not for value! The hand has no value! It's just a smallish turn raise looking for 2 folds. If you do get called and are confident theres no wheel and follow thru with a bet on the river it's just to get em off the high.
Correct.
No offense taken.
(But why do you keep insisting we see your frog as a prince?)
I don't think we've seen the word "paradigm" used in this forum before. You're evidently using it to represent what I'd call "mind set" or "assessment of the situation." OK. (I think I understand).
At any rate, no, I cannot shift my paradigm to accept Hero has "an unbreakable nut low 100% of the time." I don't think anyone else who has responded to you can do that either.
(The plain truth is a frog is a frog).
I'll give you this much: Everyone who puts money in the pot after this flop should give serious consideration to the possibility anyone else who puts money into the pot might have flopped a wheel. Four people saw the flop. Anyone who flopped the wheel surely would continue. So when anybody who has seen this flop doesn't have a wheel, I think he should seriously consider the possibility someone else has flopped a wheel.
Thus both of Hero's opponents who continue should be seriously concerned about the possibility Hero has flopped a wheel. I'll give you that much.
I don't know how an opponent who did flop the wheel would play. I don't think he would necessarily (1) do what I would do, or (2) do what you would do.
I don't think most opponents would play 45** starting hands, unless one of the "*" cards was a lower wheel card. (Having written that, I know players who think any two wheel cards are playable).
For each opponent continuing after this particular flop, I think a wheel is somewhere between a quarter and absolutely certain, depending on how he plays.
If someone would continue with a wheel, a set, or a second or third nut low, then in terms of relative probability, crudely
• a wheel is worth relatively 12, (from 4*3)
• a set is worth relatively 9, (from 3*3)
• 2nd nut low is worth relatively 16, (from 4*4)
• 3rd nut low is worth relatively 9 (from 3*3).
Then 12+9+16+9=46 and 12/46 is about a quarter. (That's where the quarter came from).
That's crude, but it might be the way I'd make my first approximation for anyone continuing holding a wheel - if I were holding (KQ)(65) after this flop in an actual game setting. (I don't know... I might use two pairs in place of the 3rd nut low... In either event, I'd have the wheel as somewhere between 25% and 100% certain).
As it turns out this time, both opponents who continue have sets. But that's not as likely as various other possibilities for opponents paying to continue after this flop.
I thought dprd made a good point with:
However, I think with or without a wheel I'd want either both folding or neither folding. Thus for me what to do would depend not only on whether I held a frog or a prince, but on how I thought both opponents would react.
Buzz
"this is not an offense at all but if u can't shift your paradaigm at all to accept that in this particular hand i have an unbreakable nut low 100% of the time then it won't really further the discussion at this pt
(But why do you keep insisting we see your frog as a prince?)
I don't think we've seen the word "paradigm" used in this forum before. You're evidently using it to represent what I'd call "mind set" or "assessment of the situation." OK. (I think I understand).
At any rate, no, I cannot shift my paradigm to accept Hero has "an unbreakable nut low 100% of the time." I don't think anyone else who has responded to you can do that either.
(The plain truth is a frog is a frog).
I'll give you this much: Everyone who puts money in the pot after this flop should give serious consideration to the possibility anyone else who puts money into the pot might have flopped a wheel. Four people saw the flop. Anyone who flopped the wheel surely would continue. So when anybody who has seen this flop doesn't have a wheel, I think he should seriously consider the possibility someone else has flopped a wheel.
Thus both of Hero's opponents who continue should be seriously concerned about the possibility Hero has flopped a wheel. I'll give you that much.
I don't know how an opponent who did flop the wheel would play. I don't think he would necessarily (1) do what I would do, or (2) do what you would do.
I don't think most opponents would play 45** starting hands, unless one of the "*" cards was a lower wheel card. (Having written that, I know players who think any two wheel cards are playable).
For each opponent continuing after this particular flop, I think a wheel is somewhere between a quarter and absolutely certain, depending on how he plays.
If someone would continue with a wheel, a set, or a second or third nut low, then in terms of relative probability, crudely
• a wheel is worth relatively 12, (from 4*3)
• a set is worth relatively 9, (from 3*3)
• 2nd nut low is worth relatively 16, (from 4*4)
• 3rd nut low is worth relatively 9 (from 3*3).
Then 12+9+16+9=46 and 12/46 is about a quarter. (That's where the quarter came from).
That's crude, but it might be the way I'd make my first approximation for anyone continuing holding a wheel - if I were holding (KQ)(65) after this flop in an actual game setting. (I don't know... I might use two pairs in place of the 3rd nut low... In either event, I'd have the wheel as somewhere between 25% and 100% certain).
As it turns out this time, both opponents who continue have sets. But that's not as likely as various other possibilities for opponents paying to continue after this flop.
I thought dprd made a good point with:
Buzz
Do u see now?
I am prepared to wager all of my chips that my two opps would NEVER play 45 this way on the flop...therefore they do not have it...it doesn't matter if they actually have it or not...for the sake of arguments let's eliminate it from their range..if we do that...look at how interesting it becomes...i gotta tell u this is looking to me like a genius flop read by me i'm kinda proud of myslef for making it on the spot
we are only concerned with hands containing exactly a 4...and we've eliminated the most important one from our opps range
now the only A4 hands that can beat us for the low can only get the five, switching our nut low to the nut high
that means we only need to look at hands containing 46
they absolutely have to have a hand to continue and since they have no nut low, they can only have high hands...all high hands that continue past flop action need two of the cards to make a hand...that leaves 4 cards that need to be exactly 46 randomly paired with a high hand on this board
cliffs:
only hands containing a 4 concern us
my read is they never have 45 based on their actions in the hand so far,
they need two cards to make a high hand eliminating 4 of the 8 cards remaining unseen that contain exactly a 4...
any 4 hand containing an ace, i am "unbreakable" because it's low makes my nut high
one of 2 randomly distributed hands have to have the exact combo 4 nd 6
i'm sure it's negligible
I am prepared to wager all of my chips that my two opps would NEVER play 45 this way on the flop...therefore they do not have it...it doesn't matter if they actually have it or not...for the sake of arguments let's eliminate it from their range..if we do that...look at how interesting it becomes...i gotta tell u this is looking to me like a genius flop read by me i'm kinda proud of myslef for making it on the spot
we are only concerned with hands containing exactly a 4...and we've eliminated the most important one from our opps range
now the only A4 hands that can beat us for the low can only get the five, switching our nut low to the nut high
that means we only need to look at hands containing 46
they absolutely have to have a hand to continue and since they have no nut low, they can only have high hands...all high hands that continue past flop action need two of the cards to make a hand...that leaves 4 cards that need to be exactly 46 randomly paired with a high hand on this board
cliffs:
only hands containing a 4 concern us
my read is they never have 45 based on their actions in the hand so far,
they need two cards to make a high hand eliminating 4 of the 8 cards remaining unseen that contain exactly a 4...
any 4 hand containing an ace, i am "unbreakable" because it's low makes my nut high
one of 2 randomly distributed hands have to have the exact combo 4 nd 6
i'm sure it's negligible
bah...buzz ninja edit my last post
it's so confusing to me sometimes..
we are concerned with A4 hands which can scoop us on 3 unseen cards
we are also concerned with 46, since that hand has us for the low
the probability that they actually have a combination of 46 or A4 is so low that the number of scoop outs outweighs ever folding the turn
this is based solely on them never having 45
since they do not have 45 (now remember here, i GAMBLING that they don't...i'm willing to wager my entire stack on my read...it's not really a gamble it's just an investment on my gut feeling)
i have the best low ahead of 4 randomly dealt cards...one of 4 random cards has to be exactly a 4 which is 11% of the time...of those 11% the remaining 1 card it's paired with to be exactly a 6 which will be 1/42 of the time
11x.02= 0.02% of the time one will have 46
if we double that for two hands we get .04% of the time they have exactly 46
this is the probability of the amt of times we are beaten for the low at the current moment
since at least one opponent always has an ace...the probability of him having a 4 dealt to his 2 other cards is 0.45%...this is cumulutive since either player could have it
the probability they hold A4 is 0.9%...iit will scoop us 7% of the time...therefore the probability that we get scooped by A4 in the current hand is 0.00063%
therefore the probability that we will lose all sides of the pot is <<<<<<1%
we are protected from losing to any a5 hand...that is the hand that switches the lead from low to high and we are unbreakable vs...so any A5 hand we are protected on the high hand, merely because we hold the 5 of hearts
so the question now is how often we scoop how often we chop
it's so confusing to me sometimes..
we are concerned with A4 hands which can scoop us on 3 unseen cards
we are also concerned with 46, since that hand has us for the low
the probability that they actually have a combination of 46 or A4 is so low that the number of scoop outs outweighs ever folding the turn
this is based solely on them never having 45
since they do not have 45 (now remember here, i GAMBLING that they don't...i'm willing to wager my entire stack on my read...it's not really a gamble it's just an investment on my gut feeling)
i have the best low ahead of 4 randomly dealt cards...one of 4 random cards has to be exactly a 4 which is 11% of the time...of those 11% the remaining 1 card it's paired with to be exactly a 6 which will be 1/42 of the time
11x.02= 0.02% of the time one will have 46
if we double that for two hands we get .04% of the time they have exactly 46
this is the probability of the amt of times we are beaten for the low at the current moment
since at least one opponent always has an ace...the probability of him having a 4 dealt to his 2 other cards is 0.45%...this is cumulutive since either player could have it
the probability they hold A4 is 0.9%...iit will scoop us 7% of the time...therefore the probability that we get scooped by A4 in the current hand is 0.00063%
therefore the probability that we will lose all sides of the pot is <<<<<<1%
we are protected from losing to any a5 hand...that is the hand that switches the lead from low to high and we are unbreakable vs...so any A5 hand we are protected on the high hand, merely because we hold the 5 of hearts
so the question now is how often we scoop how often we chop
i guess i'll try and explain it one more time coz it's very much levels of math and i'm past the age wehre i'm good at math so bare with me i will take u exactly thru my thoughts on the flop
as soon as i realized neither one had 45...i realized there had to be a way to connect two of their cards to the flop...it has to be two...it can't be less...there isn't a single hand where u either need 2 cards that are specifically not a 4 in ur hand...or an ace and exactly a 4 or a 5...
for example u can't do anything with QQTT u just fold...any hand must be an ace with a wheel or two pair or a set...a tiny random number are A4...and a miniscule number are 46
the fact that they don't have 45 is the point...it's the only 2 card combination that's locked...if they don't have it that eliminates four cards in their hands as non 4s...so the first question is how often a 4 will randomly appear...vs those hands its a wash...they only scoop on 3 outs...the second is if they have a 4 how often it's randomly paired with a 6...it's not even enough to worry about
as soon as i realized neither one had 45...i realized there had to be a way to connect two of their cards to the flop...it has to be two...it can't be less...there isn't a single hand where u either need 2 cards that are specifically not a 4 in ur hand...or an ace and exactly a 4 or a 5...
for example u can't do anything with QQTT u just fold...any hand must be an ace with a wheel or two pair or a set...a tiny random number are A4...and a miniscule number are 46
the fact that they don't have 45 is the point...it's the only 2 card combination that's locked...if they don't have it that eliminates four cards in their hands as non 4s...so the first question is how often a 4 will randomly appear...vs those hands its a wash...they only scoop on 3 outs...the second is if they have a 4 how often it's randomly paired with a 6...it's not even enough to worry about
gosh i'm writing so many posts and i don't even wanna play this game...ugh
so the other side of the coin is to figure out exactly how much we make in real dollars...i will comback and try to quantify how much we lose...assuming i'm right of course...on the exact dollar amount we lose when we get all stack in
the question now is how much we gain...when we add them together we will get the true ev
so buzz any idea how to calculate how often we scoop all side?
how often we scoop a flush
how often 4 unseen 4s will be dealt otr for the scoop
and we get true $ev on the turn
so now that i got that done...think about this as the virtual nuts if the the actual nuts...if u raise here ur opponents may think u have 45...even tho u don't u can play it like u do since u have a low that is freerolling, since by my math u get scooped <<<<<1%
if my math is correct, how do u play it?
so the other side of the coin is to figure out exactly how much we make in real dollars...i will comback and try to quantify how much we lose...assuming i'm right of course...on the exact dollar amount we lose when we get all stack in
the question now is how much we gain...when we add them together we will get the true ev
so buzz any idea how to calculate how often we scoop all side?
how often we scoop a flush
how often 4 unseen 4s will be dealt otr for the scoop
and we get true $ev on the turn
so now that i got that done...think about this as the virtual nuts if the the actual nuts...if u raise here ur opponents may think u have 45...even tho u don't u can play it like u do since u have a low that is freerolling, since by my math u get scooped <<<<<1%
if my math is correct, how do u play it?
whether the 6 in your hand is a 4 such that its (KQ)(45) instead of (KQ)(56) doesn't change your hot/cold equity much preflop in a 4 way pot but having the 4 rather then a 6 seems to make a tremendous difference regarding your equity on the flop. just look at equity distribution graphs on the flop.
whether you can infer by the way people have played their hands that they don't happen to have the greater equity, is different then saying its highly unlikely they could be dealt hands that have the greater equity.
but people fold the better hand to pressure all the time ( i certainly think its a leak of mine)
whether you can infer by the way people have played their hands that they don't happen to have the greater equity, is different then saying its highly unlikely they could be dealt hands that have the greater equity.
but people fold the better hand to pressure all the time ( i certainly think its a leak of mine)
No.
Since they're your opponents, you know them better than I do.
Whoa.
I'm not criticizing your read. I would read it about the same, except I'd also allow for the possibility either of them might have flopped the wheel.
You have eliminated it. I haven't.
Whoa.
You lost me there.
"Never"? That does not jibe with my experience.
I don't understand.
I (crudely) assigned a range in my last post. It seems to differ from yours.
Do you mean delete it? (I'll delete your last post if you really want me to delete it).
We're thinking differently.
I don't think that is correct.
11x.02= 0.22
11% of 0.02 is 0.002.
0.02*11%=0.22%
But I don't know where you got the .02 or the 11%.
I believe your math is wrong.
I think your math is in error.
I'm not able to follow your logic.
I don't think scooping or chopping is as certain as you see to think it is.
Buzz
OK.
Whoa. That supposition is probably usually correct, but it isn't absolutely correct. Honest.
That's more or less the same way I'm thinking too.
Yes, you need to use two cards from your hand.
You lost me. I don't understand.
You must mean after the flop. I'd fold QQTT to a bet after this flop, but I can't guarantee all my opponents will. But, yeah, QQTT was not included in the range I assigned after this flop.
Whoa.
But that's not a fact. Honest.
I think your logic is faulty here.
You seem positive you’re right - but I don’t think you are.
I don’t think you are right.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but Your math is not correct - and some of your assumptions are not correct either.
Buzz
I am prepared to wager all of my chips that my two opps would NEVER play 45 this way on the flop...
therefore they do not have it...
it doesn't matter if they actually have it or not...for the sake of arguments let's eliminate it from their range..if we do that...look at how interesting it becomes...i gotta tell u this is looking to me like a genius flop read by me i'm kinda proud of myslef for making it on the spot
we are only concerned with hands containing exactly a 4...and we've eliminated the most important one from our opps range
they absolutely have to have a hand to continue
and since they have no nut low, they can only have high hands...all high hands that continue past flop action need two of the cards to make a hand...that leaves 4 cards that need to be exactly 46 randomly paired with a high hand on this board
cliffs:
only hands containing a 4 concern us
my read is they never have 45 based on their actions in the hand so far,
only hands containing a 4 concern us
my read is they never have 45 based on their actions in the hand so far,
they need two cards to make a high hand eliminating 4 of the 8 cards remaining unseen that contain exactly a 4...
any 4 hand containing an ace, i am "unbreakable" because it's low makes my nut high
one of 2 randomly distributed hands have to have the exact combo 4 nd 6
i'm sure it's negligible
one of 2 randomly distributed hands have to have the exact combo 4 nd 6
i'm sure it's negligible
Do you mean delete it? (I'll delete your last post if you really want me to delete it).
it's so confusing to me sometimes..
we are concerned with A4 hands which can scoop us on 3 unseen cards
we are also concerned with 46, since that hand has us for the low
the probability that they actually have a combination of 46 or A4 is so low that the number of scoop outs outweighs ever folding the turn
this is based solely on them never having 45
since they do not have 45 (now remember here, i GAMBLING that they don't...i'm willing to wager my entire stack on my read...it's not really a gamble it's just an investment on my gut feeling)
we are concerned with A4 hands which can scoop us on 3 unseen cards
we are also concerned with 46, since that hand has us for the low
the probability that they actually have a combination of 46 or A4 is so low that the number of scoop outs outweighs ever folding the turn
this is based solely on them never having 45
since they do not have 45 (now remember here, i GAMBLING that they don't...i'm willing to wager my entire stack on my read...it's not really a gamble it's just an investment on my gut feeling)
i have the best low ahead of 4 randomly dealt cards...one of 4 random cards has to be exactly a 4 which is 11% of the time...of those 11% the remaining 1 card it's paired with to be exactly a 6 which will be 1/42 of the time
11x.02= 0.02% of the time one will have 46
11% of 0.02 is 0.002.
0.02*11%=0.22%
But I don't know where you got the .02 or the 11%.
if we double that for two hands we get .04% of the time they have exactly 46
this is the probability of the amt of times we are beaten for the low at the current moment
since at least one opponent always has an ace...the probability of him having a 4 dealt to his 2 other cards is 0.45%...this is cumulutive since either player could have it
the probability they hold A4 is 0.9%...iit will scoop us 7% of the time...therefore the probability that we get scooped by A4 in the current hand is 0.00063%
this is the probability of the amt of times we are beaten for the low at the current moment
since at least one opponent always has an ace...the probability of him having a 4 dealt to his 2 other cards is 0.45%...this is cumulutive since either player could have it
the probability they hold A4 is 0.9%...iit will scoop us 7% of the time...therefore the probability that we get scooped by A4 in the current hand is 0.00063%
therefore the probability that we will lose all sides of the pot is <<<<<<1%
we are protected from losing to any a5 hand...that is the hand that switches the lead from low to high and we are unbreakable vs...so any A5 hand we are protected on the high hand, merely because we hold the 5 of hearts
so the question now is how often we scoop how often we chop
Buzz
as soon as i realized neither one had 45...
i realized there had to be a way to connect two of their cards to the flop...
it has to be two...it can't be less...
there isn't a single hand where u either need 2 cards that are specifically not a 4 in ur hand...or an ace and exactly a 4 or a 5...
for example u can't do anything with QQTT u just fold...
any hand must be an ace with a wheel or two pair or a set...a tiny random number are A4...and a miniscule number are 46
the fact that they don't have 45 is the point...
it's the only 2 card combination that's locked...if they don't have it that eliminates four cards in their hands as non 4s...so the first question is how often a 4 will randomly appear...vs those hands its a wash...they only scoop on 3 outs...the second is if they have a 4 how often it's randomly paired with a 6...it's not even enough to worry about
so the other side of the coin is to figure out exactly how much we make in real dollars...i will comback and try to quantify how much we lose...assuming i'm right of course...
on the exact dollar amount we lose when we get all stack in
the question now is how much we gain...when we add them together we will get the true ev
so buzz any idea how to calculate how often we scoop all side?
how often we scoop a flush
how often 4 unseen 4s will be dealt otr for the scoop
and we get true $ev on the turn
so now that i got that done...think about this as the virtual nuts if the the actual nuts...if u raise here ur opponents may think u have 45...even tho u don't u can play it like u do since u have a low that is freerolling, since by my math u get scooped <<<<<1%
if my math is correct, how do u play it?
the question now is how much we gain...when we add them together we will get the true ev
so buzz any idea how to calculate how often we scoop all side?
how often we scoop a flush
how often 4 unseen 4s will be dealt otr for the scoop
and we get true $ev on the turn
so now that i got that done...think about this as the virtual nuts if the the actual nuts...if u raise here ur opponents may think u have 45...even tho u don't u can play it like u do since u have a low that is freerolling, since by my math u get scooped <<<<<1%
if my math is correct, how do u play it?
Buzz
god i'm a f'n idiot...i left out another piece of information that is crucial
buzz - sorry about everything above i'm a tool...i'm gonna let u take over the math...i forgot to mention a second read i had that is crucial to the puzzle
lets assume these two things are facts...then u can do the math and see if i'm right
my read in addition to them not having 45 exactly is that they both have high qualifying hands
in other words they have to have two cards in their hand that make a high hand on this board, and the high hand they make must be 2 pair or better
so now we have two constrictions
1. neither players has 45
2. both players have a high hand that uses two of their cards to make a two pair or better high hand
i forgot the other important read that both players had high hands...i was sure of this, so take it as true and what is the math?
buzz - sorry about everything above i'm a tool...i'm gonna let u take over the math...i forgot to mention a second read i had that is crucial to the puzzle
lets assume these two things are facts...then u can do the math and see if i'm right
my read in addition to them not having 45 exactly is that they both have high qualifying hands
in other words they have to have two cards in their hand that make a high hand on this board, and the high hand they make must be 2 pair or better
so now we have two constrictions
1. neither players has 45
2. both players have a high hand that uses two of their cards to make a two pair or better high hand
i forgot the other important read that both players had high hands...i was sure of this, so take it as true and what is the math?
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